Market crash: are we there yet ?

[wind_magic]

Originally Posted by Rickm505

Two words... Alan Greespan. This guy did it almost single handed. First, in reacting to 9/11 he dumped rates 5 points in 12 months. Some could argue this was necessary. What wasn't necessary was keeping them so low for as long as he did. This was the first step in the creation of the housing bubble.

Started much earlier. Even further back than the southeast Asian currency crisis, but that was a large part of it. When southeast Asian countries were having currency troubles they were dumping piles of money into our financial system to escape their own, our dollar was soaring, our Nasdaq market was soaring, it was the place to be. Remember flattering sayings like "the Russian ruble has turned to rubble" ? Remember when we had a shipping container problem because there were so many foreign imports coming in from cash starved companies to the buyer of last resort that we couldn't find a place to put all the empty shipping containers ?

Start here ... 1997 Asian Financial Crisis - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Then of course there is Greenspan to thank ...

Much of the dollar's change in fortunes started as a trend reversal off of a bottom that had 8$us/barrel oil and economies in South America and Asia that were so starved for cash in the late 90's they were standing in line begging for bailouts. That high dollar (and Yen) were so valuable at the time that they'd buy anything in the world that could be bought. It just couldn't last forever. And it hasn't.

Greenspan money leaving the Nasdaq and moving into a thinning NYSE ...

Then 9/11 2001 and a promise by an American President to fight a war AND not raise taxes ...



Can anyone find 9/11 2001 on this chart ?

[Rickm505]

Originally Posted by chucklesR

Off by a factor of a bit, the below is a bit old (2004 data) says the ENTIRE market, not just the 6% defaulting is oh, 1000 times smaller than the 775 TRILLION you quote:.

First use 2007 numbers, a lot has changed since 2004. Namely sub prime

Next where are your Hedge fund numbers? Dirivitives?

You can't play the numbers game without the multipliers. It's what makes everything so scary.

Just when I thought I'd gotten away clean... I got sucked back in again...(sigh)


This from a Bloomberg article last week concerning the decision to bail out Bear Stearns. I'd post the entire article, which is very good, but who am I kidding...who would bother reading it?

March 15 (Bloomberg) "...... The cost of doing nothing may have been even greater, say other former Fed officials. Bernanke is attempting to keep the nation's financial machinery working as record home foreclosures make investors reluctant to hold even bonds backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, government-chartered firms. The 54-year-old Fed chairman is also trying to contend with a worsening economic slump: Reports this week showed that retail sales unexpectedly fell and consumer confidence slid to a 16-year low....."

Now, what does this mean? anyone?

It means that there would have been NO MORE MORTGAGES...PERIOD.... If an investor converts to USD and then buys a bond where 6% default (Sailaway's Number...but it's correct, I checked), just how is he making money?????? He isn't, and he won't do it. MBS fund our entire real estate market. Fannie Mae... Freddie Mac... Bank of America... wells fargo....etc...... it's how the banking system works. Doesn't anyone read my posts? I know.... Stupid question ..

This is why Bernacke bailed out Bear Stearns and will bail out any other investment bank that defaults for that matter.

I have a main sheet to change out.... who bothers reading this thread anyway....

[sck5]

Somebody asked where I am. Im not avoiding the discussion I am avoiding reality altogether. Not looking at the computer much since I am in Florida diving with my son. Computers dont work too well underwater and we will be off sailing tomorrow.

So please dont let the sky fall until next week.

[sailaway21]

Hey Rick!

What's 94% of whatever was that figure you posted? I'll bet it's a lot bigger than 6% times the same number but then my math is rusty.

I can't imagine you're becoming weary. You've been talking us into recession since last summer. Now enough people are repeating it that it might well happen. Can't see you missing the sinking of the Titanic.

Here's an interesting thought, at least to me. I wonder how many people bought houses, houses they otherwise couldn't have bought, because of the liberal lending practises? Because I've got a sneaking suspicion that there are a heck of a lot more people out there with subprime mortgages who are paying their mortgage than are not. A whole passle of renters got to become homeowners a whole lot sooner than they ever thought they would. and I'm going to bet that most of them, the vast majority of them, bought a house within their means, even after the ARM re-set. And guess what, with the prices of houses falling and the like decline in interest rates, a whole 'nother bunch of people are going to get a whale of a deal on a house in the coming months. And guess who's going to get hurt in the whole thing? The pigs.

I'm stunned, no not stunned, I'm no longer stunned by any of your analyses, that you'd think Freddie and Fanny will be of help. both already had substantial problems before this mess. I'm not sure how dumping the leat credit-worthy on them is going to improve things.

[PBzeer]

Going back to the original question ..... Are we there yet?

[Rickm505]

Originally Posted by sailaway21

I can't imagine you're becoming weary. You've been talking us into recession since last summer. Now enough people are repeating it that it might well happen. Can't see you missing the sinking of the Titanic..

Someone finally understands what my predictions were all about. Seven months late, but what the heck.... But you miss the point. I don't need validation, I never did. I knew what was going to happen and like a deer caught in the headlights was just waiting for the actual event to occur. My mistake was to waste my time posting here in the first place. I had no idea that the general public had no idea how banking systems operated or how they were funded.

Originally Posted by sailaway21

Here's an interesting thought, at least to me. I wonder how many people bought houses, houses they otherwise couldn't have bought, because of the liberal lending practises? Because I've got a sneaking suspicion that there are a heck of a lot more people out there with subprime mortgages who are paying their mortgage than are not. A whole passle of renters got to become homeowners a whole lot sooner than they ever thought they would. and I'm going to bet that most of them, the vast majority of them, bought a house within their means, even after the ARM re-set. And guess what, with the prices of houses falling and the like decline in interest rates, a whole 'nother bunch of people are going to get a whale of a deal on a house in the coming months. And guess who's going to get hurt in the whole thing? The pigs..

Sadly, you're not grasping the concept. Last time... if MBS's fall in value, no one buys them because they have become a poor investment. An even poorer investment because the home the mortgage was written on is now decreasing in value. If no one buys them... no bank anywhere on planet earth makes mortgages. Clear enough? That is our banking system. It's why Bernacke is running scared. Sailway, you seem to understand what you want to understand and try and sweep inconvenient facts under the carpet. That carpet is getting pretty lumpy. Unless you grasp this concept, it's useless discussing this. I can only repeat myself so many times, and then I do get weary.

Yes, Wall Street made it possible for a great number of people to obtain their first home and correct again that they could not other wise afford them. Correct once again that the vast majority of subprime borrowers are paying their mortgage on time. If you bother to check, I told you this seven months ago. This is not the problem, it never was.

The problem is the investors. They were sold AAA rated bonds. AAA rated anything do not default ..... period. When only 2% defaults occurred last August, the investors ran for the exits. The entire credit market froze. It's still frozen and getting worse each week.

We have a confidence issue, (no one could trust the bond ratings) which caused a liquidity issue and now the ultimate...we now have solvency issues. The only way to fix this mess is to restore confidence. Like it or not ...that means the FED. I've typed this a dozen times in here. Nothing has changed.

Here lies the bottom line. The market is now doing large swings because some smart folks out there can do the math. The Fed has used 60% of it's liquidity and 70% of it's rate cutting ability to date. Contrary to rumors, they aren't printing money. I believe M3 has actually shrunk a bit. It's now a race to see if this turns around before the Fed runs out of ammo. People are placing their bets on the race. Watch Gold and oil pricing to see where the big money is going. My bet is on Bernacke.

Oh, and if the Fed does run out of ammo first...... we all need to read up on what comes next. I need to grab my 1930's economy history texts and read up if gold hits $1500 an ounce.

[Rickm505]

Originally Posted by PBzeer

Going back to the original question ..... Are we there yet?

Well, I thought we were, but now I'm not so sure.

[cardiacpaul]

Careful, these 'Pigs' are the same guys who contributed big time to Bush relection campaign and all have White House access

and all of them made the same contributions to the democratic party as well, thayts how its done.its called hedging your bets.

well, maybe they didn't considering what a wonderful job they did with the "hedge" funds.

Ummm... Banking regulators regulate commercial banks, not investment banks.

So, regulation would have been good?

lets see, unregulated investments, no backing from the fed, isn't that risky? don't "some people lose money"?
whats the small print?

something about "these gains may or may not continue, there is no guarentee of profit, your results may vary, blah, blah, blah... none of that print going on in any of this type of paperwork? gimme a break. y'all took a gamble. it paid off big, now its gone. some people even had to find a different line of work. go figure. get over it. shite happens.


quote=cardiacpaul;287733]So it would seem to the untrained, clearly stoopid simpleton boobs that don't understand why the sky is falling... anyone care to es-plain?[/quote]

actually I was making reference that merlin mortage, a company you had a little sumpin, sumpin going on with had its domain expire that day. but hey, thanks for answering a question no one asked. you're pretty good at that, isn't there some way we can blame bush for that?

it's not my fault if you don't read the posts you are supposed to be responding to.......

uhhhh, refer to above. you know, merlin mortgage.... ever write an ARM? Hmmm? how many are in forclosure now? make any money turning and burning those bundles of subprimes? hmmm, wasn't that around the time you bought a pretty good size catamaran?


This is was created the sub prime mess. I was working for a normal small bank at the time and we watched our volume took a nose dive as Wall ramped up their marketing program on the teaser loans and began systematically changing the way mortgages were made. It was a brand new ball game and if you wanted to play, you had to bring out the same products.

really, do tell... that wasn't at merlin was it?


And everyone posting here ignores the facts.

fact:
you were intimatly involved with a company called merlin mortgage.

Merlin Mortgage
Mortgage Bankers And Loan Correspondents 595 XXX Ave
MXXXXXX IXXXXX, FL

thats from "discoverbrevard.com"

oh, heres just one more...
Merlin Mortgage, Merritt Island, FL, 32953 - YELLOWPAGES.COM

says its AKA Amberdell computer technologies. hmmm.

do I have to rifle thru the state dept. of state for the DBA's or, you can always admit being a "former" mortgage broker that went tits up because your bidness went bye-bye... and thats why you blame bush for every cloud in the sky... thats why you blame everyone but YOURSELF and YOUR ROLE in this godforsaken mess... and you want a bailout? screw that, piss off, theres an opening at mcdonalds.

fact:
you have many times over blamed EVERYONE except the paper hangers for this mess
fact:
you throw your hands in the air, offer no solutions other than for calling bush an idiot, blaming greenspan as a bush appointee, even thogh he was there thru clinton, then praising the current guy and saying bush had nothing to do with it, and it doesn't really matter anyway. How many sides of the fence do you really sit on... wait, lemme guess, the one that allows you to make a pile of cash, then when it goes away, the one you can bitch about.

And never, not once have you said...
"you know what, I made a piss pot full of money throwing these ARMS all over and now the well has dried up, and I was at least partially to blame."

I'd just like to know when you start selling used cars or burial plots... so I can stay away. For me, you have zero street cred.

Why am I being an ass? because for over 80 pages I've listened to you bitch. i've listened you you whine. I've listened to every blessed word that spews forth. I've even alluded to your status as a mortgage broker long ago. you didn't come clean. So, screw it... there you go.


and the pigs... got ate.

[sailaway21]

Here's as good a conservative economic agenda as is out there.
The American Spectator

[Rickm505]

Originally Posted by cardiacpaul

fact:
you were intimatly involved with a company called merlin mortgage.

Merlin Mortgage
.

Are you trying to type Intimately? Hmmm.. No, I was never intimately involved, I had an ownership position, but was hands off. What's your point? In my very first posts to this thread I posted my bona fides. I've worked for Banks. Come to think of it, what are yours? You cover the same ground week after week never making a point. As a good capitalist I love having a vested interest in small companies. It's how I hedge my bets...but that is none of your business. And although I do appreciate you mentioning the side business, and the free advertising, lets get the link correct, shall we?

Originally Posted by cardiacpaul

and all of them made the same contributions to the democratic party as well, thayts how its done.its called hedging your bets..

NO, Paulson is the Treasury Secretary now. It's not the same thing at all now is it? Republicans are behind this mess and now it's republicans using taxpayers money to bail their buddies out of trouble. Along the way they've ruined my industry.

Originally Posted by cardiacpaul

So, regulation would have been good?

Dude, are you going senile? What a question. Look around and see what happened without it. The secretary of the Treasury has already announced the new regulations.

Originally Posted by cardiacpaul

you throw your hands in the air, offer no solutions other than for calling bush an idiot,.

Georgie Bushie is going to go down in history as the worst President this country has ever had. His legacy is a war no one could win, tripling our national debt, destroying the value of the Dollar, trampling on our constitutional rights, and a damaged economy. Just the fact that you are what's left of his following speaks for itself. Less than 29% of the country now supports this idiot. I can only suppose that it's because they are all senile. Seeing how you answer my posts in this forum, I can certainly see how you fit right in with this group.

I'm not going to answer your posts any longer. It's counterproductive. You are incapable of learning. This is a terrible disability and I wish you well with it, but I'm using the ignore button for you as my time is at a premium these days. I had to get up a 5:00AM just to write this post..

George bush's legacy

$480 Billion in loans and bailouts

and

350 basis points in Fed rate reductions

8/17/2007 50
9/19/2007 50
10/31/2007 25
12/12/2007 25
1/22/2008 75
1/30/2008 50
3/18/2008 75

Congress, White House feel need to do more on housing, financial regs as economic fear spreads
ALAN ZIBEL | Tuesday, March 25, 2008--WASHINGTON - Faced with rising economic anxiety and the high-profile rescue of a major investment bank, lawmakers are considering sweeping changes to financial regulation and a massive effort to buy troubled home loans.

March 26 (Bloomberg) -- Orders for U.S. durable goods unexpectedly fell in February, led by the biggest slump ever in demand for machinery that indicates companies are becoming more reluctant to invest as the economy heads into a recession.