Democrats versus Republicans

[wind_magic]

Originally Posted by craigimass

Also, unemployment is a far lagging indicator. There is NO DOUBT that it will be going up. Sadly, that sometimes means MORE profits for corporations, so the market reacts favorably. Remember back when the axe men came into corporations and reorged....wow, the stocks shot up.

The reason the market is off its lows right now has almost nothing to do with the economy.

[southernwind]

it has more to do with a out of control government, and a prez that has proposed more spending than the entire history of the country

[craigimass]

I'm glad you guys know all this........

But "vibes" tell me there is some slight increased economic activity. The manager at a sailboat manufacturer told me he saw some increased action. A builder I know in RI also sees a bit more interest.

I really enjoy those talking points about "more spending than in the entire history of the country" - without mentioning that the 2008 BUSH budget was the 2nd biggest in the history of the country and the 2007 was the 3rd biggest in the history, etc.......

C'mon - have at least a moderate degree of fairness. And I think we all understand the budget would not be so big if not for two wars and all the hand-me-downs.

But that's too dang obvious. If it needs to be explained, see my signature.

And the market being up or down has nothing to do with the economy? That's like saying the weather outside has nothing to so with the Sun. By definition, the market has to do with the economy....

I'm certainly not claiming skies are blue again...far from it. But when I have glimmers of hope beats when I am getting poorer each day. Thank goodness for little things. Heck, I could cash it all in now and run.....

[southernwind]

But that's too dang obvious

yea it was to me when you watch wall street react to the actions of the government. but then your signature does say it all.....when people are unsure they clamp down.

and no amount of "Intent" can overcome the lack of human confidence.

[PBzeer]

On Friday Rush Limbaugh, a staunch Bush supporter, took two separate opportunities to warn the president that he faced conservative opposition on some key issues that could hurt his chances of passing the rest of his second-term agenda. First was federal spending, which "is surging out of control," according to the Heritage Foundation's new "Mandate for Leadership." John Fund in the WSJ 01/31/05

A journey through past threads will reveal quite a bit of dissatisfaction with spending under Bush. It might be though, that Obama's proposed spending makes Bush look like a miser that has something to do with the concern over the unprecedented levels of spending to come.

[southernwind]

funny I was looking back and found that while the dow was on a decline it took a drastic nosedive after Jan when the government went on a spending spree...but I know in mass they have nothing to do with each other.

in fact look at the weekend before they passed the stim bill and look at wall street's reaction.

[wind_magic]

Originally Posted by craigimass

And the market being up or down has nothing to do with the economy? That's like saying the weather outside has nothing to so with the Sun. By definition, the market has to do with the economy....

The market is being driven by psychology at the moment, herd mentality, that's why it is so predictable - it has never been so predictable as it is right now. Go back and read some of the threads on these forums, more than one person was able to predict the 7000 bottom on the djia, and the reason that number was significant didn't have a thing to do with Obama, unemployment, home mortgages, or anything else. Indicators like the VIX are not economic indicators, they measure sentiment, that's why the market can rise on bad news that "should" make it go down for example. That's trading 101 stuff.

[southernwind]

driven by psychology at the moment, herd mentality

this is true but at the same time they can look at history and see a pattern in this mentality and predict the path that is most likely to happen......anyone that has been on a board when a news release comes out knows this.

[wind_magic]

Originally Posted by southernwind

this is true but at the same time they can look at history and see a pattern in this mentality and predict the path that is most likely to happen......anyone that has been on a board when a news release comes out knows this.

I'm not sure what you are saying. If you are talking about chart patterns being representative of psychology, sure, but I'm not sure that's what you mean.

[southernwind]

if you study psychology you would see a pattern form and find that the heard mentality only exist in people that only look at half the data. the point I was trying to make is that wall street shut down basically when they were "just thinking" about passing the bill. that sent a strong message that shoulda been heard but went ignored.