Greek referendum

[killarney_sailor]

Okay, so how about a thread that has nothing to do with Republican politics, the US Constitution, or Obama/Bush.

I am trying to figure out (without particular success) if calling this referendum is a brilliant stroke or the dumbest thing this side of a bag of hammers.

Scenario 1 - the Greek people support the rescue deal, don't they them have to get onboard all of the austerity measures and start paying their taxes? This could be the brilliant part.

Scenario 2 - they vote, 'No'. This is the dumb part (or not). The government would have to resign (who would want the job?) and then ??? I suspect that the EU might kick them out of the Eurozone (and perhaps the EU entirely) and would stop any bailouts. This would not be good for the banks in France and elsewhere that hold the debt, but the EU or individual governments could prop up the banks instead of propping up Greece. Greece defaults on its debts - but who does this hurt other than debtholders? No one is going to seize the Parthenon. A new Greek government would have to start over, running the country on a cash basis. Austerity would still have to hit and people would have to start paying their taxes, but the debt load would be gone. Do they have their bases covered either way? Perhaps I am talking myself into believing this might be a master stroke.

BTW, in the trivia department, PM Papandreou (sp?) went to high school in Canada while his father was a prof at York University (I took a class with him but don't have a memory of it being really good or really bad). Dad went back to Greece to be PM after the military rule ended.

[tdw]

Seems to me that whichever way it goes this is an unacceptably high risk strategy.

I'm presuming that it will take some time before the referendum is held by which time Greek may well have already gone down the gurgler and if it hasn't then once the refernedum is lost then it will then. Greece is stuffed whichever way it goes but maybe that is for the best. OTOH, if Greek goes then probably Spain and Portugal and most horrifying Italy will follow suit.

Ok, so what happens to the EuroZone ? Germany cannot possibly allow it to collapse although it may be reduced to France/Germany and the northern europeans (Holland, Belgium, Scandinavia etc). Problem is of course that removing Greece etc from the Euro is likely to see the entire banking system of those countries collapse.

So Greece will reject the austerity measures and the fan gets very messy very quickly thereafter.

[SloopJonB]

Originally Posted by killarney_sailor

the dumbest thing this side of a bag of hammers.

That about captures it. It is simply the complete abdication of responsibility by the government.

[BentSailor]

I agree, it is an obvious ploy for the government to shift the blame for whatever happens to the Greek voters. I would, however, debate that is it the "dumbest thing this side of a bag of hammers", as I see it being the smart way out of the predicament for the politicians (there isn't a smart way out for the nation). By far not the most responsible way out of it, but not the dumbest.

The Greek Govt was going to be excoriated no matter which way they go - either they have to put in harsh austerity measures or let their economy go the way of the dinosaur. The only way any of the blame was going to get shifted is to get someone else to make the decision. Given the situation, the only shifting possible is to the voter via referendum. Given a little thought about how politicians work, it actually shouldn't have come as much of a surprise...

[killarney_sailor]

European leaders (which is another way to say Merkel and Sarkozy) have just announced that Greece will be kicked out of the eurozone if the vote is 'No'

Step 1 is now complete.

[WouldaShoulda]

Originally Posted by BentSailor

The only way any of the blame was going to get shifted is to get someone else to make the decision. Given the situation, the only shifting possible is to the voter via referendum. Given a little thought about how politicians work, it actually shouldn't have come as much of a surprise...

They use the referendum here locally as well; then load it up with a bunch of double negatives to make sure no one knows what they are voting for or against!!

[SlowButSteady]

Given that it is the people of Greece who will have to live with the outcome of this decision (with the ramifications lasting years, if not decades), that's reason enough for such a vote, IMHO. On the other hand, referendum politics has had very mixed results here in California (which is quite a bit larger, both economically and demographically, than Greece).

[kd3pc]

Originally Posted by SlowButSteady

Given that it is the people of Greece who will have to live with the outcome of this decision (with the ramifications lasting years, if not decades), that's reason enough for such a vote, IMHO. On the other hand, referendum politics has had very mixed results here in California (which is quite a bit larger, both economically and demographically, than Greece).

were that true..? Seems just the idea that the referendum was called is/was enough to knock the US markets for a roll...

Does no one see any similarities (other than the mention of CA by SBS) to this situation in our own US..?? >50% on the dole and rising, 40% increase in those on foodstamps in the last 2-3 years, etc, etc...

The US politicians should be watching this closely and making the hard decisions to NOT follow this failed economic system......

sad, but will be even worse when it happens here.

[SloopJonB]

Originally Posted by WouldaShoulda

They use the referendum here locally as well; then load it up with a bunch of double negatives to make sure no one knows what they are voting for or against!!

They recently did that here with the referendum on the HST - if you wanted to keep it you had to vote no.

[SloopJonB]

Originally Posted by kd3pc

were that true..? Seems just the idea that the referendum was called is/was enough to knock the US markets for a roll.

That's reads like it's just the "voices" talking - pure paranoia.