Obama in Oz - the China factor

[killarney_sailor]

Something totally different from what has been talked about here, and I think potentially very important indeed. Obama gave a speech to the Oz parliament this week that was quite fascinating. He also announced that the US will station Marines and equipment in Oz (first time since WWII? Help me out on this on). his speech only mentioned the word 'China' once but what he had to say about some of the imporant issues in the region really were about China.

I think this may be a subtle beginning to an important shift in US foreign and military policies away from the War on Terror (how you can have a war on a concept I don't know) and toward the real threat for the 21st century. China has been spending quite a lot of its spare change on improving the quality (the quantity was never in question) of its military with its first aircraft carrier being launched and stealth aircraft being tested. This does not mean that they have ay intentions of attacking the US or Australia, but there is a growing threat in the western Pacific that, until now, the US have not paid much attention to because of Iraq and Afghanistan.

Obama has been pretty much of a bust domestically but he seems to have a pretty good idea of how to run a foreign policy (I won't mention Mr. Cain's comment about the possibility of China getting nukes - oops mentioned it.)

[kd3pc]

Originally Posted by killarney_sailor

Obama has been pretty much of a bust domestically but he seems to have a pretty good idea of how to run a foreign policy

Sorry, I just don't see any evidence of this at all...NO policy at all - could be his policy, I guess...or is it that Ms Clinton saves his ass all too often?

Even his domestic ones have been a massive failure, if they are implemented at all, or even could be....HAMP/HARP are two that could not be more epic fail if they tried.

what foreign policy has he made or identified with that has been successful...?

[WouldaShoulda]

Originally Posted by kd3pc

what foreign policy has he made or identified with that has been successful...?

Drone assasinations.

Not that there's anything wrong with that!!

[PBzeer]

Outside of ordering the killing of a few people, just what has Obama actually done in foreign affairs that has had a positive effect for the US?

[PBzeer]

One might wonder, what the terrorist factions in the Islamic world will be doing, when they aren't actively having to fight in Afghanistan and Iraq.

[PorFin]

I've got a problem with the assertion that stationing Marines in Oz is a response to China -- it just doesn't wash for me.

Here's why.

Since the mid-70's, US military presence in Asia has steadily decreased.

The Marines going to Oz are actually part of a plan to relocate forces from Okinawa. The claim that this is in response to China's growing capability is absurd -- akin to claiming that in order to keep an unruly next door neighbor in check, I'm moving a couple of blocks away.

Elsewhere in the region, the changes are more obvious.

Korea: The 7th Infantry Division left in 1971, leaving the 2d Infantry Division (2!D) as the only divisional unit there. Due to reorganizations, the 2ID lost bits and pieces. The 3d Brigade was relocated to Ft Lewis, WA in the mid-90's. The 2d Brigade deployed to Iraq early in that conflict, and from there was reconstituted back in the States. Currently only one maneuver brigade, the division's artillery brigade and aviation brigade remain in the RoK.

Philippines: Both Clark AFB and Subic Bay -- major installations -- are closed.

Guam: This is one of the few places that has seen growth. Some of the facilities/capabilities lost in the Philippines has been reconstituted there.

To paint it with a broad brush, the trend has been to send forces South or back home -- not exactly the "we're standing up to China" angle the media is playing today.

[WouldaShoulda]

Originally Posted by PBzeer

One might wonder, what the terrorist factions in the Islamic world will be doing, when they aren't actively having to fight in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Shoving bombs in their underpants and getting on planes to Detroit??

[SloopJonB]

Originally Posted by PBzeer

Outside of ordering the killing of a few people, just what has Obama actually done in foreign affairs that has had a positive effect for the US?

Libya, drones instead of invasions, getting Osama and the other top Al Qaeda people, getting out of Iraq, winding down Afghanistan, not invading any NEW countries, shrewd support of the Arab Spring movements instead of the traditional U.S. stumbling and blundering in those sort of situations. AFAIK, none of those actions has INCREASED foreign hatred and fear of the U.S.

How's he doing so far?

[PBzeer]

Libya - if all you're interested in is Ghadaffi being gone, then ya, you'd could call that positive. That it's looking increasingly like it will turn into an Islamist run state may not be quite such a good thing. But then again, that was a NATO operation that wasn't led by the US.

Drones, bin Ladin and sundry others - ordering people killed indiscriminately, including some of our own men. But, I did give him credit for that.

Iraq - the timetable was already in place before Bush left.

Afghanistan - winding it down, after he ramped it up. And, just in time for re-election season ... against the advice of his military advisors.

Not invading any new countries - at least with troops. Somebody is plopping missiles in my yard, I consider that an invasion. It's certainly a hostile action.

Arab Spring - will see how shrewd that works out. Notice, despite the same conditions in Syria as we supposedly had to respond to in Libya to prevent civilian slaughter, the death count there goes up daily. And we won't even get into Iranian nukes.

I will give him full credit for creating a perception of doing something, but when you boil it all down, it's more style than substance.

[danjarch]

Originally Posted by PorFin

I've got a problem with the assertion that stationing Marines in Oz is a response to China -- it just doesn't wash for me.

Here's why.

Since the mid-70's, US military presence in Asia has steadily decreased.

The Marines going to Oz are actually part of a plan to relocate forces from Okinawa. The claim that this is in response to China's growing capability is absurd -- akin to claiming that in order to keep an unruly next door neighbor in check, I'm moving a couple of blocks away.

Elsewhere in the region, the changes are more obvious.

Korea: The 7th Infantry Division left in 1971, leaving the 2d Infantry Division (2!D) as the only divisional unit there. Due to reorganizations, the 2ID lost bits and pieces. The 3d Brigade was relocated to Ft Lewis, WA in the mid-90's. The 2d Brigade deployed to Iraq early in that conflict, and from there was reconstituted back in the States. Currently only one maneuver brigade, the division's artillery brigade and aviation brigade remain in the RoK.

Philippines: Both Clark AFB and Subic Bay -- major installations -- are closed.

Guam: This is one of the few places that has seen growth. Some of the facilities/capabilities lost in the Philippines has been reconstituted there.

To paint it with a broad brush, the trend has been to send forces South or back home -- not exactly the "we're standing up to China" angle the media is playing today.

Your skipping over how the US is helping Vietnam fix up it's main port so foreign "American" war ships can make ports of call. Your also skipping over that even though we left the Philippines, we still conduct joint exercises with the Philippine military. And that's the plan. We're no longer building huge bases, instead we're building stronger alliances that are ready to use.

That combined with trade agreements is our way of reminding China that it's not the biggest dog in the Pacific, and it can't bully the smaller nations without getting US push back. Don't forget, China is a country that recently cut off exports of rare raw materials, their navy has been bumping into other countries boats. Those aren't good things. Australia is just being prudent in allowing a few US marines to share their bases and train together. It will make it that much easier to work together if we need to.