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  #111  
Old 05-09-2010
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Some interesting moves, where they are sailing etc at the 1500 position, including Morvans "fu" position. i would be he is not that far away, then again, makes it more of a guessing game as to where he went vs the others.He was not that far away from Sam, so if she is in eyesight.........

Off to catch a ferry, next look for me will be the 1900, then may be the 0500 tonight.

Marty
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  #112  
Old 05-09-2010
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Hummm! Something wrong, it was not Morvan that went furtive, but Le Cleac'h, the leader, (11.00 race time) and it was at night. If he has shut the lights and changed course nobody is going to find him.

Morvan, on my map, at 15.00 is not on furtive mode. Sam has closed on him and Jeanne changed course and dived South, losing the 2nd place.

I am going to look at the weather forecast to see if I can understand Jeanne's move .

Paulo
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  #113  
Old 05-09-2010
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Jeanne could be following Morvan no?!?! she might have better eyes during the night that we think with moonlight etc. This is a swag on my part. OR, as you are thinking, a storm or something up ahead.

Off to catch a ferry.

Marty
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  #114  
Old 05-09-2010
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A small translation from the AG2R site:

Today 7.00 AM race time:

"Like yesterday, today, they try to maximize the acceleration on the squals and try to avoid the edge for avoiding being trapped in the soft area on the back. … the trade winds now sets in the East is expected to gradually switch to the south-east before returning tomorrow in the Northeast. "We will then have a very hefty trade winds," said Eric Mas Meteo Consult. A situation that could allow Green Circle and Savéol to pick up the score." ….

Paulo

Last edited by PCP; 05-09-2010 at 02:28 PM.
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  #115  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blt2ski View Post
Jeanne could be following Morvan no?!?! she might have better eyes during the night that we think with moonlight etc. This is a swag on my part. OR, as you are thinking, a storm or something up ahead.

....
Marty
Marty,
Read post 112. It is not Morvan that went furtive. The guy that went furtive was the leader, Le Cleac'h. Le Cleac'h was the guy that was nearer to Jeanne and you could be right. Le Cleac'h can be just ahead of jeanne and jeanne can be following him.

Morvan (circle vert) is the leader till confirmation of Le Cleac'h (Brit Air) position.

Transat AG2R La Mondiale 2010

Regards

Paulo

Last edited by PCP; 05-09-2010 at 02:49 PM.
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  #116  
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Just got home, 5 am is up, LeCleac'h is still furtive, others are still open.

Have not really studied the positions for the day/night as of yet. It will be interesting of Jeanne is on top of LeCleac'h when his furtive time is up.

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  #117  
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Howwww!!! This is one of the best races I have ever followed.

Sam is slowly closing on Morvan. Now, with 230 miles to the Finnish she is 3rd at only 1.9 miles to Morvan (the leader).

Jeanne option to dive South has proved right, she is faster and is closing on Morvan (only 0.3 miles) and I bet she is going to overtake him at 11.00 (race time). We will see then, when Le Cleac'h goes out of "furtive" mode if he also went South, as Jeanne. If not Jeanne is probably in a best spot for the last miles.

At 11.00 it is possible that some of the front pack (jeanne) go "Furtive".>>

The next gamble is how to make the passage between the Islands. You can go very near the island to get the reflected wind (stronger) and then opening the course not to be shadowed by the Island, or you can pass at distance, trying not to lose any wind.>>

I am really waiting for that 11.00 report to see where is Le Cleac’h and if he still leads. That's a exciting race >>


Transat AG2R La Mondiale 2010


Regards

Paulo

Last edited by PCP; 05-10-2010 at 02:53 AM.
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  #118  
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The leader is still Le Cleac'h. He seems to have won some miles to Jeanne and the others the last 24h. Not much, 3 or 4 miles.

193 miles to the finish, Le Cleac'h has finished his furtive mode, and all the other three (from the front pack) went furtive. We will only be able to see them tomorrow at 11.00 (race time). They should be very near to Saint Barth (less than 50 miles, more than 10 miles).

Marty, regarding Jeanne and that move to the South, she was not going after Le Cleac'h. Quite the opposite, from the front pack it was Le Cleac'h the only one that covered Jeanne's move, going also South (now we can see it) some time after Jeanne.

That was a very good move and it is a shame that Jeanne was not on furtive mode. If Le Cleac'h had not covered it, Jeanne would have won some miles.

Recovering 13 miles in 190 is a dificult task for the pursuers, but not impossible, cause they know they can change course knowing that Le Cleac'h can not see them and cannot cover their moves.

Transat AG2R La Mondiale 2010

Regards

Paulo
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  #119  
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I'm trying to look at the moves over the last 24 hrs, but still a bit sleepy. I would agree, if Jeanne did do some gaining per say with that move, it is too bad she did not go furtive sooner to hide it. bad chess move!

I'll grab some breakfast and look over the moves overnight, at least for me overnight!

Marty
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  #120  
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I should probably before typing go back and verify the boats, but, it appears Sam and morvan were starting to go more south and west as they went furtive toward Jeanne and LeCleac'h. But we will not know the extent untill tomorrow obviously, not how they are attacking the islands and what they do to the winds/currents etc.

LeCleac'h looks like he is heading between the two big islands to the east, threading the needle if you will. I would think equal for others, but going to the north could prove to be good to, should probably go look at predicted wind eh? long day, need to get rolling vs watching a sailboat race.

I'm looking at the 3pm position time currently.

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