Without any hesitation I responded "satellite imagery." Satellite imagery is my succinct answer not because I put less value on pilot charts, text forecasts, or voice forecasts, but because satellite images are more universally available and they provide insight into surface and upper-air features, as well as oceanographic phenomena.
Satellite pictures, both visible (VIS) and infrared (IR) imagery are broadcast to us directly from NOAA's polar orbiting satellites. And there is no charge for accessing this data stream, just as there is no charge for receiving weatherfax or Navtex, or listening to SSB weather broadcasts.
This all may seem a little too involved, but another reason why I'd choose satellite images if I had only one source of weather information is because the information derived is both real time and data intensive. I can accurately analyze and forecast weather within hundreds of miles of me and conjure a three-dimensional mental image of large and small-scale weather events.
Just for starters consider that satellite images show low and high-pressure systems, their associated fronts and squall lines, tropical waves, depressions, storms and hurricanes, sea-surface temperatures, and ocean currents. Of course they'll also give you fog, sun glint (areas of calm seas), thunderstorms, wind direction and strength (the latter is derived from observing cloud orientation and grouping).
So, show me an example you say? Well, take a look at the VIS and IR images here. I downloaded these images from the Satellite Active Archive (SAA) earlier this week. In Figure 1 above, notice t the cloud-free skies behind the frontal system. This indicates clear, cold air, not unlike the weather on the day I gave my talk. And note the strong cold front moving over the southern tip of Florida. This front is moving to the southeast and is no longer a weather concern for sailors to the north.
In the infrared image (IR) above in Figure 2, the colors indicate temperature with green representing 65 degrees F and blue 55 degrees F. The temperature palette used in this overlay can be adjusted for any temperature range and for intervals as close as a tenth of a degree. To confirm the accuracy of these water temperatures I could consult the real time buoy data made available by NOAA on the Internet (www.ndbc.noaa.gov) or via phone: 288.688.1948 (Dial-a-Buoy).
|"By combining satellite data with buoy data and on-scene measurements you can locate features like Gulf Stream, eddies and meanders."|
On the day that I gave my talk in Annapolis, I downloaded some similar images and then cross-referenced the temperatures given by checking online with information from buoy 44014 (64 n.m. miles off Virginia Beach, VA) and the Chesapeake Bay Mid Bay buoy located at 38 28.4N and 76 22.8W. Both showed real-time temperatures within three to four degrees of the satellite data. By combining satellite data with buoy data and your own on-scene measurements you can easily determine offsets for calibrating satellite imagery temperatures and then precisely locate oceanographic features such as the Gulf Stream, eddies, meanders, and walls.
You can also use the temperature readings to track cloud top temperatures, which indicate if a weather system is developing and intensifying or weakening and dissipating. As a system grows its vertical height increases, which leads to colder cloud tops. But as a system weakens its cloud base erodes and the cloud height lessens, leading to warmer cloud top temperatures.
Shadows on VIS imagery, seen especially in early morning and late afternoon images, reveal cloud structure and density. Dark and well-defined shadows indicate dense and cohesive clouds, which are most often associated with developing systems, especially thunderstorms.
When winds blow greater than 30 knots clouds line up in rows. These wind rows (partially visible in Figure 3) show both wind direction and size of the wind field. If winds are greater than 30 knots and traverse a mountainous region, clouds begin to "roll" and align themselves perpendicular to the wind direction. Essentially the clouds are tumbling along and are unable to stay aligned with the wind field.
So on that day in October, using the images I downloaded along with confirmation from the real-time buoy data, I elected not to take my Boston Whaler out on the Chesapeake Bay for the afternoon. Though I dearly wanted a day on the water, I realized that the strong, cold winds were going to produce a hard chop and more spray than my boat can handle. But I also could see the strong high-pressure moving east which, if I had been thinking of heading offshore to Bermuda, would have confirmed that now was an ideal time to depart.
Satellite imagery is a powerful tool for weather analysis and forecasting. It is especially powerful for mariners, who are often out of range for weatherfax and real-time data. Though I would not by choice limit myself to one source of data—I would prefer to have imagery, charts, and text—my first choice would definitely be imagery. So, start watching the Weather Channel, they use satellite imagery for all their forecasts and tap into the Marine Prediction Center and Satellite Active Archives, and you'll be able to keep a better eye on the weather.
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