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-   -   Why is there an SCA tomorrow? (http://www.sailnet.com/forums/seamanship-navigation/105242-why-there-sca-tomorrow.html)

jimgo 11-01-2013 10:52 PM

Why is there an SCA tomorrow?
 
Here's the forecast for Barnegat Bay tomorrow:

Quote:


SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE TO 20 NM OFFSHORE AND DELAWARE
BAY

ANZ450-451-021015-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
612 PM EDT FRI NOV 1 2013
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT...
DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT LATE THIS EVENING...THEN BECOMING W
5 TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT...BECOMING NW LATE. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT...
SUBSIDING TO 4 TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAINLY IN SE SWELL WITH A
DOMINANT PERIOD OF 9 SECONDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS.
.SAT...NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 TO 5 FT. MAINLY IN SE SWELL WITH A DOMINANT PERIOD OF
9 SECONDS.
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING NW 15 TO 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT.
.SUN...NW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO
5 FT.
So, why does the SCA extend into tomorrow (Saturday) afternoon? I understand the SCA today and tonight...20 kts with gusts to 25 makes sense to me. But after midnight it drops to 5-10. Is the SCA "just" because of the waves? I mean, don't get me wrong, 5-8' isn't something I'd be excited about heading out into, at least at this stage of the game, so I'm not trying to diminish that or anything. I'm just trying to understand the logic.

What I'm really trying to get a sense of is whether its worth packing up my family to head out tomorrow. If the winds are 5-10, or even 10-15, we should be OK. 15-20 after midnight should be fine, too. And on the bay, we shouldn't have the bigger waves that are predicted.

paulk 11-01-2013 11:57 PM

Re: Why is there an SCA tomorrow?
 
Maybe that's the difference between a Small Craft Advisory and a Small Craft Warning?

Tempest 11-02-2013 12:44 AM

Re: Why is there an SCA tomorrow?
 
Jim, That's the coastal waters forecast. There's probably a SCA for the seas. They will probably still be lumpy.

You won't face the same conditions in the bay. Though with this low moving through it could bring shifting winds, with some gusts and a little slop. it wouldn't keep me away.
If the west winds show up as predicted, that's usually good beam reach sailing on BB..

jimgo 11-02-2013 12:48 AM

Re: Why is there an SCA tomorrow?
 
Thanks. That's the way I was reading the forecast, but wanted to play it safe.


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