Weather report accuracy? - SailNet Community

   Search Sailnet:

 forums  store  


Quick Menu
Forums           
Articles          
Galleries        
Boat Reviews  
Classifieds     
Search SailNet 
Boat Search (new)

Shop the
SailNet Store
Anchor Locker
Boatbuilding & Repair
Charts
Clothing
Electrical
Electronics
Engine
Hatches and Portlights
Interior And Galley
Maintenance
Marine Electronics
Navigation
Other Items
Plumbing and Pumps
Rigging
Safety
Sailing Hardware
Trailer & Watersports
Clearance Items

Advertise Here






Go Back   SailNet Community > Skills and Seamanship > Seamanship & Navigation
 Not a Member? 

Seamanship & Navigation Forum devoted to seamanship and navigation topics, including paper and electronic charting tools.


Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools
  #1  
Old 11-13-2013
Yorksailor's Avatar
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Pacific side of Panama
Posts: 444
Thanks: 10
Thanked 14 Times in 13 Posts
Rep Power: 5
Yorksailor is on a distinguished road
Weather report accuracy?

In another thread http://www.sailnet.com/forums/genera...one-wrong.html there has been much discussion on how a fleet of boats got into worse conditions than predicted.

As full time cruisers, who often go off-shore, we study the weather reports with great interest but we never actually believe them, or rather we assign the report a wide range of error...20 knots we interpret as 10-40 knots, 24 hours we interpret as 12-48 hours, 8ft seas we interpret as up to 16 ft or even higher in the Gulf Stream.

Recently we have been listening to Chris Parker's excellent weather reports and predictions. Chris Parker Weather: Watch LIVE!

Problems develop when the sailors fail to assign the wide range of error...Chris Parker is excellent it is just that the Weather Gods do not listen to his forecast and they make up their own minds!

"Remember, experience only means that you screw up less often!"

Last edited by Yorksailor; 11-13-2013 at 07:20 AM.
Reply With Quote Share with Facebook
  #2  
Old 11-13-2013
SVAuspicious's Avatar
Mermaid Hunter
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: on the boat - Chesapeake
Posts: 3,168
Thanks: 0
Thanked 84 Times in 73 Posts
Rep Power: 8
SVAuspicious will become famous soon enough
Re: Weather report accuracy?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Yorksailor View Post
"Remember, experience only means that you screw up less soften!"
You left out the part about when you do screw up its a doozy. *grin*

Establishing level of confidence in your sources is an important part of the equation.

I have generally high confidence in the guys at OPC and NHC. Regardless in reviewing synoptics I consider who the forecaster is. Some put more artifacts in, and others only locate the ones they are absolutely sure of. That means that interpolating between a surface analysis and a 48 hour forecast may be more useful than considering the provided 24 hour forecast. I just have more confidence in some forecasters than others.

A different tier of confidence goes to folks like the recently retired Herb Hilgenberg and Chris Parker (neither of whom have academic backgrounds in meteorology by the way). Aside from many years of experience, their biggest value is an understanding of their audience. Tailored analysis and advice is of great value. Herb and Chris both gave/give pretty conservative advice. Accordingly I use their forecasts more than their routing advice. *grin* I want to sail, not motor. For a retired couple that only make two passages a year I'd probably stay closer to Chris's routing.
__________________
sail fast and eat well, dave
S/V Auspicious
AuspiciousWorks.com
beware "cut and paste" sailors.


To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
Reply With Quote Share with Facebook
  #3  
Old 11-13-2013
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Cape Cod
Posts: 557
Thanks: 5
Thanked 18 Times in 18 Posts
Rep Power: 5
capecodda is on a distinguished road
Re: Weather report accuracy?

Speaking of personal forecast tailored for the audience, we've had good luck with commander's weather (no affiliation). IMHO, for a multi-day offshore passage, it's cheap insurance compared to some of the other stuff we pay for with boat bucks.
Reply With Quote Share with Facebook
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools

 
Posting Rules
You may post new threads
You may post replies
You may post attachments
You may edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
What frequency do toy dail in to pick SSB weather report and weather chart? rockDAWG General Discussion (sailing related) 10 04-10-2013 05:17 PM
GPS Accuracy and Price Mark Sloan Gear and Maintenance Articles 0 10-05-2000 08:00 PM
GPS Gets More Accuracy Jim Sexton Seamanship Articles 0 05-21-2000 08:00 PM
GPS Gets More Accuracy Jim Sexton Gear and Maintenance Articles 0 05-21-2000 08:00 PM
GPS Gets More Accuracy Jim Sexton Cruising Articles 0 05-21-2000 08:00 PM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:02 AM.

Add to My Yahoo!         
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
SEO by vBSEO 3.6.1
(c) Marine.com LLC 2000-2012

The SailNet.com store is owned and operated by a company independent of the SailNet.com forum. You are now leaving the SailNet forum. Click OK to continue or Cancel to return to the SailNet forum.