Imho, is inherently an unsafe practice to launch a vessel when a known weather danger is forecast just because ...
You must not sail much in the summertime, Rick, being in Michigan. Frequently, during the summer, a 20-30% chance of showers, thundershowers and thunderstorms will be forecast for an entire week - sometimes longer. A friend and I were caught out on Lake St. Clair by one of these, some 17 or so years ago. Yup, a "20-30% chance" was predicted. But when we went out, there was nothing in the area and no danger signs in the sky. We were about half-way across Anchor Bay when I looked over my shoulder, turned back and said "Uh, Doug? Look back." Oops! We quickly turned about, but it was coming on so fast there was no chance in hell we were going to beat it. So we weathered it.
No, I wouldn't go out if the prediction was there and either radar showed something approaching or I saw something on the horizon. But to refuse to sail, esp. in Michigan, because there's a "20-30% chance," means not sailing a goodly portion of the summer. And if you plan to cruise
the Great Lakes, well... you can forget that entirely if the possibility of inclement, even severe weather is something that would put you off.
Then there was the scheduled race day a couple weeks ago. A line of severe storms were approaching, so we stayed at the club and had a storm party instead
. As we were watching the very dark clouds approach, a large-ish powerboat went past the club, headed out. "Turn on your radar!," a number of people yelled. "Or look over your shoulder," I mumbled.