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  #91  
Old 07-29-2012
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Re: Thunderstorm in Chesapeake Bay

The only data point on Chesapeake Bay was 66 kts at Tolchester Beach. Thomas Point didn't see anything like that. There was more wind inshore. I do give more credence to NWS data than CWOS data.

I didn't see anything over 40 kts on the boat in Back Creek.
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  #92  
Old 07-29-2012
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Re: Thunderstorm in Chesapeake Bay

Quote:
Originally Posted by SVAuspicious View Post
The only data point on Chesapeake Bay was 66 kts at Tolchester Beach. Thomas Point didn't see anything like that. There was more wind inshore. I do give more credence to NWS data than CWOS data.

I didn't see anything over 40 kts on the boat in Back Creek.
Stingray point was 71 knots, about 3 times the wind energy you saw in harbor. Plenty to damage a boat with much canvas up. Several weather service articles confirm that gusts in excess of 100 knot have been recorded in other places.

From one-day Chesapeake data, for example, we could clearly determine that there has never been a tornado on the Chesapeake Bay. Foolishness, we would all agree, because they are short term and very localized. Many of us have seen waterspouts where wind speeds over 120 mph certainly existed. Wind gusts are like that too, often effecting areas of only hundred yards. Your data analysis is rather limited and your conclusions different from weather authorities.

So yeah, they are rare. If you are fortunate and chose your sailing days with caution, it is very likely you will complete your life without a violent expereince.
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  #93  
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Re: Thunderstorm in Chesapeake Bay

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Originally Posted by pdqaltair View Post
From one-day Chesapeake data, for example, we could clearly determine that there has never been a tornado on the Chesapeake Bay. Foolishness, we would all agree, because they are short term and very localized. Many of us have seen waterspouts where wind speeds over 120 mph certainly existed. Wind gusts are like that too, often effecting areas of only hundred yards. Your data analysis is rather limited and your conclusions different from weather authorities.
Okay I don't think we're communicating effectively. Let's start again.

I sail the bottom paint off my boat on Chesapeake Bay. I'm a professional delivery skipper and sail client boats a LOT.

In my experience people exaggerate wind speeds and wave height. That just is.

When I see a water spout (not terribly often on the Bay) I sail on a perpendicular course to the apparent track (radar is your friend) and haven't had one cross over me yet, so I don't see those winds. Spouts don't usually stay down over creeks and coves so you won't see them in most anchorages on the Bay; perhaps South Anchorage in Annapolis (maybe) or behind Tighlman (maybe).

For the run of the mill Chesapeake thunderstorm that might gust into the 40s that you let sneak up on you (bad on you) dumping the sheets keeps things under control while you roll up the jib and get the main under control. We're only talking about 20 or 30 minutes. There aren't many people out for a sustained weather system on the Bay.

Offshore is a different matter of course, but on the Bay there are so many places that it does make sense to duck into it's only the afternoon (sometimes morning the last couple of years) thunderstorm of short duration that sailors have to be ready for.

Fair enough?
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Re: Thunderstorm in Chesapeake Bay

Quote:
Originally Posted by SVAuspicious View Post
Okay I don't think we're communicating effectively. Let's start again.

I sail the bottom paint off my boat on Chesapeake Bay. I'm a professional delivery skipper and sail client boats a LOT.

In my experience people exaggerate wind speeds and wave height. That just is.

When I see a water spout (not terribly often on the Bay) I sail on a perpendicular course to the apparent track (radar is your friend) and haven't had one cross over me yet, so I don't see those winds. Spouts don't usually stay down over creeks and coves so you won't see them in most anchorages on the Bay; perhaps South Anchorage in Annapolis (maybe) or behind Tighlman (maybe).

For the run of the mill Chesapeake thunderstorm that might gust into the 40s that you let sneak up on you (bad on you) dumping the sheets keeps things under control while you roll up the jib and get the main under control. We're only talking about 20 or 30 minutes. There aren't many people out for a sustained weather system on the Bay.

Offshore is a different matter of course, but on the Bay there are so many places that it does make sense to duck into it's only the afternoon (sometimes morning the last couple of years) thunderstorm of short duration that sailors have to be ready for.

Fair enough?
Fair enough.
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