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Go Back   SailNet Community > Out There > Vessels Lost, Missing, or in Danger
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  #61  
Old 07-04-2013
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Re: 6 Americans, 1 Brit vanish at sea

Quote:
Originally Posted by smurphny View Post
It will also give them data to determine if any large ships were transiting the same area. The collision theory makes a lot of sense. Much more so than sinking because of the sea conditions.
Sorry, I'm not buying that one...

70' yachts getting run down by merchant ships are an extremely rare event... Here we have a boat that has already had its storm canvas destroyed, running off under bare poles before a storm, and you think it is still more plausible that they were sunk after colliding with a ship, rather than foundering due to storm-force conditions they had been battling?

anything's possible, of course, but I just don't see how the odds favor your scenario...

Last edited by JonEisberg; 07-04-2013 at 11:53 PM.
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  #62  
Old 07-05-2013
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Re: 6 Americans, 1 Brit vanish at sea

There are all kinds of things to hit in the Tasman - it can be a pretty treacherous place to sail..

Sunfish, whales, shipping containers.. there's a range of things to choose from out there that the folks on board, no matter how experienced, would have absolutely no control over.

A case of wrong place, wrong time.
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  #63  
Old 07-05-2013
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Re: 6 Americans, 1 Brit vanish at sea

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Originally Posted by JonEisberg View Post
Sorry, I'm not buying that one...

70' yachts getting run down by merchant ships are an extremely rare event... Here we have a boat that has already had its storm canvas destroyed, running off under bare poles before a storm, and you think it is still more plausible that they were sunk after colliding with a ship, rather than foundering due to storm-force conditions they had been battling?

anything's possible, of course, but I just don't see how the odds favor your scenario...
Except for a huge wave which could have rolled or pitchpoled them, any other scenario would have allowed time to activate the EPIRB. Capsizing would have to have been a complete surprise to them in that case because if the general sea conditions were that bad as to make them worry about capsizing, they certainly would have had PFDs on and EPIRB and survival gear at the ready. Something happened that did not allow for the few seconds it takes to grab and switch the EPIRB on. On a boat that size, they likely have had personal locator beacons as well. Even if rolled by a "rogue" wave, this boat would not have gone down immediately, allowing crew to escape from below. Something must have happened that sank her in seconds. No crew was found in PFDs which may suggest they were either not overly concerned about the sea condition or that they were all below and were struck by something, going down immediately. They could have come down on a floating object and split open as well. Coming down on a whale or container could conceivably split open a hull and sink it immediately before anyone could react or get out from below and don a PFD.
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Old 07-05-2013
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Re: 6 Americans, 1 Brit vanish at sea

From: AAP Breaking News
July 05, 20138:32PM

THE search has been called off for the American schooner Nina which went missing with seven people on board in the Tasman Sea.


The 21m sailing vessel was travelling from Opua in the Bay of Islands to Newcastle in Australia on May 29 with six Americans and one British man aboard.
It struck winds up to 110km/h and 8m swells and has not been heard from since June 4.
Extensive searching over the past 11 days of an area more than eight times the size of New Zealand has failed to find any trace of the schooner.
No more searching is planned unless new information comes to light, Rescue Co-ordination Centre New Zealand operations manager John Seward said on Friday.
But radio broadcasts will continue to be made in New Zealand and Australia in the search for new information, he said.
  #65  
Old 07-05-2013
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Re: 6 Americans, 1 Brit vanish at sea

I do so love the thread title, which I assume was taken directly from the Evening Nooze.

Seven crew missing! Good lord, this must be the Flying Dutchman, because no one mentions a vessel is missing.

Seven crew are not missing, a vessel with all souls on board is missing. There IS a big difference, because vessels have been found with no one onboard. "Vessel found at sea, seven crew missing with no trace!" would be bigger news.
  #66  
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Re: 6 Americans, 1 Brit vanish at sea

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Originally Posted by hellosailor View Post
I do so love the thread title, which I assume was taken directly from the Evening Nooze.

Seven crew missing! Good lord, this must be the Flying Dutchman, because no one mentions a vessel is missing.

Seven crew are not missing, a vessel with all souls on board is missing. There IS a big difference, because vessels have been found with no one onboard. "Vessel found at sea, seven crew missing with no trace!" would be bigger news.
Not much to love in that thread title.
  #67  
Old 07-05-2013
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Re: 6 Americans, 1 Brit vanish at sea

I suppose the woodies here refuse to accept the MOST likely scenario of the boat failing and splitting up in seconds. Otherwise pfds or epirbs would have been activated.
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  #68  
Old 07-06-2013
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Re: 6 Americans, 1 Brit vanish at sea

Obviously, unless somebody survived and is found, we will never know. So, what in the hell is all the guesswork acheiving? Wood failing, containers, whales, Japanese Tsumani, whatever. People and a beautiful vessel seem to be lost. End of story unless you can prove something!
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  #69  
Old 07-06-2013
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Re: 6 Americans, 1 Brit vanish at sea

Quote:
Originally Posted by smurphny View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by JonEisberg
Sorry, I'm not buying that one...

70' yachts getting run down by merchant ships are an extremely rare event... Here we have a boat that has already had its storm canvas destroyed, running off under bare poles before a storm, and you think it is still more plausible that they were sunk after colliding with a ship, rather than foundering due to storm-force conditions they had been battling?

anything's possible, of course, but I just don't see how the odds favor your scenario...

Except for a huge wave which could have rolled or pitchpoled them, any other scenario would have allowed time to activate the EPIRB. Capsizing would have to have been a complete surprise to them in that case because if the general sea conditions were that bad as to make them worry about capsizing, they certainly would have had PFDs on and EPIRB and survival gear at the ready. Something happened that did not allow for the few seconds it takes to grab and switch the EPIRB on.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Harborless View Post
I suppose the woodies here refuse to accept the MOST likely scenario of the boat failing and splitting up in seconds. Otherwise pfds or epirbs would have been activated.
These arguments are largely based upon the assumption that EPIRBs never fail to activate, or the system is somehow immune to failure...

I believe that's a mistaken assumption...

EPIRBs Ain?t Necessarily EPIRB-ing Ľ Maritime Accident Casebook

Last edited by JonEisberg; 07-06-2013 at 10:29 AM.
  #70  
Old 07-06-2013
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Re: 6 Americans, 1 Brit vanish at sea

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Originally Posted by JonEisberg View Post
I believe that's a mistaken assumption...
Yes, and in four out of the five demonstrations of liferaft use by inflating just expired rafts for repack, the raft failed to inflate.

BTW, I'm getting kind of tired of the insistence by "Clueless" that we all recognize spontaneous disintegration of the old hull being the "most probable cause". All scenarios are possible and we won't know unless a survivor or definitive piece of debris shows up.

We can however, rank the probabilities even if roughly. That ranking will change with certain assumptions. If you assume that the EPIRB would work, as they usually do, things sudden and catastrophic move up the list.

Historically, speaking as one who has studied large sailing vessel losses fairly extensively over the years, structure failure due to normal wave action alone seldom happens suddenly enough in vessels of this size that a working EPIRB could not have been activated. It can't be ruled out but would be less likely in a vessel that has been maintained as well as it appears to have been than in many that have gone down slowly.

Even the infamous Raw Faith, built by a know nothing out of 8 foot pallet boards scabbed together with roofing tar, flooded and floated for hours gradually leaking until the crew were taken off in the chopper.

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