6 Americans, 1 Brit vanish at sea - Page 7 - SailNet Community
 72Likes
 
LinkBack Thread Tools
post #61 of 196 Old 07-04-2013
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 4,794
Thanks: 1
Thanked 201 Times in 166 Posts
Rep Power: 5
 
Re: 6 Americans, 1 Brit vanish at sea

Quote:
Originally Posted by smurphny View Post
It will also give them data to determine if any large ships were transiting the same area. The collision theory makes a lot of sense. Much more so than sinking because of the sea conditions.
Sorry, I'm not buying that one...

70' yachts getting run down by merchant ships are an extremely rare event... Here we have a boat that has already had its storm canvas destroyed, running off under bare poles before a storm, and you think it is still more plausible that they were sunk after colliding with a ship, rather than foundering due to storm-force conditions they had been battling?

anything's possible, of course, but I just don't see how the odds favor your scenario...

Last edited by JonEisberg; 07-04-2013 at 11:53 PM.
JonEisberg is offline  
The Following User Says Thank You to JonEisberg For This Useful Post:
DJR351 (07-05-2013)
Sponsored Links
Advertisement
 
post #62 of 196 Old 07-05-2013
Once known as Hartley18
 
Classic30's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 4,859
Thanks: 46
Thanked 65 Times in 65 Posts
Rep Power: 10
   
Dock
Re: 6 Americans, 1 Brit vanish at sea

There are all kinds of things to hit in the Tasman - it can be a pretty treacherous place to sail..

Sunfish, whales, shipping containers.. there's a range of things to choose from out there that the folks on board, no matter how experienced, would have absolutely no control over.

A case of wrong place, wrong time.

-
"Honestly, I don't know why seamen persist in getting wrecked in some of the outlandish places they do, when they can do it in a nice place like Fiji." -- John Caldwell, "Desperate Voyage"
Classic30 is offline  
post #63 of 196 Old 07-05-2013
Over Hill Sailing Club
 
smurphny's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Adirondacks NY
Posts: 3,573
Thanks: 89
Thanked 107 Times in 104 Posts
Rep Power: 7
 
Re: 6 Americans, 1 Brit vanish at sea

Quote:
Originally Posted by JonEisberg View Post
Sorry, I'm not buying that one...

70' yachts getting run down by merchant ships are an extremely rare event... Here we have a boat that has already had its storm canvas destroyed, running off under bare poles before a storm, and you think it is still more plausible that they were sunk after colliding with a ship, rather than foundering due to storm-force conditions they had been battling?

anything's possible, of course, but I just don't see how the odds favor your scenario...
Except for a huge wave which could have rolled or pitchpoled them, any other scenario would have allowed time to activate the EPIRB. Capsizing would have to have been a complete surprise to them in that case because if the general sea conditions were that bad as to make them worry about capsizing, they certainly would have had PFDs on and EPIRB and survival gear at the ready. Something happened that did not allow for the few seconds it takes to grab and switch the EPIRB on. On a boat that size, they likely have had personal locator beacons as well. Even if rolled by a "rogue" wave, this boat would not have gone down immediately, allowing crew to escape from below. Something must have happened that sank her in seconds. No crew was found in PFDs which may suggest they were either not overly concerned about the sea condition or that they were all below and were struck by something, going down immediately. They could have come down on a floating object and split open as well. Coming down on a whale or container could conceivably split open a hull and sink it immediately before anyone could react or get out from below and don a PFD.

Alberg 35: With a philosophical flourish Cato throws himself upon his sword; I quietly take to the ship.
smurphny is offline  
post #64 of 196 Old 07-05-2013
Retired Naval Architect
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: ON S/V Strider
Posts: 142
Thanks: 1
Thanked 8 Times in 4 Posts
Rep Power: 4
 
Re: 6 Americans, 1 Brit vanish at sea

From: AAP Breaking News
July 05, 20138:32PM

THE search has been called off for the American schooner Nina which went missing with seven people on board in the Tasman Sea.


The 21m sailing vessel was travelling from Opua in the Bay of Islands to Newcastle in Australia on May 29 with six Americans and one British man aboard.
It struck winds up to 110km/h and 8m swells and has not been heard from since June 4.
Extensive searching over the past 11 days of an area more than eight times the size of New Zealand has failed to find any trace of the schooner.
No more searching is planned unless new information comes to light, Rescue Co-ordination Centre New Zealand operations manager John Seward said on Friday.
But radio broadcasts will continue to be made in New Zealand and Australia in the search for new information, he said.
Roger Long is offline  
post #65 of 196 Old 07-05-2013
Reward for lost Kraken!
 
hellosailor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 11,563
Thanks: 6
Thanked 137 Times in 134 Posts
Rep Power: 11
   
Re: 6 Americans, 1 Brit vanish at sea

I do so love the thread title, which I assume was taken directly from the Evening Nooze.

Seven crew missing! Good lord, this must be the Flying Dutchman, because no one mentions a vessel is missing.

Seven crew are not missing, a vessel with all souls on board is missing. There IS a big difference, because vessels have been found with no one onboard. "Vessel found at sea, seven crew missing with no trace!" would be bigger news.
hellosailor is offline  
post #66 of 196 Old 07-05-2013
Senior Member
 
CBinRI's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 919
Thanks: 1
Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts
Rep Power: 12
 
Re: 6 Americans, 1 Brit vanish at sea

Quote:
Originally Posted by hellosailor View Post
I do so love the thread title, which I assume was taken directly from the Evening Nooze.

Seven crew missing! Good lord, this must be the Flying Dutchman, because no one mentions a vessel is missing.

Seven crew are not missing, a vessel with all souls on board is missing. There IS a big difference, because vessels have been found with no one onboard. "Vessel found at sea, seven crew missing with no trace!" would be bigger news.
Not much to love in that thread title.
CBinRI is offline  
post #67 of 196 Old 07-05-2013
Blue Horizons
 
Harborless's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Jacksonville, Fl
Posts: 1,052
Thanks: 4
Thanked 19 Times in 16 Posts
Rep Power: 5
 
Re: 6 Americans, 1 Brit vanish at sea

I suppose the woodies here refuse to accept the MOST likely scenario of the boat failing and splitting up in seconds. Otherwise pfds or epirbs would have been activated.
MarkofSeaLife likes this.
Harborless is offline  
post #68 of 196 Old 07-06-2013
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 524
Thanks: 0
Thanked 17 Times in 16 Posts
Rep Power: 6
 
Re: 6 Americans, 1 Brit vanish at sea

Obviously, unless somebody survived and is found, we will never know. So, what in the hell is all the guesswork acheiving? Wood failing, containers, whales, Japanese Tsumani, whatever. People and a beautiful vessel seem to be lost. End of story unless you can prove something!
rugosa likes this.
tomandchris is offline  
The Following User Says Thank You to tomandchris For This Useful Post:
DJR351 (07-06-2013)
post #69 of 196 Old 07-06-2013
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 4,794
Thanks: 1
Thanked 201 Times in 166 Posts
Rep Power: 5
 
Re: 6 Americans, 1 Brit vanish at sea

Quote:
Originally Posted by smurphny View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by JonEisberg
Sorry, I'm not buying that one...

70' yachts getting run down by merchant ships are an extremely rare event... Here we have a boat that has already had its storm canvas destroyed, running off under bare poles before a storm, and you think it is still more plausible that they were sunk after colliding with a ship, rather than foundering due to storm-force conditions they had been battling?

anything's possible, of course, but I just don't see how the odds favor your scenario...

Except for a huge wave which could have rolled or pitchpoled them, any other scenario would have allowed time to activate the EPIRB. Capsizing would have to have been a complete surprise to them in that case because if the general sea conditions were that bad as to make them worry about capsizing, they certainly would have had PFDs on and EPIRB and survival gear at the ready. Something happened that did not allow for the few seconds it takes to grab and switch the EPIRB on.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Harborless View Post
I suppose the woodies here refuse to accept the MOST likely scenario of the boat failing and splitting up in seconds. Otherwise pfds or epirbs would have been activated.
These arguments are largely based upon the assumption that EPIRBs never fail to activate, or the system is somehow immune to failure...

I believe that's a mistaken assumption...

EPIRBs Ain?t Necessarily EPIRB-ing Maritime Accident Casebook

Last edited by JonEisberg; 07-06-2013 at 10:29 AM.
JonEisberg is offline  
post #70 of 196 Old 07-06-2013
Retired Naval Architect
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: ON S/V Strider
Posts: 142
Thanks: 1
Thanked 8 Times in 4 Posts
Rep Power: 4
 
Re: 6 Americans, 1 Brit vanish at sea

Quote:
Originally Posted by JonEisberg View Post
I believe that's a mistaken assumption...
Yes, and in four out of the five demonstrations of liferaft use by inflating just expired rafts for repack, the raft failed to inflate.

BTW, I'm getting kind of tired of the insistence by "Clueless" that we all recognize spontaneous disintegration of the old hull being the "most probable cause". All scenarios are possible and we won't know unless a survivor or definitive piece of debris shows up.

We can however, rank the probabilities even if roughly. That ranking will change with certain assumptions. If you assume that the EPIRB would work, as they usually do, things sudden and catastrophic move up the list.

Historically, speaking as one who has studied large sailing vessel losses fairly extensively over the years, structure failure due to normal wave action alone seldom happens suddenly enough in vessels of this size that a working EPIRB could not have been activated. It can't be ruled out but would be less likely in a vessel that has been maintained as well as it appears to have been than in many that have gone down slowly.

Even the infamous Raw Faith, built by a know nothing out of 8 foot pallet boards scabbed together with roofing tar, flooded and floated for hours gradually leaking until the crew were taken off in the chopper.

jephotog likes this.
Roger Long is offline  
Closed Thread

Quick Reply
Message:
Options

By choosing to post the reply above you agree to the rules you agreed to when joining Sailnet.
Click Here to view those rules.

Register Now



In order to be able to post messages on the SailNet Community forums, you must first register.
Please enter your desired user name, your email address and other required details in the form below.
Please note: After entering 3 characters a list of Usernames already in use will appear and the list will disappear once a valid Username is entered.


User Name:
Password
Please enter a password for your user account. Note that passwords are case-sensitive.

Password:


Confirm Password:
Email Address
Please enter a valid email address for yourself.

Email Address:
OR

Log-in









Human Verification

In order to verify that you are a human and not a spam bot, please enter the answer into the following box below based on the instructions contained in the graphic.




Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Show Printable Version
Email this Page Email this Page



Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Hi from a Brit abroad! britmick Introduce Yourself 1 10-21-2012 10:41 PM
Hi from Brit Newbie Sailorsteve Introduce Yourself 2 07-25-2012 11:46 AM
FELLOW AMERICANS SHIMSHON General Discussion (sailing related) 9 09-21-2001 04:08 PM

Posting Rules  
You may post new threads
You may post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On

 
For the best viewing experience please update your browser to Google Chrome