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  #491  
Old 12-17-2013
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Re: Rallies Gone Wrong

Quote:
Originally Posted by -OvO- View Post
90% of all statistics are made up on the spot.
That's only true 60% of the time.
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  #492  
Old 12-17-2013
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Re: Rallies Gone Wrong

Quote:
Originally Posted by smackdaddy View Post
Oh, well, on the percentage thing, I was just using Hal Roth's estimate from his book "Handling Storms at Sea". But I'm sure you know better than he based on your equivalent experience.

So 95% it is.

Sorry Hal - Jon has spoken.
Sorry, don't have access to Roth's book at the moment... What exactly is the "it" that is "perfectly safe 99% of the time", that he is referring to?

While I have nothing but the utmost respect for Hal and Margaret Roth, and will freely admit my own experience offshore fades to virtual nonexistence in comparison to his, if he is suggesting that sailing a small yacht in the western North Atlantic - particularly between Newport and Bermuda, in November - is perfectly safe 99% of the time, well... I would have to respectfully disagree, and side instead with Don Street's, or John Harries' take on the matter...

But, I'm gonna guess that's probably not really what he's asserting, particularly in regards to the sort of passage you cited, and that the crew of George Day's LIME-N' was waiting to undertake... :-)

I think we can both probably agree that it's fruitless to attempt to assign any precise percentages to something like this, no? And, that Roth likely tossed out his 99% figure simply for effect? Given the limitless variables that might apply relative to the waters being sailed, in various types of boats, differing levels of experience of crews, variations in seasonal weather patterns from one year to the next, and so on, ad infinitum?

Last edited by JonEisberg; 12-17-2013 at 04:55 PM.
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  #493  
Old 12-17-2013
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Re: Rallies Gone Wrong

Quote:
Originally Posted by JonEisberg View Post
Sorry, don't have access to Roth's book at the moment... What exactly is the "it" that is "perfectly safe 99% of the time", that he is referring to?

While I have nothing but the utmost respect for Hal and Margaret Roth, and will freely admit my own experience offshore fades to virtual nonexistence in comparison to his, if he is suggesting that sailing a small yacht in the western North Atlantic - particularly between Newport and Bermuda, in November - is perfectly safe 99% of the time, well... I would have to respectfully disagree, and side instead with Don Street's, or John Harries' take on the matter...

But, I'm gonna guess that's probably not really what he's asserting, particularly in regards to the sort of passage you cited, and that the crew of George Day's LIME-N' was waiting to undertake... :-)

I think we can both probably agree that it's fruitless to attempt to assign any precise percentages to something like this, no? And, that Roth likely tossed out his 99% figure simply for effect? Given the limitless variables that might apply relative to various types of boats, differing levels of experience of crews, variations in seasonal weather patterns from one year to the next, and so on, ad infinitum?
You hit it on the head with the bolded part. Your take on what I was saying about the 99%/1% ratio and how it relates here was as wrong as your notion that my saying the Knowles relying on the Weather Dude's okay to leave on their trip (the same thing you and Ausp were making fun of newbs for doing) brought forth the "obvious" conclusion that "one can never, EVER know for sure whether it's safe to leave the dock, or not."

I don't really know how you come up with these crazy comparisons and extreme conclusions, I just like watching them spin out all over the place. That's all.

To be very clear, Roth was talking about the overall chance one has of actually running into a very serious storm while out cruising. In his 40 years, 200+K miles, 3 roundings of Cape Horn etc. there were a very small handful of times the conditions rose above F8 (Gale). This worked out to maybe 1% or less of his cruising time spent in "a strong gale or a storm".

So the point is if you're at all smart and watch what you're doing, your chances of avoiding a boat-breaking storm are very, very good. As I said, I like those odds.

On the other hand, if you rely on others to do the thinking for you, don't rely on established standards of safety and preparedness, or misjudge conditions because of herd mentality...that ratio may drop to your 95%...for newbs and experienced sailors alike.

Even so, your odds are still pretty good to leave the dock. Just be careful where you're going - and have your boat prepared...maybe even to some degree of ISAF standards.
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Last edited by smackdaddy; 12-17-2013 at 05:14 PM.
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  #494  
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Re: Rallies Gone Wrong

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Originally Posted by smackdaddy View Post

I don't really know how you come up with these crazy comparisons and extreme conclusions, I just like watching them spin out all over the place.
OK, whatever...

However, let the record show that in this particular instance, it was you - in post #479 - who introduced the rather "crazy comparison" between my simple mention of those seeking permission from Chris Parker to undertake a short Bahamian daysail, and your example of the Knowles' waiting for a window to depart for Bermuda... :-)

Quote:
Originally Posted by smackdaddy View Post
To be very clear, Roth was talking about the overall chance one has of actually running into a very serious storm while out cruising. In his 40 years, 200+K miles, 3 roundings of Cape Horn etc. there were a very small handful of times the conditions rose above F8 (Gale). This worked out to maybe 1% or less of his cruising time spent in "a strong gale or a storm".

So the point is if you're at all smart and watch what you're doing, your chances of avoiding a boat-breaking storm are very, very good. As I said, I like those odds.
Yeah, that's pretty much what I figured... and, I don't disagree with your conclusion, at all...

However, at the risk of exposing myself as the true wimp sailor that I am, this is where we apparently disagree...

I most certainly do not necessarily consider anything short of F8 conditions as being, by definition, "perfectly safe"... :-)
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  #495  
Old 12-17-2013
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Re: Rallies Gone Wrong

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Originally Posted by JonEisberg View Post
Sorry, don't have access to Roth's book at the moment... What exactly is the "it" that is "perfectly safe 99% of the time", that he is referring to?
If you can get the citation from the person who posted the challenge I will call Margaret and ask her. Hal unfortunately is now a silent partner.
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  #496  
Old 12-17-2013
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Re: Rallies Gone Wrong

Quote:
Originally Posted by JonEisberg View Post
OK, whatever...

However, let the record show that in this particular instance, it was you - in post #479 - who introduced the rather "crazy comparison" between my simple mention of those seeking permission from Chris Parker to undertake a short Bahamian daysail, and your example of the Knowles' waiting for a window to depart for Bermuda... :-)
If you are willing to write the above sentence as follows:

"My simple mention of those seeking permission from Chris Parker to undertake a short Bahamian daysail, and your example of the Knowles' seeking permission from Chris Parker to depart for Bermuda..."

-OR-

"My simple mention of waiting for a window to undertake a short Bahamian daysail, and your example of the Knowles' waiting for a window to depart for Bermuda..."

Then I think we're on the same page. If not, then my question of distinction still stands.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JonEisberg View Post
I most certainly do not necessarily consider anything short of F8 conditions as being, by definition, "perfectly safe"... :-)
Oh, I don't either by any means. Goofballs and drunks die in F0 conditions all the time! But if one is halfway sober, intelligent, and prepared (maybe using the ISAF regs for example, and/or with Hal Roth's techniques and equipment recommendations, etc.), one's odds are very, very good that he won't die if he leaves the dock. That was Hal's point. I just believe him...that's all.
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Last edited by smackdaddy; 12-17-2013 at 07:20 PM.
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  #497  
Old 12-17-2013
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Re: Rallies Gone Wrong

I would guess that a weather router adds value to the weather equation, but that value is proportional to the routers expertise. With the internet, today we can look at raw data from a multitude of data points, we can read directly NOAA reports, and we can listen to the many weather guessers, but how do you develop the ability to integrate all this data into an accurate forecast?
The time domain is also a major factor in usefulness of weather prediction. So, if you want to leave port for a destination ten or so days away, it really becomes a big time problem for those dependent upon fair weather, say less than force six or seven. Once committed to a trip like SDR one will have to deal with the weather one gets, and that is where captain, crew and equipment makes the difference.


I think you guys have been beating each other over the head saying this very thing all the time talking past each other. ISAF regulations or your own set of standards for equipment developed through research an experience are just fine, but offer no guarantee that nothing will fail. Your experience is always a value addition to the equation, but is no guarantee you will not make a mistake, use poor judgement or find yourself in danger.
I think that without final incident reports we know not who, what, when, how and why those boats got into trouble. What was the mix of weather, equipment or competence for each incident? It would be nice if the SDR people could (would) get the final incident reports, conduct some interviews and publish a lessons learned on their website.
One issue the whole Atlantic cruising establishment needs to address is the November 1st departure issue. That seems a pretty straight forward the source of weather issues and clouds the question of when to leave.
Oh well, just trying to extend this discussion to 500 posts.
John
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  #498  
Old 12-17-2013
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Re: Rallies Gone Wrong

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Originally Posted by ccriders View Post
I think you guys have been beating each other over the head saying this very thing all the time talking past each other.
You said it brother. But hey, what else is there to do? It's the Christmas season, so we have to beat on each other's heads! At least I'm using a tightly rolled ISAF manual...with a roll of quarters in the middle.
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Re: Rallies Gone Wrong

Oh look, 499.
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Re: Rallies Gone Wrong

Now that we have 500, let's talk about something else.

Just kidding - I'm with you CC. I look forward to an incident report and summation of their board recommendations moving forward. I think that will tell us a lot.
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Last edited by smackdaddy; 12-17-2013 at 10:40 PM.
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