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  • 1 Post By smurphny
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Storm Track/Intensity Prediction Models

This is an interesting article about the accuracy of storm prediction models from Jeff Masters of Weather Underground: Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog : Which Hurricane Model Should You Trust? | Weather Underground
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Re: Storm Track/Intensity Prediction Models

Interesting article.

FWIW we have been relying on Passage Weather, which utilizes both the GFS and NAM models, since 2008 for picking our weather windows and timing and have found predictions for the Florida Peninsula and the Bahamas quite accurate out to 5 days which is more than enough for most of our passages. The included Gulf Stream predictions for our area are also very reliable/useful.
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Re: Storm Track/Intensity Prediction Models

I've lived in Florida and on the Alabama and Mississippi gulf coast the greatest part of my life. I went through Katrina and so many other hurricanes I can't remember all of their names. If there is one thing we have learned, it is that there is no hurricane prediction model that is reliable enough to make life altering decisions on.

Our personal program is that once a hurricane enters the Gulf of Mexico, we start preparing, no matter where the models say it will go. We have learned to do this from experience. We have seen all of the models and predictions be wrong too many times.
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Re: Storm Track/Intensity Prediction Models

After reading through this article, it seems that the forecasts have certainly improved but, as the graphs indicate, are still only partially reliable. Storms are still not 100% predictable, even in the shorter time periods. I guess the best we can do is to look at as many sources as possible and make our own judgements as to what actions to take. My primary tool is the NOAA weatherfax system, combined with as many other opinions as possible.
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