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First potential Tropical Storm...

5K views 30 replies 14 participants last post by  midwesterner 
#1 ·
#7 ·
I just received this in an email this morning-

Good Morning,

The tropics. Remember them? Weak remnants of a cold front tangle with an upper level trough (PVA says the QG Omega equation) producing a gaggleplex of convection over the Bahamas south through the Windward Passage. This mess will slowly track northwest ( yes, towards us…) over the long weekend. Numerical guidance remains nebulous with timing and track but generally shows some tempered development perhaps into a weak sub-tropical or tropical system. The latest model runs are showing this system affecting the beach as early as Saturday afternoon or as late as Monday afternoon anywhere from Jacksonville FL to Wilmington, NC. Models always show this degree spastic skill with these types of early season systems. Current environmental conditions, particularly sea water temperatures, are not conducive for rapid or deep development.

The National Hurricane Center has given this undesignated area of quasi-interest a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days.

H-word storm you ask plaintively? Nope.

Hurricane Water Vapor GOES East

National Hurricane Center 5-day Outlook:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png

Mark Malsick
SC State Climate Office
SC Department of Natural Resources
1000 Assembly Street, Columbia SC 29001
 
#9 ·
aaawwww so you are gonna mebbe have a possible cute little sub tropical system. how cute.
practice with it so you arent chikkin little with each and every formation growing this la nina year.
learn how to prep for fun summer storms, which you see so very few of in a season.
learn how to read weather maps so you donot have to depend on someone elses words defining your weahter world..
read the maps and see what you have around you in sky and sea. storms of consquence are beautiful. the mor e gorgeous, the deadlier. is impressive how nature does this.
it is also fun to watch em grow and develop and how they track.
there is nothing mysterious about these cyclonic events. the more you know , the less abject fear you will hold. as you learn how and where they form and what makes em grow in size and intensity, you will also learn how to protect your self, family and possessions during them.
in 3 years in cane growth belt , pacific ocean, i learned much about these lovelies.
be safe and watch how it goes. you wont die
yet.
nor will any of these events so early in season become a cane until later in season when conditions favor growth of tropical storms.
 
#10 ·
LOL... I was in the eye of several hurricanes in Florida (West Palm Beach and FT. Pierce back in the 80's... Exciting stuff and eerie say the least.... interesting to see the change in winds, rain pattern, strange phenomena happening all around you... We stayed in Wilmington Island in Georgia last time a hurricane threatened our small island home... prepared the Hunter for the eventual storm surge, etc... but riding it out was fine even though most of the island was evacuated.

Savannah for the most part has never had a deadly hurricane in many decades so we're very lucky, the Gulfstream seems to take the path up towards northern South Carolina and into North Carolina where they eventually make landfall... Thx for lookin' out for us!
 
#15 ·
The trick is to be far from my boat. Last year, TS Bill hit 30 miles north of us in Rockport, Tx. Where am I now? Brunswick, Georgia.

This one shouldn't even get a name. We've been lucky so far after almost 4 years living aboard and cruising (knock wood). It's not even hurricane season yet, but Anna was the first part of May last year, so maybe a new trend in weather? Hoping for a quiet 5 or 6 months ahead, as we make our way to the Chesapeake. Good luck to Zee on that west coast this year!

Ralph
 
#21 ·
What is not often appreciated enough is how the cyclonic storm cycle has changed for east coast sailors. Over recent years their occurance is more scattered on the calendar. The September peak is less evident. Their occurance during the two passage seasons is more likely. In past you never worried much about them for the Father's Day ocean races to Bermuda. Now it's a real concern. Nor for the November 1500 or SDR.
Land falls have shifted as well. High category landfalls north of the cheasepeake were 50-100y events. Even the usual frowns from no wind during late June and August throughout New England is a thing of the past. Up here it's been like someone flicked a switch. Long sleeve shirts and vests last week. Then shorts and Ts with sweat poring down now. Sure if you don't like New England weather wait a minute but the mix of the seasons is much more apparent and random.
Cannot believe any sailor doesn't appreciate the reality of climate change.
 
#25 · (Edited)
I'm in Georgia, south of TD 8. TD 9 is building, and models show it coming over my head on Thursday. Whether it becomes a hurricane or not is still unclear, but I won't count out anything in the warm Gulf waters. At least I'm not on the west coast of Florida, but still expect strong thunderstorms, winds, and rain.

Good luck everyone.....and don't look now but another wave coming off the Africa coast.

Good info on these:
http://www.spaghettimodels.com/
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Ralph
 
#24 · (Edited)
nothing has changed except the cycling of weather we had 2 el ninos followed now by la nina. as th e el nino last year was super el nino and very strong current, this la nina is correspondingly strong.
as you easterners donot receive the prodicrs of mother natures wrath on a freuent basis, you are scared of em. rightfully so. however all is same as has been for millenia.

they know what is coming. i make sure, as do others. i let the news out as soon as i see it-- and repost frequent updates. my friends repost as well. i think w e have most of the awake sailors covered. the comatose ones donot care anyway, so why force it down their throats. there is a helluva cruiser network out here. covers entire planet.
 
#26 · (Edited)
Zeehag:

Nothing has changed? Weather changes every minute. In the past few years lots of experienced boat owners lost boats in Hurricanes Katrina, Irene, Igor, Sandy and others.

There is no need for weather snobbery. The east coast mariners are very experienced with weather. Ever hear of Nor'Easters, or The Perfect Storm? I'm not sure what you are referring to when you say, "the prodicrs of mother nature[']s wrath" but I am a Midwesterner and we are also no strangers to weather. Below is a photo of some of the weather we get where I live. You can't sail out of the path of weather like this. I knew a few of the people who died in this bit of weather in Joplin Missouri.


I just hope everyone and their boats are safe this season.
Zeehag, If you've got this weather thing all mastered, then good for you.


 
#28 ·
I'm always thinking about people who are likely to be in the path of tough weather. I had been working on a plan, that if I had been able to implement it, would have me storing a boat for the winter at New Bern NC. I also would not have been able to be near it until around December.

It has me thinking about people who do have boats in the storm affected areas and hoping that no friends have any damage this season. So I appreciate news and updates from the storm affected areas.

I have a list of webcams in coastal areas that I check out in bad weather to be able to see what's going on.
 
#30 ·
It has me thinking about people who do have boats in the storm affected areas and hoping that no friends have any damage this season. So I appreciate news and updates from the storm affected areas.
I've haven't made it to NC yet, but plan to in the future. FYI, a pretty safe place to leave a boat during hurricane season is Brunswick Landing Marina. Brunswick Landing Marina: A liveaboard's paradise in Georgia

There are quite a number of cruisers staying on their boats here, waiting for November to head out once again. Plenty of others choose to leave their boats here for the season. Most of those boats left by the owners are stripped of sails and canvas, and have plenty of extra lines on. The ones to watch are the boats owned by locals that seem clueless. I'll put extra lines on the trawler next to me if they don't show up to take care of the boat.

Surely there are others with boats on sailnet that are concerned with these current tropical storms?

Ralph
 
#29 ·
Interestingly, it's been long enough without a major storm in the Windwards that all the St Lucia locals we've talked to in the last 10 days or so weren't even aware that there were some potential storms brewing.
Now that we have weather available to us online 24/7, I think it's strange that few seem to be paying attention. Grenada's relatively recent storm Ivan still has everybody freaked out there, even though it was one of the two per century that regularly hit Grenada.
The last few years of el Niño have certainly been a wonderful relief, but the time has come for each of us, be we in the islands or on a coast of a larger land mass, to pay attention once again. 99L is a great example of a system that has even the professionals baffled and that relying on someone else's forecast may cost you dearly.
 
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