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post #18 of Old 07-18-2016
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Re: Weather or not

Originally Posted by Zarathu View Post
There are plenty of indications that the next 100 years are going to be a Dalton or even a Maunder minimum. Temperatures in Maine are going to turn back into the 1950's, when people talked about the cold winters. Right now both the Atlantic and pacific duo-oscillations have turned cold together, which is very unusual. The warmth of the El Nino that covered the broader trends is going to look wonderful soon.
I would not place much emphasis on sunspots.

The sun's activity is in free fall, according to a leading space physicist. But don't expect a little ice age. "Solar activity is declining very fast at the moment," Mike Lockwood, professor of space environmental physics at Reading University, UK, told New Scientist. "We estimate faster than at any time in the last 9300 years."

Lockwood and his colleagues are reassessing the chances of this decline continuing over decades to become the first "grand solar minimum" for four centuries. During a grand minimum the normal 11-year solar cycle is suppressed and the sun has virtually no sunspots for several decades. This summer should have seen a peak in the number of sunspots, but it didn't happen.

But Lockwood says we should not expect a new grand minimum to bring on a new little ice age.Human-induced global warming, he says, is already a more important force in global temperatures than even major solar cycles. "

Solar activity varies about 0.1%; that has little effect.

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