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post #11 of 35 Old 07-14-2016
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Re: Weather or not

this is a LA NINA year, and the cold current is stronger in appearance than usual. you can see it nicely in wunderground´s tropical weather anomalies page.
beautiful changes.
watch how the formations climb up the sw coast of mexico--more normal than last year with the hellacious strength the storms become when forming in in hot water. watch the patterning of sea surface temps and how those affect your weather. they do. the lil rowdy current s off south america affect the weather for the entire planet. our ocean here is a lot cooler than last year, which was a super el nino, which followed a ¨normal¨ el nino.
ok. if you donot believe in el nino and la nina, it is time to open your eyes, as it is a factual cycling of the weather--it is a pattern that has been ongoing for millenia.
this is our third in sequence not normal year of weather. you guys donot remember normal. there is no normal, merely not el nino and not la nina. that makes 2 years not in those cycles.
maybe.
as we are all SUPPOSED to be intelligent sailors, i donot understand how many can be so weather ignorant.
weather is your life on the sea. weather and more weather. (ask jeff hartjoy. he knows from weather.)
or just sail gom yer round... there is a lot of weather there.. is speed learning course... ha ha ha
i was taught when i first began to find sailing fun(1955), that weather is a part of sailing and that i best be able to know what is coming at me. experienced my first line squall before age 8. (cooooool) . we were taught to read seas and skies and act appropriately before **** happened. this was back in the good old days when prevention was key and captain went down with ship.
unlike today wherein all is disposable.
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post #12 of 35 Old 07-14-2016
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Re: Weather or not

While it seemed to be a late spring, the Mackerel appear to be early. Ospreys have been passing overhead with large ones in their talons, for a couple weeks. And fishermen line the public docks to harvest them. I watched a large school going up the river in the harbor. The above behavior and the large schools near the surface, is more a late August thing in my experience.

Water is still predictably cold outside the harbor. The lobstermen aren't complaining about a too early harvest(that kills them when warm water brings them into shore early - there's no market demand then)

Tom Young sailing a 1961 38' Alden Challenger, CHRISTMAS out of
Rockport, Maine.
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post #13 of 35 Old 07-14-2016 Thread Starter
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Re: Weather or not

Z- got that. Have done my Lee Chesneau classes and read my weather for Mariners books. Still, even accounting for La Nińa/el Nino effects seems an unusual year. Now sitting in harbor doing maintenance. Warm rain, wind,chop like you'd see down by you. Not New England.

s/v Hippocampus
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Last edited by outbound; 07-14-2016 at 12:59 PM.
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post #14 of 35 Old 07-14-2016
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Re: Weather or not

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Originally Posted by RichH View Post
Sunspot activity is currently quite low (at a minimum of the normal ~11 year cycle), and has been exceptionally low during the entire current 'solar cycle' since about 2008, and earlier. This typically leads to average cooler than normal weather.

SWS - Solar Conditions - Monthly Sunspot Numbers ... see chart.
There are plenty of indications that the next 100 years are going to be a Dalton or even a Maunder minimum. Temperatures in Maine are going to turn back into the 1950's, when people talked about the cold winters. Right now both the Atlantic and pacific duo-oscillations have turned cold together, which is very unusual. The warmth of the El Nino that covered the broader trends is going to look wonderful soon.

I'm not sure what this means for sailing in the Down East and the Maritimes.
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Last edited by Zarathu; 07-14-2016 at 01:08 PM.
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post #15 of 35 Old 07-15-2016
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Re: Weather or not

we have little chop unless there is a tropical event-- our ocean is smooth long rollers unless neptune has a case of the ass.
caribbean and gom are somewhat choppy, but that only due to frequency of swells. ours are normally 15-21 seconds at .5-1.5 meters. not too noticeable. over 2 meters with closer action is a lil busy.



as a mini ice age was spozed to occur before the increasing ocean levels, we are still on our way to coolerville.
i still think baaahstaahhn will be new north pole. should be about the time to change axis of planet, or are we overdue for that.. who is to blame for that one, i wonder...
ha ha ha ha \ lets have a global warming tax so we can keep the climate from changing. like money will make that happen.
i watched one usa candidate spew about climate change and how we have to stop it.. i want to know how is that going to be effected. are we stronger than nature?
personally, i have down throws and a nice warm down jacket in case of dire need and no more warm spots on planet. and uggs ordered. and a walking furball, nice n cozy huge n warm. he eats fish, so all is well.
i am still waiting the rising of the seas so i can sail over the high rises in fort lauderdale. doubt the 6 inches or so of increases we are expecting by 2025 will allow for that, tho.
folks have been calling for cleaning up the beach, now they ***** about the rising seas which will effect the request.. go figger--humans are fickle and short memoried.

our only constant is change--sit back and enjoy it.
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post #16 of 35 Old 07-15-2016
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Re: Weather or not

It's taken much longer to warm up this year. Last weekend was downright cold. Warm now, but Labor Day is 6 weeks away and that's usually the off switch for summer heat.


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post #17 of 35 Old 07-15-2016
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Re: Weather or not

In the 9 years I've been sailing in the Northeast I haven't seen a "normal" here, so far as I can tell this year has been pretty much normal.
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post #18 of 35 Old 07-18-2016
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Re: Weather or not

Quote:
Originally Posted by Zarathu View Post
There are plenty of indications that the next 100 years are going to be a Dalton or even a Maunder minimum. Temperatures in Maine are going to turn back into the 1950's, when people talked about the cold winters. Right now both the Atlantic and pacific duo-oscillations have turned cold together, which is very unusual. The warmth of the El Nino that covered the broader trends is going to look wonderful soon.
I would not place much emphasis on sunspots.

The sun's activity is in free fall, according to a leading space physicist. But don't expect a little ice age. "Solar activity is declining very fast at the moment," Mike Lockwood, professor of space environmental physics at Reading University, UK, told New Scientist. "We estimate faster than at any time in the last 9300 years."

Lockwood and his colleagues are reassessing the chances of this decline continuing over decades to become the first "grand solar minimum" for four centuries. During a grand minimum the normal 11-year solar cycle is suppressed and the sun has virtually no sunspots for several decades. This summer should have seen a peak in the number of sunspots, but it didn't happen.

But Lockwood says we should not expect a new grand minimum to bring on a new little ice age.Human-induced global warming, he says, is already a more important force in global temperatures than even major solar cycles. "

Solar activity varies about 0.1%; that has little effect.
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post #19 of 35 Old 07-18-2016
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Re: Weather or not

SFBay seems to have normal Summer winds, near zero till the marine layer burns off between 10 and 12 and then blowing 25 through the slot by Alcatraz in the afternoons.

PredictWind Gribs at 1km are pretty well on for time and speed in the bay, offshore there are people are *****ing that the NOAA GFS as been predicting 15 and they are getting 25-30 on the SHTP and Pacific Cup. The High seemed to setup more this past week than the previous.
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post #20 of 35 Old 07-18-2016 Thread Starter
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NE is still getting too much or too little. Over the last 35 years of sailing this region continues to seem an unusual year.
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