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post #41 of 114 Old 06-23-2018
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Re: EU duties that may affect us sailors personally

Trump ainít no chess player. Checkers, at best, but more likely Russian roulette.
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post #42 of 114 Old 06-23-2018
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Re: EU duties that may affect us sailors personally

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Originally Posted by MikeOReilly View Post
Not pundits, serious economist. Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke, the list is endless:



Itís certainly possible Trump is right and the rest of the world is wrong, but if I were a bettin' man, Iíd not take those odds.



The USA is, by far, the biggest player on the playground. I think itís quite simple; Trump is used to bullying his way to victory, and he is going to use the USAís outsized advantage to try and force the rest of the world to kowtow to his demands. This is why he doesnít like multilateral trade deals like NAFTA or the TPP. This just brings more countervailing power to the table. He wants to dominate, not negotiate. In his own words, he wants USA First trade, which is clearly not fair trade. This is why he favours bilateral agreements. There is no single country that can stand up to the USA.

He can possibly succeed ó at least for a short while. But people will not bend easily. And it will diminish us all.

Trump operates on the idea that people, or countries, will accept some benefits from trade, even though the lions share will go to the USA. This is a flawed reading of human psychology. It is well known that people, when faced with obvious unfairness, will accept damage to their own situation as long as it hurts the one being unfair. This is why countries and regions with some ability to push back ARE pushing back ó even though it harms them (us) as much or more than it will hurt the USA.

In the medium to longer term this will force is a reshaping of the global power dynamic. The USA will proceed with its Pax Americana agenda, and the rest of the world that is strong enough to resist will coalesce into some sort of counter force. I donít think this is a positive development for the globe.
Surprisingly, you will notice we agree on almost everything except I like Trump and you don't.

That's modern politics. 40, 50 years ago we liked are own guy and respected the other guy.
But now, since Nixon(?) we only like our guy and hate everyone else. Nixon I think because of Vietnam moritoriums and Watergate... Those 2 changed the 'world' for the USA. Other countries followed.

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Re: EU duties that may affect us sailors personally

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Originally Posted by MarkofSeaLife View Post
Surprisingly, you will notice we agree on almost everything except I like Trump and you don't.

That's modern politics. 40, 50 years ago we liked are own guy and respected the other guy.
But now, since Nixon(?) we only like our guy and hate everyone else. Nixon I think because of Vietnam moritoriums and Watergate... Those 2 changed the 'world' for the USA. Other countries followed.

Mark
I don’t think it was Nixon. There was continuing bipartisanship under Ford, Carter, Reagan and Bush41. I think the tribalism started with Gingrich in early ‘90s. The Senate continued to be collegial, but that eroded fast when Teddy Kennedy died. @chef2sail has interesting behind-the-scenes insights on Teddy’s bipartisan influence, as well as other major players in present day government.
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post #44 of 114 Old 06-23-2018
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Re: EU duties that may affect us sailors personally

They say insanity is doing the sane thing and expecting a different result. Can anyone here name an example of a trade war which had a successful result? Or a successful outcome from trickle down economics or long term success for a totally managed economy be it fascist, totalitarian or communist.
The second largest economy clearly isn’t playing fair but as noted in the earlier post we have multiple ways other than a trade war to respond. We won the Cold War by just outspending Russia not by sending off icbms. We will win this economic battle by statecraft and outmaneuvering our opponents via multiple available avenues not this clumsy approach.
There are multiple swords hanging over our heads-trade imbalance, national debt, continued imbalance between revenue and expenditure, lack of increase in productivity. Both parties have wimped to their disgrace. Some of the mavericks like Paul have raised these issues but the fix will cause pain and unlikely hamper reelection so the can keeps being kicked. Agree it’s laudable that trade is being addressed abet in the wrong fashion. However current trade isn’t as harmful as the other unaddressed issues.
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post #45 of 114 Old 06-23-2018
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Re: EU duties that may affect us sailors personally

A number of thoughts:
A tariff is a tax upon the citizens of the nation imposing it. It does nothing to anyone else except make their products more expensive in the country that introduces the tariff. Those of you who are happy with the tariffs their own country puts on other countries products must like paying higher prices or like to be taxed. If the latter is true then you could just buy more lottery tickets to satisfy your need and leave me out of it.

China can produce goods at less expense than any other country in the world because they have no pollution regulation, no minimum wage or defined benefit regulation, and they have set forth policies to force people from their agricultural heritage into cities to work in what you progressives would have called sweatshops 20 years ago. You cannot compete in an open market with those rules unless you are so selfish that you don't care that someone is being forced to produce your $100 tennis shoes for $.25. All collectivism is slavery.

I refuse to participate in the shell game of politics today. Both sides are distracting the attention of their party members on meaningless gestures to enable them to continue to destroy the middle class, promote the power of the un-elected bureaucracy, and make everyone Pavlov's Dogs in their claims of crisis. Trump is not a part of that machine, which is why they must take him down. Trump is not a genius but he is fast becoming a champion of the middle class common American citizen.

Hate away!
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post #46 of 114 Old 06-23-2018
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Re: EU duties that may affect us sailors personally

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Taking a unilateral wrecking ball to international trade structures, while barely pretending to be trying to renegotiate them instead, hardly qualifies as 'resetting' IMHO. I personally don't foresee any good ending for what Trump is doing.

And he's definitely misusing and abusing Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, which allows the president to adjust imports without a vote by Congress should the Department of Commerce find evidence of a national-security threat from foreign shipments. Apparently Wilbur Ross, the pet poodle Trump installed as his Secretary of Commerce, is willing to certify that damnnear any and all imports somehow qualify as a threat to national security...
This would be the same Wilbur Ross who's connected to Putin's inner circle, would it?
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post #47 of 114 Old 06-24-2018
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Re: EU duties that may affect us sailors personally

I don't think the tariffs will have a great affect to the cost of owning a sailboat. From what I can tell very few Sailnetters are buying new boats at the boat shows, So tariffs on the boating industry won't affect many onboard here. Unless you are doing a major refit, I would guess the cost of parts as far as boat owning expense is 30% or less. If 50% of this is foreign sourced from a taxed nation. Boating equipment is taxed at 25%. The increase in the costs of boating is 3.75% as a result of this trade war.

I am not sure where we stood before the trade wars but the U.S. has fought and been accused of protectionism. Boeing and the US has accused Europe of subsidizing Airbus
Boeing: Facts About Subsidies to Airbus
While we have subsidized industries to keep US farmers rich.
https://www.economist.com/united-sta...king-taxpayers
Lets not forget the tax breaks Carrier got to keep jobs in the U.S.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKBN1F02TL


I think the true economic stressors to boat ownership might be on the world economy as a whole, not just the goods being taxed. This trade war could lead to a global downturn. Trump looks at all transactions as a Zero Sum Game: The US economy can win only if our trade partners loose. I think he was shocked that the tariffs are being retaliated against, and he may continue to escalate the trade war. Since this is not a global trade war it is 'the US vs it's trading partners', eventually the trading partners will find it's easier and cheaper to get their goods from other countries.

One thing for certain it will be hard to keep up your sailboat if you are a hog farmer.

Trade wars costing hog farmers $2.2 billion so far | National Hog Farmer

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Re: EU duties that may affect us sailors personally

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Seems pretty complete. Why the gherkins?
Gherkins explained.

I turns out the list of items chosen for tariffs were specifically picked out to target Trump's allies in Congress. Paul Ryan's district is a huge source for Gherkins.

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post #49 of 114 Old 06-24-2018
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Re: EU duties that may affect us sailors personally

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I don't think the tariffs will have a great affect to the cost of owning a sailboat. Ö
Probably true, at least in the short run. It will start to bite for all westerners around the world eventually. I see Canada is imposing a 10% duty on American made boats and motors. Iím sure Canada isnít overall a huge market for American boats, but itís not insignificant either, and probably quite important for some US companies or regions.

Quote:
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I think the true economic stressors to boat ownership might be on the world economy as a whole, not just the goods being taxed. This trade war could lead to a global downturn. Trump looks at all transactions as a Zero Sum Game: The US economy can win only if our trade partners loose. I think he was shocked that the tariffs are being retaliated against, and he may continue to escalate the trade war. Since this is not a global trade war it is 'the US vs it's trading partners', eventually the trading partners will find it's easier and cheaper to get their goods from other countries.
This is exactly right. Trump doesnít understand trade, or if he does, he doesnít understand global free market capitalism, which is the system championed by, and for the benefit of, the USA and its allies beginning in the early 20th century (and perhaps earlier). His actions can only lead to more economic pain, especially for the middle class.

Like I said earlier, Trump also appears to be making a basic mistake with regard to how people react when bullied. Some fold, but those who can fight back, do so, even when it negatively affects them. Study after study shows this to be true about human nature.

Trump is clearly a narcissistic bully whoís previous life success have come by being the biggest dog in the fight. His history abusing the ďlittle guysĒ is well documented. So itís no wonder he is taking the same approach to international relations; after all, the USA is the biggest dog in the ring.

Itís also interesting how he surrounds himself with toadies. Anyone who may dare to question him, or even suggest alternative approaches, gets shown the door. Heís now got what he wants: a room full of ďyes men (and women).Ē

I still predict people will begin to wake up to this con man fairly soon. The Republicans will find their collective backbone when most of them see heís dragging their ship down with at the polls in November. At least this is my hope.

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post #50 of 114 Old 06-24-2018
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Re: EU duties that may affect us sailors personally

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Originally Posted by Rocky Mountain Breeze View Post
A number of thoughts:
A tariff is a tax upon the citizens of the nation imposing it. It does nothing to anyone else except make their products more expensive in the country that introduces the tariff...

Trump is not a genius but he is fast becoming a champion of the middle class common American citizen.

Hate away!
The dissonance between your opening and closing statements is jarring. How do Trump's capricious and arbitrary tariffs, which will wind up raising prices almost across the board for 'middle class common American citizens,' make him their champion?

The same way that signing a huge tax cut for the wealthy and big businesses, then wanting to pay for it by shredding Social Security, Medicare and any other part of the safety net he can get his hands on, makes him the champion of the middle class?

And the same way that sabotaging Obamacare at every turn, thereby shoving medical care back onto the same unsustainable path of rising costs it was on before, makes him a middle class champion?

Methinks you have odd notions concerning what champions are supposed to do...
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Last edited by troy2000; 06-24-2018 at 08:33 AM.
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