Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: NE & Windwards
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Weather - cyclonic storm risk
Had this forwarded to me. Wonder what people follow to be apprised of cyclonic storm risks. Personally depend on my weather router, noaa and 500mb/girbs from passage weather.
Central & Eastern Atlantic Tropical Development Possible Next Week: A very strong upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation, which is now moving across the eastern Pacific, is expected to move across the Atlantic and then Africa beginning late this week and continuing through next week. This feature may be a trigger of sorts that leads to not only a train of well developed tropical waves pushing off of the coast of Africa by next week, but also leads to a increasing chance for tropical development across the eastern and central Atlantic beginning next week.
While the model guidance are not showing outright tropical development next week or the following week, the consensus of the model guidance do show at least 2 to 3 tropical disturbances that may really need to be monitored for development. It should be noted that the model guidance have “missed” the development of eastern and central Atlantic tropical systems over the last couple of years and really didn’t forecast them until they actually formed.
Turning to the ensemble guidance, the GFS ensemble and to a certain extent the European ensemble guidance do show the eastern Atlantic waking up a little starting next week and continuing into the following week.
Given the strength of the upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation pushing into the Atlantic from the Pacific, it looks to me that we are going to have to really watch the area of the Atlantic from the Lesser Antilles to the coast of Africa for potential tropical development starting next week. It should be noted though that there is a large amount of dry air across the central and eastern Atlantic and if this dry air persists, this could squash any tropical disturbances from development.
So, possible eastern and central Atlantic tropical development is something to keep an eye on for next week and the following week & it is something that I will keep you all updated on.