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Weather - cyclonic storm risk

Had this forwarded to me. Wonder what people follow to be apprised of cyclonic storm risks. Personally depend on my weather router, noaa and 500mb/girbs from passage weather.

Central & Eastern Atlantic Tropical Development Possible Next Week: A very strong upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation, which is now moving across the eastern Pacific, is expected to move across the Atlantic and then Africa beginning late this week and continuing through next week. This feature may be a trigger of sorts that leads to not only a train of well developed tropical waves pushing off of the coast of Africa by next week, but also leads to a increasing chance for tropical development across the eastern and central Atlantic beginning next week.

While the model guidance are not showing outright tropical development next week or the following week, the consensus of the model guidance do show at least 2 to 3 tropical disturbances that may really need to be monitored for development. It should be noted that the model guidance have “missed” the development of eastern and central Atlantic tropical systems over the last couple of years and really didn’t forecast them until they actually formed.

Turning to the ensemble guidance, the GFS ensemble and to a certain extent the European ensemble guidance do show the eastern Atlantic waking up a little starting next week and continuing into the following week.

Given the strength of the upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation pushing into the Atlantic from the Pacific, it looks to me that we are going to have to really watch the area of the Atlantic from the Lesser Antilles to the coast of Africa for potential tropical development starting next week. It should be noted though that there is a large amount of dry air across the central and eastern Atlantic and if this dry air persists, this could squash any tropical disturbances from development.

So, possible eastern and central Atlantic tropical development is something to keep an eye on for next week and the following week & it is something that I will keep you all updated on.
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Re: Weather - cyclonic storm risk

These are the two most common sources I reference:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ (for data)
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ (for analysis, which also expands the data)

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It should be noted that the model guidance have “missed” the development of eastern and central Atlantic tropical systems over the last couple of years and really didn’t forecast them until they actually formed.
I can't say I recall an Atlantic storm that was missed, like this, last year. I have a habit of watching weather continuously. Not always because I need to know (but I often do for flying or sailing), but think one learns from watching patterns. Did you notice one?


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Re: Weather - cyclonic storm risk

I hit the nhc site every 1 to couple of days during this time of year
Thats my notice to watch
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Re: Weather - cyclonic storm risk

Like NHC
Also like tropical tidbits and discussions on ssb cruiser nets or local vhf nets to see what other people are thinking. Try to learn so like to get big picture concepts like mjo, jets streams, and what’s going on in the North Atlantic gyre. Find girbs helpful in trip planning but have been slogging through Lee Chesnau’s stuff and starting to understand their limitations.
I think what the quote I posted is referring to is the “pop up” events that didn’t occur off a wave or a gradually developing invest.
Find marine weather fascinating once you develop a modicum of facility with the jargon. Still at a newbie level just getting the concepts down. Wish they didn’t use so many abbreviations.

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Re: Weather - cyclonic storm risk

The only thing Gribs are notably missing, IMO, are synoptic charts (Prog charts in aviation terms). I really don't understand why, as they can't possibly create the data without them. For aviation weather planning, they are the absolute first thing one checks.


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