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post #11 of 24 Old 09-05-2019
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Re: Hurricanes mean no insurance vendors

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Broker explained it’s all about the increase in severity in the hurricane due to manmade climate change. Not so much frequency. Total losses of boats in hurricane cradles and strapped down or in hurricane holes or hurricane moorings/slips. Flooding totaling boats where precautions were undertaken. Total destruction of insured boats by other boats where precautions were inadequate.
Have storms really increased in severity? Or has technology resulted in more detected? "Sustained" winds only means the force sustained for 60 seconds! Maybe more accurate dropsondes from the aircraft and more weather stations on the surface has simply reported more high "sustained" winds. Maybe the financial costs reflect more people in more vulnerable locations often with less personal experience.

I have lived on the Gulf Coast for 72 hurricane seasons and people build and live in places that would never have been considered a generation ago (prior to feds subsidized flood insurance). And, there are so many pleasure boats now that you simply cannot get most of them in the less exposed locations (no location is truly safe for a boat!) In the end, surviving a hurricane is a stochastic process.
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post #12 of 24 Old 09-05-2019
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Re: Hurricanes mean no insurance vendors

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Have storms really increased in severity? Or has technology resulted in more detected?.......
Detection, especially of those that may never come near land, has improved greatly. Very old data is well known to be missing some number storms, if there was no land threat. However, our technology, since we started flying planes into them has been pretty good, so the last several decades can draw the reasonable conclusion we are getting more storms and more high category storms. However, this regressino line remains wildly variable from year to year.

I just recognize it as a fact. The planet changes. Always has and always will. We have to deal with it, adapt to it. Always have. Whether we always will is to be seen.


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post #13 of 24 Old 09-05-2019
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Re: Hurricanes mean no insurance vendors

I don't think it's just hurricanes causing the problem.

Boats are getting fancier with more complex systems.

Few people are going into the marine trades so prices for qualified tradespeople are increasing.

In the old days the mom and pop marinas might have gladly taken your insurance claim check, made your repair, and sent you on your way (maybe even with a few bucks left over) while today's corporate marinas will wring every last dollar out of insurance claim work.

Soft costs like surveyor fees, yard storage fees, mast storage fees, transportation, shipping of parts, etc. are through the roof and can grow to huge percentages of insured value before a single finger is lifted toward a repair.

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post #14 of 24 Old 09-05-2019 Thread Starter
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Re: Hurricanes mean no insurance vendors

OMS unfortunately itís not ascertainment bias. Although youíre right that measurements are more accurate the 5 point scale has been used for quite some years reliably.
Your point about unsuitable building in response to federally backed flood insurance is spot on. Couldnít agree more. Once again like with boat insurance the realist and careful pay for the indulgence and carefree attitude of others. Only difference is itís through mandatory taxes of one form or another with construction.
Thereís a series of what was originally unheated fishing shacks on our town beach. They were grandfathered when the town took the beach over. Most have been knocked down with luxurious two or three story houses built on the footprints. Every rebuilding is fancier than the last. At least one or two go down with a winter storm. Whereas elsewhere new construction needs to be on stilts and be 135 mph proof there it seems anything goes. Think thatís finally changing. Will see next spring.

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post #15 of 24 Old 09-05-2019
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Re: Hurricanes mean no insurance vendors

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$.....Iíve used paid captain/crew twice. Both times resulted in things getting broken. Lines chafed through. Fittings broken. Electronics messed up. Stains. I keep my boat Bristol. Itís time and money to get her back up to snuff after a paid delivery. Wonít do it again except in extremis.
I totally get that. I had a great skipper and he had access to various crew. I was actually connected to him, when another had to cancel at the last minute and made this recommendation. We actually became very good friends over time. He did several deliveries for me and got to the point where he was reluctant to charge, but I insisted. We visited each others homes, etc. I never questioned the condition of my boat. Yes, some things would break, but they were always wear and tear that would have broken for me too. There were times he did the delivery with crew and times he came along as my crew. Loved the guy. He passed away few years ago, at a young age, and I miss him dearly. Irreplaceable, both in competency and friendship.

If there is anything I could add, I do find you are likely to get what you pay for. Lot's of part time, inexperienced working for beer money. My friend had crewed aboard mega yachts and schooners and made several Caribbean deliveries per year, each way. My vessel was childs play for him.

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What has me appalled is my hurricane risk in R.I. during the ďhurricane seasonĒ is comparable to that with it sitting in a cradle in the southern bays of Grenada. Is not logical I should be treated as the same risk as a boat on the hard or in the water in the leewards or Bahamas. The risk June to November is actually higher in Florida, the Carolinas or even Jersey.
I get what you're saying intuitively, but I wonder if the math really works: Grenada v RI?

Grenada did take a Cat 3 hit about a dozen years ago and took a Tropical Storm hit in the last few years, as I recall. Perhaps this is suggesting some changes in pattern that are spooking the insurance companies. RI hasn't taken a direct hit since the 80s, unless I'm failing to recall. Many near misses.


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post #16 of 24 Old 09-05-2019
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Re: Hurricanes mean no insurance vendors

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However, our technology, since we started flying planes into them has been pretty good, so the last several decades can draw the reasonable conclusion we are getting more storms and more high category storms.
Actually, it was well-known on the Gulf Coast that we were in a lull from the 1940s until the 1990s. No one here was surprised when we got a run of storms and bigger storms after that. It's really a regression to the mean from the mid1800s through the 1920s. But regression to the mean is not "newsworthy" or good "clickbait"....

Pensacola was originally settled in 1559 but blew away in a storm in 1565. Almost the entire fleet sank and one of the wrecks was found just off of my mother's childhood home. The UWF archeology students regularly dive on it now. The Spanish abandoned the northern Gulf Coast as too dangerous for habitation and did not come back until mid-1600s (1648, I think.)
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Re: Hurricanes mean no insurance vendors

OldMan, I'm sure you're right. I think both angles are right. I think the overall regression line is upward sloping, but not as dramatically as some make it sound. Individual examples are often flawed. Nevertheless, it will get there. Everything changes.


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post #18 of 24 Old 09-05-2019
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Re: Hurricanes mean no insurance vendors

Insurance premiums reflect loss history and the insurer's return on invested premiums -primarily bonds. When bond returns drop premiums go up.
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post #19 of 24 Old 09-05-2019
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Re: Hurricanes mean no insurance vendors

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Despite the increased trend in storm numbers and severity (I don't understand the purpose of introducing man made, it irrelevant to the point and gratuitously inflammatory)
It's extremely relevant to the point. An upward trend due to, say, sunspots, could easily reverse next year. Since the increase in storm intensity has been shown to be caused primarily by anthropogenic climate change, once can confidently predict that this trend will continue for the foreseeable future. Given that, the insurance companies need to build up a reserve to be able to pay out for future losses.
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post #20 of 24 Old 09-05-2019
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Re: Hurricanes mean no insurance vendors

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It's extremely relevant to the point......
I said it was irrelevant to the point of the insurance company's concern. They are concerned about destructive storms trend, not specifically what's causing them. I'm not suggesting they are caused by anything else, but it wouldn't matter what was causing them, if the trend is rising, it's rising. Risk is increasing, premiums are increasing.


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