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9 foot waves with a 6 second period currently on Lake Ontario

10K views 78 replies 24 participants last post by  Arcb 
#1 ·
I can't imagine that would be any fun.
 
#5 · (Edited)
#4 ·
Look at eastern seaboard. Starting Thursday and continuing for awhile wave heights are shocking. Timing departures for Bermuda, Bahamas and eastern Caribbean from pretty much anywhere on the east coast is going to be a challenge this year.
Think insurance companies are stupid. The artificial November first date no longer makes any sense. Close friend on sistership just did Naragansett to chessie. Left Monday got in Wednesday and just missed total snot leaving just after a front and arriving just before the next.
Everywhere it’s the same thing. Much shorter windows. Much more aggressive weather. Welcome to the new normal from man made climate change.
 
#12 ·
Look at eastern seaboard. Starting Thursday and continuing for awhile wave heights are shocking. Timing departures for Bermuda, Bahamas and eastern Caribbean from pretty much anywhere on the east coast is going to be a challenge this year.
Think insurance companies are stupid. The artificial November first date no longer makes any sense. Close friend on sistership just did Naragansett to chessie. Left Monday got in Wednesday and just missed total snot leaving just after a front and arriving just before the next.
Everywhere it's the same thing. Much shorter windows. Much more aggressive weather. Welcome to the new normal from man made climate change.
Any reason you wouldn't leave for Bermuda today? I don't see much over 2m until next Friday. If anything, light winds on passage.

Yes, weather patterns are changing. I just don't understand the doom and gloom.
 
#9 ·
I've always hated leaving Newport after November 1st for Bermuda. Being such a short trip to Bermuda, there's very little chance of not having a pretty good weather window leaving significantly earlier even considering it's still hurricane season. I actually had a pretty mellow trip the last time we left Newport October 8th. But it certainly wasn't a pleasure cruise. If our boat speed under sail dropped to 6 knots; on came the engine!
 
#13 ·
What is more disconcerting for those of us in the Great Lakes Basin is that currently we are roughly 36" above the historical mean average for this time of year, only once in the last 100 years has this level been surpassed and that was in 1986. I was walking the downtowns of several East side of Lake Michigan harbors this week, and they are at, or just below breaching the seawalls, still. Docks are at water level, or just above or below in many marinas. I cannot imagine what next spring will look like for many coastal towns and cities, considering many of them have very tourist driven economies.
 
#14 ·
Small bodies of water can be rougher than large. If you fill a bathtub with water and blow into it, your exhale representing a storm, you'll see waves go wide and smooth . If you do the same in a bowl it's not so calm. The Great Lakes don't have much of a swell, it's more of a massive chop.
 
#20 ·
And always a lee shore, usually a rocky one.

Almost completely eliminates heavy weather options some ocean sailors like to use. Drogues and sea anchors for example are pretty much not a thing on the GL. Pretty much no passive techniques except for heaving to are really an option, you have to be able to sail your way out of dirty weather.
 
#15 ·
The water levels were tricky this year. We had normally docile channels in the TI change to rapids this year. Big current driven standing waves several feet tall in areas normally frequented by pontoon house boats. Shore lines flooded to the trees made beach landings sketchy.

We cut our annual summer vacation in the TI a week short this year because damaged infrastructure meant more boats using fewer resources and our normal strategy of beaching was out because the high water levels would have meant beaching in the forest instead of on a beach, which is too sketchy for me.

I read Fridays storm conspired with the water levels to push the sunken steel barge on the upper Niagara further down stream. Hasn't moved in something like 100 years. It would be something else seeing that barge go over the falls.

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/c...01-year-old-shipwreck-closer-to-niagara-falls
 
#16 ·
Minnie was just pointing out the changes are wide spread and suitable windows spring/fall much briefer. Live in Plymouth. Last two significant wind storms flooded downtown’ s Water Street. That street expected to flood with the king tides all winter long. Going back 5-10 years since the 1600s that street flooded maybe once a year or less. As sailors mmcc is effecting us now. They say “the wind doesn’t kill you....it’s the waves”. Have seen a change in friends/aquaintances decisions. What boats they buy. When they go sailing. Where they go. Etc.
Some rallies now suggest you should be in 40’ or greater. That you need a reasonable hull speed to be safe.
 
#21 ·
Minnie agree was being egocentric. Was just looking at Naragansett to Norfolk in that time period. Sunday sucked and Thursday was going to be bad as well. Boat left Monday. Fortunately wind made for a broad reach and 180 m days for 2 days. Short window but nothing remarkable these days.
Hate stopping in Bermuda. Waste time. Lose crew. Spend mucho dinero. Much prefer going a bit south of Bermuda and doing a straight shot. Only use Bermuda as a bailout.
Salient points remain. The transition seasons (fall/spring) are much confused. Windows seem to be shorter. Although waves in fall seem the same coming off of Africa due to warmer waters in western Atlantic don’t dissipate and remain organized troughs even after turning north for longer.
Everyone seems to focused on hurricanes which is understandable. But on the day to day both for coastal sailing and ocean believe the lack of being able to predict activity in the shoulder seasons also would seem to be important. Believe the old thinking “if I leave after November 1 and before the winter gales I’ll be okay “ needs to be examined. Just like leaving before June 1st on the other side.
 
#22 ·
Certainly not every one is focused on hurricanes. The typical great lakes sailor (this thread was originally about waves on Lake Erie) couldn't care less about the climactic conditions on the US East coast. Its not some where that most of us sail, or even want to sail.

I would say the typical great lakes sailor is much more concerned about the inevitable freeze up, snow loads and spring floods than they are about hurricanes.
 
#26 ·
Around here they are offering cash incentives for people to move away from the river banks. I beleive there is also a new policy in place on the Quebec side that limits the number of times people can apply for disaster releif for a given home. I guess the idea is, if you can't stop the flooding, than at least mitigate the impact. Seems reasonable to me on the surface, but I haven't looked into it closely.

2019 saw a lot of navigation restrictions throughout the great lakes region. The Ottawa river was closed to all navigation for something like a month. The idea I think was to minimise the risk of boat wakes over topping levies/sand bag walls. I agree, its interesting stuff to contemplate.
 
#27 ·
Around here they are offering cash incentives for people to move away from the river banks. I beleive there is also a new policy in place on the Quebec side that limits the number of times people can apply for disaster releif for a given home. I guess the idea is, if you can't stop the flooding, than at least mitigate the impact. .....
My sweet goodness. Finally a government is getting the idea. Humans can't stop the inevitable, so get out of the damn way. There will need to be more on a grand scale. Miami and NYC were not always there and simply won't always be there. Figure it out.
 
#29 · (Edited)
I've also read there are basins for managing higher water levels. I can't recall if they were natural or man made, but seem to recall they are manually manipulated. I don't follow that either.

It's sad to know that cities like Montreal are built in a place that will not be habitable in the future, but it's a simple fact. We can not change that future. Perhaps they can build a defense around it and buy more generations. The Appalachian Mountain range runs from Alabama to the Northeastern US. They once marked the coastline of North America, even though they are now 100+ miles inland, or more, and were flat land. Then the African Continent pushed into it and the collision squeezed up the Mountain range. At that time, they were higher than the Himalayas are today (including Everest). Then they wore down. How about the earth has been covered in ice, more than once, and has heated back up and melted it. Even the atmosphere wasn't always breathable by humans.

Most just don't seem to understand, everything we know is temporary.
 
#30 · (Edited)
They do have reservoirs that are drawn down in the fall to take up some of the spring melt water. I was out paddling on one today. Its a 25 km section of canal that is drawn down to its natural pre canal flow rate. Which equates to about a 5 foot reduction in depth by about a few hundred feet across by 25 km long. Not sure what that adds up to, but its quite a bit of melt water. But, its already full before the end of April. 2017 it had already swollen its banks in April. Great lakes water levels don't peak until June.

I did read about an interesting flood control project in Winnipeg where they built a massive concrete spill way around the city which diverts the flood water from the Red River around the city.

Both Canadian CG and American CG Ice Breakers work the Detroit and St Clair rivers in the spring clearing out naturally forming ice dams to improve flow. I have seen dynamite used to break up ice dams to get more water flowing out of the system earlier too.

Its a lot of water though. The great lakes drainage basin is big and in cold winters like 2019, there is a whole lot of melt water in the spring.

Heres an ice dynamiting vid I found on youtube :D

 
#31 ·
I did read about an interesting flood control project in Winnipeg where they built a massive concrete spill way around the city which diverts the flood water from the Red River around the city.
The Red River is interesting because it flows from south to north, so the headwaters thaw first and start to send water downstream to the north where it's still frozen. It's a good recipe for flooding.

Winnipeg's ditch was dug in the 50s and has proven to be very successful. During flood times it can divert most of the water around the city.

I moved out of Grand Forks, North Dakota just a few months before the disastrous flood (and fire) of '97 that destroyed much of downtown. They now have high embankments and flood walls that should keep the city safe.

Further upstream Fargo is still at great risk from flooding. They want to build a diversion like Winnipeg has, but the project is stalled. I think it should stay stalled. Last time I looked at the numbers it seemed like it would be more cost effective to buy out every single house in the area affected.

This all empties into Hudson Bay and has no effect on the Great Lakes.
 
#38 ·
I don't know if your father-in-law was in Beverly Shores, but we are seeing some 'interesting' times now. The lake levels have been high, but now with the winter storms starting to hit, we are seeing a lot of erosion.



Don't have the press releases or news articles in front of me, but the Army Corps still say that what they let in and out is minor in the scheme of things.
 
#43 ·
Dominica after the destruction of it last hurricane has mounted a island wide mandate that all new buildings be appropriately placed and hurricane proof. They also instituted a island wide mandate on no disposable plastic, no garbage burning and a goal of no emission of green house gasses. They are quite poor. Other than Haiti I think the poorest in the Caribbean.
My federal government in a highly developed country is going the opposite way.
I just finished building a zero footprint house on the shore of a pond in a park. I got town and state rebates. I got rebates from my energy company and I sell electricity to them. I got nothing from the feds. My house is 24’ above high water level of the pond. My windows are 135 mph. My framing is cross membered or wired anchored to survive 180mph as is my roof.
Pay back for the zero energy part is just under 3 years. Additional for storm proof build 5% of total cost.
Believe in absence of fed government action as time goes by economic imperatives will change behavior. Most instrumental would be to get rid of federal flood insurance. Private markets would reflect real risk and costs more accurately.
 
#45 ·
Should note I have no issue with one final pay out. Then either take that money and move or build flood resistant at that site and take your chances. That would phase out the program in a somewhat humane fashion. However land that’s periodically under water or always under water is worth less and should be deemed so.
 
#47 ·
My youngest daughter married a good soul from Rockaway. A neighbor of mostly cops and firemen. His mom still is there. That neighborhood basically disappeared with sandy. Many had no insurance as it was unaffordable. Most families have been there for decades. Those with insurance rebuilt. Others not. Tragic real human costs to CC.
 
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