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Dorian taking aim at us here on East coast of Florida

20K views 185 replies 33 participants last post by  MikeOReilly 
#1 ·
Forecast does not look good - CAT 4 - hitting around Melbourne - of course that is where my boat is ( Liberty 28) survived last 2 hurricanes ( Irma and Matthew) on the hook off city of Cocoa but with my old Pearson 26 - now in a slip - the slips are behind a condo complex at the very tip of the Banana River before it empties into the Indian River - its pretty protected and I have experience with riding out hurricanes ( the boat ) in slips - however a direct hit from a CAT 4 - and all bets are off - will be stripping the boat tomorrow and tripling up dock lines - and put out every fender I have - not sure how much storm surge there will be - Cape Canaveral the closest inlet has a lock to protect the Indian and Banana rivers - the next inlet south is a small one at Sebastian - but that is a good 30-40 miles away - of course if it is a true Cat 4 - the ocean could cross AIA and its olny about 1/2 mie to marina.

Have one question - my boat has a bowsprit with 2 anchors hanging off it - might just take them off and back to house or could drop them straight down - and use the chain as a dampening force against the bow bouncing up and down - not sure it would make much of a difference
 
#155 ·
Why should it?
How do you prevent a Cat 5 hurricane?
Even the concrete buildings got flattened.
How do you prevent storm surge?

I guess we should have a moratorium on building with in 20 miles of all coastal waters . That way no one is affected.

Instead of mandatory evacuations maybe we should declare Marshall law and force people out of potential hit zones. Course that’s hard to predict accurately. No one predicted it woukd linger 36 hours ahead of time over the Bahamas. No one could have predicted a week ahead of time it would roll up the coast 70 miles offshore.

People already build differently in hurricane areas , but there will still always be destruction.

I think the NHC predicted as best they could according to current technologies but predicting will always be a science of probabilities. It continues to increase in accuracy but there will always be the Monday morning quarterbacks from their computer perches pointing out what was missed or where it actually went using 20/20 hindsight.

Unfortunately we are relegated to REACTING to natural disasters. That is where even more criticism come in.

Note here it is the United States who answers the call worldwide. Whether it’s Bahamas, earthquakes in Haiti , e bola in Africa. And the US does it without regard of political persuasions. The American taxpayers foot the bill to. Many American corporations ( though more and more are international) donate to the disaster products and efforts. The US Navy is usually the first to arrive to help, no matter where in the world. Unfortunately. This part of our generosity and care for other humans goes virtually unnoticed or unrecognized

Instead there is criticism . That’s doesn’t mean we can’t improve but for goodness sake, thank god for US satellights, US meteorological data, US assets . and US money.

So what should we learn ? How would it have saved the Bahamians from a horrible force of nature. .
 
#156 · (Edited)
Just to note that the Brits pre-positioned a landing craft vessel equipped with much equipment, water carriers, a helicopter and two badges to land such. They are already landing equipment and supplies.

I think that is pretty good work.

The RFA Mounts Bay crew have so far delivered shelter kits, ration packs and water. The Wildcat will also be airlifting relief to outlying, cut off communities in liaison with the Royal Bahamian Defence Force.

The ship has been in the Caribbean since June in preparation for the hurricane season and was re-tasked last week to sail to The Bahamas in anticipation of Hurricane Dorian, the strongest ever recorded in The Bahamas.

RFA Mounts Bay has embarked a dedicated Humanitarian and Disaster Relief team, and is carrying vital aid and specialist equipment. It also stores Department for International Development water carriers, hygiene kits including basic items such as soap, and shelter kits. Since Hurricane Dorian hit, a liaison officer from the Royal Bahamas Defence Force and a DFID humanitarian expert have been onboard to help coordinate the relief efforts.
 
#157 ·
The immediate disaster response to the Bahamas will be adequate.

Where the huge disparity will be is the huge sums invested into hurricane damage in the USA compared to the Bahamas.

Puerto Rico population 3.4 million Vs Bahamas Population 395,000
PR, Political arguing aside - received $41 BILLION (maybe up to $90 billion long term) from the US Federal government. Is any country going to give the Bahamas $4 billion?

I notice China is trying to make grants for hurricane relief so they can 'buy' the Bahamas - China has already built the worlds largest container port in the Bahamas, in Freetown.

Perhaps the US/China battle will work well for the Bahamas... but to the tune of $4B? I doubt it.

Make no mistake, if you are going to have a natural disaster quickly move your country into the United States!
 
#158 ·
The average historical record of hurricane paths show which areas are vulnerable. But this has hardly deterred development and use of this land. There is little that can be done to make this development sustainable. Insurance is hardly and solution.

Since the gov and relief agencies are always picking up the pieces and the costs... perhaps it's time for a political solution where property is "bought back" and the vulnerable areas are returned to "nature" and become "barriers"...buffers. The time frame needs to see the buy back over multiple years with perhaps the greatest pay offs for those who move out sooner.

It's really stupid to put yourself, your family and your property in a perilous situation. Many people didn't know, or didn't believe the risk was high enough. Now they do. Now they have to undo their mistake.

I have a friend who sold their Fire Island home because they understood the inevitable fate of their community. Smart move. They moved up to Vermont.

Obviously high areas which are in the paths of hurricanes with still take a battering... but likely nothing like what we see in the low lying coastal areas.
 
#159 ·
I think it's only appropriate to rebuild low lying, hurricane or sea rise vulnerable areas, if they can economically sustain themselves through the next inevitable disaster. These disasters are assured periodically, they aren't freaks of nature. It makes no sense to continually rebuild coastlines that don't generate the resources to be sustainable themselves.

Perhaps there are exceptions to the rule and some retired grandmother in Nebraska may want to pay taxes to subsidize a flood insurance and disaster program to be sure some part of the country is rebuilt over and over. I doubt there are many exceptions.

I'm in favor of saying, here's the money from the flood/disaster/whatever program. You can either rebuild there or somewhere else. If you rebuild there, you're totally on your own next time. I'm sure the idea needs some tweaking for exceptions, such as China wanting to control/own an island off our coast. That somewhat how we ended up with Puerto Rico and the USVIs. Now that they no longer serve the same purpose, it's a problem, because they cost multiple times more than they create in economic value.
 
#163 ·
The Bahamas, Montserrat, St Vincent, St Lucia, Grenada, and Dominica have all been given self rule.

St Martin, Guadeloupe, Martinique have not.

Make the comparison.

Lots of folks complain how poorly LR was treated after the hurricanes. Now look at how Dominica was treated. Make the comparison.

The Chinese Re already make it inroads in the Caribbean, they are building a rather large housing block in St. David’s, Grenada and are helping Dominique to fix the roads the Chinese originally built.

While I may be missing something the only signs of USA aide I see are coming from private works.

Will be gladly corrected if I am wrong.
 
#182 · (Edited)
A bit, not much. About 20 years ago a hurricane eye rolled right into Halifax harbor. We had Igor in Newfoundland more recently, not a wind event but heavy rain did a lot of damage, stranded entire towns, and swept away one person.

Watching Dorian Head North at the moment. It was bigger on the S and W coast. Here it was a little wind and rain.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Canada_hurricanes

Damage left by Juan.
September 29, 2003: Hurricane Juan is sometimes considered Atlantic Canada's most widely destructive hurricane in over a century. Juan killed 8 and caused over $200 million in damage. Power outages in Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island left over 300,000 Canadians without power for two weeks. Many marinas were destroyed and many small fish craft were damaged or sank. Hurricane-force gusts were reported as far out as 100 miles (160 km) on either side of Juan at landfall with an astounding peak gust of 144 mph (229 km/h) (equivalent to a Category 4 hurricane) recorded in Halifax Harbour, although it was a Category 2 at landfall with 100 mph (160 km/h) sustained winds.[26]
 
#172 ·
Not sure if this is due to Dorian, but tide in Chesapeake where I am is almost 2' above normal. Yesterday Dorian seemed to suck a lot of water out (tides were at normal, vs 1' above normal that they've been virtually all summer. Maybe it's due to runoff from yesterday's rains, but we didn't get much more than an occasional drizzle.

 

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#176 ·
Not sure if this is due to Dorian, but tide in Chesapeake where I am is almost 2' above normal. Yesterday Dorian seemed to suck a lot of water out (tides were at normal, vs 1' above normal that they've been virtually all summer.
The water has to come from somewhere. The water in my bayou was the lowest I've seen for summertime in many, many years. (Northern Gulf Coast)

Years ago a storm hit Pcola and sucked all the water out of Mobile Bay. The only water left was the main ship channel, like an extension of Mobile River, and people were walking all the way out to it.
 
#173 ·
I'm thinking the south side of Dorian, as she moved north, which would have had westerly flow, was pushing water into the Chessy and Delaware. The Bay up here only got about a foot of surge and was on an outward tide, when it passed. Saw 35-40kt winds max for only a very short time. The Bay entrance got the traditional high surf.
 
#175 ·
I'm thinking the south side of Dorian, as she moved north, which would have had westerly flow, was pushing water into the Chessy and Delaware.
I'd think westerly flow would push water out, not in.
 
#181 ·
There was an easterly flow from the NW quadrant of Dorian for two days successively driving water into the mouth of the Chessie for 4 successive high tides and preventing it from exiting. That coupled with rain caused the high tides. The tides were predicted. Waxing gibbous of the moon didn’t contribute as it was in its 9th day past a new moon.

I noticed our boat unusually high and Annapolis City Dock had minor flooding.
 
#183 · (Edited)
I’m weathering Dorian here on the NE side of Newfoundland in Lewisporte (which Hpeer knows well). So far so good. We’ve seen sustained 40s, into 50s at times, but no surge and the marina seems well built.

As long as my lines remain in place and the fenders last I should be OK. But we just had our first near-casualty when a foresail tried to unfurl. A bunch of us got there in time to get it re-wrapped.

Fun fun...:eek:

ADD: The foresail was on another boat … not mine.
 
#184 ·
I'm weathering Dorian here on the NE side of Newfoundland in Lewisporte (which Hpeer knows well). So far so good. We've seen sustained 40s, into 50s at times, but no surge and the marina seems well built.

As long as my lines remain in place and the fenders last I should be OK. But we just had our first near-casualty when a foresail tried to unfurl. A bunch of us got there in time to get it re-wrapped.

Fun fun...:eek:

ADD: The foresail was on another boat … not mine.
Goood to hear your safe.
 
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