TS Joaquin - Page 2 - SailNet Community
 49Likes
Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools
post #11 of 88 Old 09-29-2015 Thread Starter
Otter
 
DivingOtter's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Toms River NJ
Posts: 331
Thanks: 0
Thanked 4 Times in 3 Posts
Rep Power: 8
 
Guess they changed it. The models I were looking at showed around hatteras on saturday. In any event, we can only do what we can do. Like I said, I never need spring lines and don't have the cleats so I have no choice for this. Around the winches and oversized balls overboard.
DivingOtter is offline  
Sponsored Links
Advertisement
 
post #12 of 88 Old 09-29-2015
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: Northeast U.S
Posts: 1,983
Thanks: 5
Thanked 75 Times in 72 Posts
Rep Power: 6
 
Re: TS Joaquin

Quote:
Originally Posted by eherlihy View Post
latest spaghetti is ALL over the map;




I'm no expert, but I find it hard to believe that it will pull that sudden 120+ (from 240 to 000) hook to starboard.
What a mess! Looks like a lot of tracks head over the ICW and some into upstate New York. Could disrupt cruises south and mess up the Erie Canal too. I'm a little worried about coastal flooding here, A few days of nne winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 29 could make it tough for the harbors on the North shore of LI to drain between tides and this is before Joaquin may head this way.

Mike
Currently: Enjoying Summer's sailing season

To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.


To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
mbianka is online now  
post #13 of 88 Old 09-29-2015 Thread Starter
Otter
 
DivingOtter's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Toms River NJ
Posts: 331
Thanks: 0
Thanked 4 Times in 3 Posts
Rep Power: 8
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by mbianka View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by eherlihy View Post
latest spaghetti is ALL over the map;




I'm no expert, but I find it hard to believe that it will pull that sudden 120+ (from 240 to 000) hook to starboard.
What a mess! Looks like a lot of tracks head over the ICW and some into upstate New York. Could disrupt cruises south and mess up the Erie Canal too. I'm a little worried about coastal flooding here, A few days of nne winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 29 could make it tough for the harbors on the North shore of LI to drain between tides and this is before Joaquin may head this way.
That's my fear is the flooding. Last full moon I pulled into the slip and the water was about touching the top of the bulkhead. It usually sits around the upper whaler. The Toms River is a nightmare with flooding with the right tides and wind direction since the water has no where to go. Add a high tide and that was one of the major factors of Sandy.
DivingOtter is offline  
 
post #14 of 88 Old 09-30-2015 Thread Starter
Otter
 
DivingOtter's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Toms River NJ
Posts: 331
Thanks: 0
Thanked 4 Times in 3 Posts
Rep Power: 8
 
Friend of mine is a meteorologist from Rutgers. Things are getting VERY interesting in terms of blocking over Greenland and potential for a trough to either push it out to sea, or slingshot it back into the coast. The last time this setup occurred was Sandy.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=soMdbo4F3eY
Sal Paradise likes this.
DivingOtter is offline  
post #15 of 88 Old 09-30-2015
Senior Member
 
RichH's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Pennsylvania
Posts: 5,042
Thanks: 54
Thanked 328 Times in 312 Posts
Rep Power: 21
   
Re: TS Joaquin

Theres a new 'low' to form over Hatteras in 96 hrs. ... it all depend if this new Low 'couples' with Joachim and steers it into land or it stays detached and lets it continue to the N-NNE. Crap shoot.

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_96hrsfc.gif
mbianka likes this.
RichH is offline  
post #16 of 88 Old 09-30-2015 Thread Starter
Otter
 
DivingOtter's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Toms River NJ
Posts: 331
Thanks: 0
Thanked 4 Times in 3 Posts
Rep Power: 8
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by RichH View Post
Theres a new 'low' to form over Hatteras in 96 hrs. ... it all depend if this new Low 'couples' with Joachim and steers it into land or it stays detached and lets it continue to the N-NNE. Crap shoot.

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_96hrsfc.gif
Yep. I surf and used to pray for hurricanes. After gutting my house and seeing what difference 50 miles in any direction can make it kind of humbled me. Hoping for the best, preparing for the worst with what little time I have . Let's hope it bumps out to sea. We used to haul our boat by ourselves in situations like this and keep it on a hill in a yard. That luxury is gone since my back is shot and I can't drop and step the mast.
mbianka likes this.
DivingOtter is offline  
post #17 of 88 Old 09-30-2015 Thread Starter
Otter
 
DivingOtter's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Toms River NJ
Posts: 331
Thanks: 0
Thanked 4 Times in 3 Posts
Rep Power: 8
 
TS Joaquin

Looking more and more threatening. From my friend who's a meteorologist at Rutgers.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=soMdbo4F3eY
mbianka likes this.
DivingOtter is offline  
post #18 of 88 Old 09-30-2015
Senior Member
 
RichH's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Pennsylvania
Posts: 5,042
Thanks: 54
Thanked 328 Times in 312 Posts
Rep Power: 21
   
Re: TS Joaquin

As of 6AM today, virtually all the spaghetti models are predicting that H. Joachin will have a high probability of hitting the outer banks/mouth of the Chesapeake. For us Chesapeake sailors that means the Ches will be on the 'super-windy' side of the storm and will possibly have severe flooding / high surge for the whole Ches.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storm...cks_latest.png

Looks like DivingOtter's Rutgers friend is dead-on with his prediction of what the newly forming inverted trough in NC is going to do in 'steering' this storm inland.

Last edited by RichH; 09-30-2015 at 09:49 AM.
RichH is offline  
post #19 of 88 Old 09-30-2015
Senior Member
 
guitarguy56's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 1,341
Thanks: 14
Thanked 46 Times in 44 Posts
Rep Power: 7
 
Re: TS Joaquin

Quote:
Originally Posted by DivingOtter View Post
Looking more and more threatening. From my friend who's a meteorologist at Rutgers.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=soMdbo4F3eY
I have been monitoring this hurricane now since this former tropical storm Ida was just crazy in the mid Atlantic... The forecast calls for this hurricane to move up the north Atlantic coast... nothing says this storm can't turn and hit the lower southeast coast... time will tell... right now we have been experiencing huge tides (flooding along the coasts) here in Savannah.
guitarguy56 is offline  
post #20 of 88 Old 09-30-2015
Old enough to know better
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Beacon, NY
Posts: 4,325
Thanks: 28
Thanked 187 Times in 182 Posts
Rep Power: 13
 
Re: TS Joaquin

Quote:
Originally Posted by guitarguy56 View Post
I have been monitoring this hurricane now since this former tropical storm Ida was just crazy in the mid Atlantic... The forecast calls for this hurricane to move up the north Atlantic coast... nothing says this storm can't turn and hit the lower southeast coast... time will tell... right now we have been experiencing huge tides (flooding along the coasts) here in Savannah.
Well tides are really high because the moon is so close, so it is a double whammy. I believe that was what both Irene and Sandy so damaging, was that the tides were already very high before the storm surge hit. But the storm tracking on this one seems especially wide ranging.
miatapaul is offline  
Reply

Quick Reply
Message:
Options

By choosing to post the reply above you agree to the rules you agreed to when joining Sailnet.
Click Here to view those rules.

Register Now



In order to be able to post messages on the SailNet Community forums, you must first register.
Please enter your desired user name, your email address and other required details in the form below.
Please note: After entering 3 characters a list of Usernames already in use will appear and the list will disappear once a valid Username is entered.


User Name:
Password
Please enter a password for your user account. Note that passwords are case-sensitive.

Password:


Confirm Password:
Email Address
Please enter a valid email address for yourself.

Email Address:
OR

Log-in











Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Show Printable Version
Email this Page Email this Page



Posting Rules  
You may post new threads
You may post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On

 
For the best viewing experience please update your browser to Google Chrome