TS Joaquin - Page 3 - SailNet Community
 49Likes
Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools
post #21 of 88 Old 09-30-2015
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: Northeast U.S
Posts: 2,080
Thanks: 5
Thanked 78 Times in 75 Posts
Rep Power: 6
 
Re: TS Joaquin

Quote:
Originally Posted by RichH View Post
As of 6AM today, virtually all the spaghetti models are predicting that H. Joachin will have a high probability of hitting the outer banks/mouth of the Chesapeake. For us Chesapeake sailors that means the Ches will be on the 'super-windy' side of the storm and will possibly have severe flooding / high surge for the whole Ches.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storm...cks_latest.png

Looks like DivingOtter's Rutgers friend is dead-on with his prediction of what the newly forming inverted trough in NC is going to do in 'steering' this storm inland.
Interesting but, disturbing analysis Rich H. Going to be an interesting weekend here on the Isle of Long. Mr. NOAA calling for gale conditions Friday into Saturday. Those winds will keep pushing water into Long Island Sound for several days. Have a coastal flood warning for today already. Expect more as the week continues. Glad I cleaned the gutters on the house yesterday. Planing on heading back to the boat tomorrow to take the anchor off the bow to avoid any chance of it chaffing any mooring lines once the gales hit. This is without Joaquin deciding what it is going to do. Here's some video I took at what things looked like along the coast the day before Sandy hit a few years ago:
THE BIANKA LOG BLOG: BUH BYE SANDY!
The day after Sandy I found my boat floating 1,000 feet from where I left her. Still attached to the mooring but, luckily no real damage. Storm surge is serious stuff.

Mike
Currently: Heading to warm waters over the winter on a variety of boats.

To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.


To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.

Last edited by mbianka; 09-30-2015 at 01:22 PM.
mbianka is online now  
Sponsored Links
Advertisement
 
post #22 of 88 Old 09-30-2015
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Cape Cod
Posts: 1,691
Thanks: 19
Thanked 115 Times in 111 Posts
Rep Power: 11
 
Re: TS Joaquin

I know most of the latest spaghetti has this one into the coast below me, but given the way this thing is moving so slow, I don't think anything is certain yet. The coastal forecast for the next few days is 30 kts or greater, so even if you wanted to run from my neighborhood, it would be no picnic. This is unusual here, usually we have a few nice days before a threat, time to prepare, move boats, etc. Not much of that will be going on here.
capecodda is online now  
post #23 of 88 Old 09-30-2015
Learning the HARD way...
 
eherlihy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Boston / Ft Myers Area
Posts: 6,832
Thanks: 393
Thanked 296 Times in 291 Posts
Rep Power: 13
 
Re: TS Joaquin

This spaghetti map from TWC;


As I stated before "ALL over the map!"

I suspect that they really don't have a clue about this one...


To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.

USCG Licensed OUPV Captain, ASA 101/103/104/105/106/114/118 Instructor - Also certified in Marine Electrical Systems


To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
eherlihy is online now  
 
post #24 of 88 Old 09-30-2015 Thread Starter
Otter
 
DivingOtter's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Toms River NJ
Posts: 331
Thanks: 0
Thanked 4 Times in 3 Posts
Rep Power: 8
 
Short of a haul out, this is the best I can do for today. I'll be checking her tomorrow as well and pushed my departure to the Hamptons until Friday at noon. After diving salvage after Sandy I realized a hauled boat isn't always the best. I have no slip neighbor so the owner said I can slide over and take up both slips.
Attached Thumbnails
image_1443633880598.jpg  
DivingOtter is offline  
post #25 of 88 Old 09-30-2015 Thread Starter
Otter
 
DivingOtter's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Toms River NJ
Posts: 331
Thanks: 0
Thanked 4 Times in 3 Posts
Rep Power: 8
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by capecodda View Post
I know most of the latest spaghetti has this one into the coast below me, but given the way this thing is moving so slow, I don't think anything is certain yet. The coastal forecast for the next few days is 30 kts or greater, so even if you wanted to run from my neighborhood, it would be no picnic. This is unusual here, usually we have a few nice days before a threat, time to prepare, move boats, etc. Not much of that will be going on here.
Dually noted. I was at the dock at 0745 laying storm lines out and was the only one there. By 0830 one by one people started pulling in and getting ready to haul. Here in NJ the tide is above the bulkhead and the wind is honking. We have miserable weather all the way until a hurricane arrives. I think marinas learned from Sandy though on waiting to till the last minute and taking the gamble.
DivingOtter is offline  
post #26 of 88 Old 09-30-2015
Master Mariner
 
capta's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: somewhere south of civilization
Posts: 7,287
Thanks: 138
Thanked 393 Times in 381 Posts
Rep Power: 9
 
Re: TS Joaquin

[QUOTE=eherlihy;3055865] I'm no expert, but I find it hard to believe that it will pull that sudden 120+ (from 240 to 000) hook to starboard.QUOTE]
Believe it!
I've seen them do fish hooks, circles and double circles!
Go west instead of the predicted north east and had one cat 3 disappear entirely in the Old Bahama Channel just hours from tearing into the Keys, a complete shocker to all. One Ivan was misforecast by nearly 200 miles some years back; we all got that one way wrong.
The NWS/NHC have a lot of 'cry wolf' rules that hamper their ability to tell the public what they 'think' will happen, so be prepared for the worst (over and over again) and that one time when it is your turn, you'll be OK.

"Any idiot can make a boat go; it takes a sailor to stop one." Spike Africa aboard the schooner Wanderer in Sausalito, Ca. 1964.
Believe me, my young friend, there is nothing - absolutely nothing - half so much worth doing as simply messing about in boats. ― Kenneth Grahame, The Wind in the Willows

To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.

facebook.com/svskippingstone
capta is online now  
post #27 of 88 Old 09-30-2015 Thread Starter
Otter
 
DivingOtter's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Toms River NJ
Posts: 331
Thanks: 0
Thanked 4 Times in 3 Posts
Rep Power: 8
 
My options are limited in travel. After Sandy I realized on the hard in a crowded yard isn't very desirable. I used dynamic climbing lines on the stern, and since I don't have spring cleats I used the same style lines to hitch to the winch, through the Genoa block and spread as wide as possible for a makeshift spring and used a double fishermans knot which will bite down hard when pressure is applied. Same with the bow lines and added a single line to the bow eye. Removed the sails, centered and lashed the boom. In this area it's not the swell, it's the surge. Tried to give her the room to sit as high as possible. So, as of now, she's staying wet.
DivingOtter is offline  
post #28 of 88 Old 09-30-2015
Captain Obvious
 
Sal Paradise's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: New York
Posts: 2,190
Thanks: 25
Thanked 89 Times in 88 Posts
Rep Power: 8
 
Re: TS Joaquin

When I see the big commercial ships coming up the Hudson I will think its Son of Sandy.

For now I am wonderingwhy the European model shows the storm staying out in the Atlantic

http://weather.unisys.com/ecmwf/ecmwf_500p_4panel.gif


Sal Paradise - Armchair Circumnavigator

Senior Researcher - Dunning Kruger
Sal Paradise is online now  
post #29 of 88 Old 09-30-2015
Senior Member
 
RichH's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Pennsylvania
Posts: 5,065
Thanks: 54
Thanked 330 Times in 314 Posts
Rep Power: 21
   
Re: TS Joaquin

The 1800Z hrs. combined spaghetti maps are averaging for a Mid NC coast hit.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storm...cks_latest.png

RichH is online now  
post #30 of 88 Old 09-30-2015 Thread Starter
Otter
 
DivingOtter's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Toms River NJ
Posts: 331
Thanks: 0
Thanked 4 Times in 3 Posts
Rep Power: 8
 
My meteorologist buddy from Rutgers first call. He's been pretty dead on so far. Insisting the trough would suck it back into land when other forecasts were holding onto the thought it would bump out to sea. His highest direct impact shows from NC to Cape May.
Attached Thumbnails
image_1443647943049.jpg  

Last edited by DivingOtter; 09-30-2015 at 06:36 PM.
DivingOtter is offline  
Reply

Quick Reply
Message:
Options

By choosing to post the reply above you agree to the rules you agreed to when joining Sailnet.
Click Here to view those rules.

Register Now



In order to be able to post messages on the SailNet Community forums, you must first register.
Please enter your desired user name, your email address and other required details in the form below.
Please note: After entering 3 characters a list of Usernames already in use will appear and the list will disappear once a valid Username is entered.


User Name:
Password
Please enter a password for your user account. Note that passwords are case-sensitive.

Password:


Confirm Password:
Email Address
Please enter a valid email address for yourself.

Email Address:
OR

Log-in











Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Show Printable Version
Email this Page Email this Page



Posting Rules  
You may post new threads
You may post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On

 
For the best viewing experience please update your browser to Google Chrome