This blogger I have been following for about 2 years. Usually he is very accurate and he does not follow the "group think" of the weather channel, etc gang
Eastern PA Weather Authority: Joaquin's going out to sea | lehighvalleylive.com
One thing you can count on with the Eastern PA Weather Authority.
While the rest of the weather forecasting world is being conservative, Bobby Martrich and his crew will turn aggressive.
ECMWF = BOSS. Absolutely stunning that virtually every model may have had #Joaquin track wrong except for the Euro. #king #recrowned
— EPAWx Authority (@epawawx) October 1, 2015
There's a 75 percent chance Hurricane Joaquin will turn to the east and not hit the East Coast, Martrich said Thursday morning from Allentown after studying the latest run of the European model.
The model has a very good history in the tropics, he said.
"It was pretty much on its own," Martrich said. "Now we see things trending toward European model. ... That has been the best model for years."
Basically, Joaquin intensified too quickly and overtook the remnants of tropical storm Ida to its northeast, opening a hole for Joaquin to go east and out to sea, Martrich said.
That doesn't mean it won't impact the region as it goes by, Martrich said. Rip currents and winds up to 60 mph are likely along the Jersey coast. And there already was rain in the forecast.
But the likelihood of widespread destruction is limited.
"It's a lot better than 24 hours ago," he said.
Comment: It seems to me the longer it heads south and west and delays the turn North, its more time for the trough to push east and the inevitable track shifts eastward. Also there doesn't seem to be a blocking high over Bermuda anymore, so thats another factor shifting it offshore.