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post #51 of 88 Old 10-01-2015
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Re: TS Joaquin

Quote:
Originally Posted by MarkofSeaLife View Post
Levi Cowan has the best explained videos.
This one is from last night. He does one per day during an event.
Also check out his auto updated current storm page. Far better than NHC

Tropical Tidbits
Mark, thanks for posting this link. Now the differences in models make sense.

The local news geeks don't convey half the information in twice the air time.

Jim

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post #52 of 88 Old 10-01-2015
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EPWA - Joaquin's Going Out to Sea

This blogger I have been following for about 2 years. Usually he is very accurate and he does not follow the "group think" of the weather channel, etc gang.

Eastern PA Weather Authority: Joaquin's going out to sea | lehighvalleylive.com

One thing you can count on with the Eastern PA Weather Authority.

While the rest of the weather forecasting world is being conservative, Bobby Martrich and his crew will turn aggressive.


ECMWF = BOSS. Absolutely stunning that virtually every model may have had #Joaquin track wrong except for the Euro. #king #recrowned
— EPAWx Authority (@epawawx) October 1, 2015
There's a 75 percent chance Hurricane Joaquin will turn to the east and not hit the East Coast, Martrich said Thursday morning from Allentown after studying the latest run of the European model.


The model has a very good history in the tropics, he said.

"It was pretty much on its own," Martrich said. "Now we see things trending toward European model. ... That has been the best model for years."

Basically, Joaquin intensified too quickly and overtook the remnants of tropical storm Ida to its northeast, opening a hole for Joaquin to go east and out to sea, Martrich said.

That doesn't mean it won't impact the region as it goes by, Martrich said. Rip currents and winds up to 60 mph are likely along the Jersey coast. And there already was rain in the forecast.

But the likelihood of widespread destruction is limited.

"It's a lot better than 24 hours ago," he said.


Comment: It seems to me the longer it heads south and west and delays the turn North, its more time for the trough to push east and the inevitable track shifts eastward. Also there doesn't seem to be a blocking high over Bermuda anymore, so thats another factor shifting it offshore.
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Last edited by Sal Paradise; 10-01-2015 at 12:21 PM.
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post #53 of 88 Old 10-01-2015
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Re: TS Joaquin

The closer we get to land fall the more the models will start to agree.

I just checked the BoatUS Hurricane tracking site and it's moved the storm's track quite a bit to the east since this morning.

Instead of making landfall at the mouth of the Chesapeake, they have it coming ashore on the eastern tip of Long Island.

Now I'm going to try and not look at the forecasts anymore until tomorrow
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post #54 of 88 Old 10-01-2015
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Re: EPWA - Joaquin's Going Out to Sea

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sal Paradise View Post
This blogger I have been following for about 2 years. Usually he is very accurate and he does not follow the "group think" of the weather channel, etc gang.

Eastern PA Weather Authority: Joaquin's going out to sea | lehighvalleylive.com

One thing you can count on with the Eastern PA Weather Authority.

While the rest of the weather forecasting world is being conservative, Bobby Martrich and his crew will turn aggressive.


ECMWF = BOSS. Absolutely stunning that virtually every model may have had #Joaquin track wrong except for the Euro. #king #recrowned
— EPAWx Authority (@epawawx) October 1, 2015
There's a 75 percent chance Hurricane Joaquin will turn to the east and not hit the East Coast, Martrich said Thursday morning from Allentown after studying the latest run of the European model.


The model has a very good history in the tropics, he said.

"It was pretty much on its own," Martrich said. "Now we see things trending toward European model. ... That has been the best model for years."

Basically, Joaquin intensified too quickly and overtook the remnants of tropical storm Ida to its northeast, opening a hole for Joaquin to go east and out to sea, Martrich said.

That doesn't mean it won't impact the region as it goes by, Martrich said. Rip currents and winds up to 60 mph are likely along the Jersey coast. And there already was rain in the forecast.

But the likelihood of widespread destruction is limited.

"It's a lot better than 24 hours ago," he said.


Comment: It seems to me the longer it heads south and west and delays the turn North, its more time for the trough to push east and the inevitable track shifts eastward. Also there doesn't seem to be a blocking high over Bermuda anymore, so thats another factor shifting it offshore.
This looks promising but too early to know for sure of course. I'm faced with the decision of holing up in Oriental, NC with some oversized Danforths rated for a 50 footer (we have a Pearson 27) or docking at a different location as the boatyard where i would usually go is FULL. Decisions decisions... time to make a plan A & B.
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post #55 of 88 Old 10-01-2015
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Re: EPWA - Joaquin's Going Out to Sea

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sal Paradise View Post
This blogger I have been following for about 2 years. Usually he is very accurate and he does not follow the "group think" of the weather channel, etc gang.

Eastern PA Weather Authority: Joaquin's going out to sea | lehighvalleylive.com

One thing you can count on with the Eastern PA Weather Authority.

While the rest of the weather forecasting world is being conservative, Bobby Martrich and his crew will turn aggressive.


ECMWF = BOSS. Absolutely stunning that virtually every model may have had #Joaquin track wrong except for the Euro. #king #recrowned
— EPAWx Authority (@epawawx) October 1, 2015
There's a 75 percent chance Hurricane Joaquin will turn to the east and not hit the East Coast, Martrich said Thursday morning from Allentown after studying the latest run of the European model.


The model has a very good history in the tropics, he said.

"It was pretty much on its own," Martrich said. "Now we see things trending toward European model. ... That has been the best model for years."

Basically, Joaquin intensified too quickly and overtook the remnants of tropical storm Ida to its northeast, opening a hole for Joaquin to go east and out to sea, Martrich said.

That doesn't mean it won't impact the region as it goes by, Martrich said. Rip currents and winds up to 60 mph are likely along the Jersey coast. And there already was rain in the forecast.

But the likelihood of widespread destruction is limited.

"It's a lot better than 24 hours ago," he said.


Comment: It seems to me the longer it heads south and west and delays the turn North, its more time for the trough to push east and the inevitable track shifts eastward. Also there doesn't seem to be a blocking high over Bermuda anymore, so thats another factor shifting it offshore.
Well I do like this analysis. I don't like that the latest NOAA cone has it tracking right over my boat on Long Island. Hoping to see that keep shifting east in later runs. Already had to make a detour yesterday to get to the boat yard because of coastal flooding from our current weather system here: THE BIANKA LOG BLOG: HURRICANE JOAQUIN

Mike
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post #56 of 88 Old 10-01-2015
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Re: TS Joaquin

I don't like the current updates either... Now this thing is heading right across Long Island, and right at Narragansett Bay!


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post #57 of 88 Old 10-01-2015
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mbianka View Post

I don't like that the latest NOAA cone has it tracking right over my boat on Long Island.
"Right over"? Perfect place to be! The eye of the hurricane, gentle breeze, maybe no clouds, no rain.... Bliss!

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Re: TS Joaquin

Quote:
Originally Posted by MarkofSeaLife View Post
"Right over"? Perfect place to be! The eye of the hurricane, gentle breeze, maybe no clouds, no rain.... Bliss!

LOL! Just got this email from the Town Government:

"Dear Mooring Holder,

The National Weather Service is forecasting heavy rains, high winds and coastal flooding over the next several days, with the possibility of Tropical Storm Joaquin making landfall in the area early next week.

Because of this, we strongly recommend that all boat owners take necessary precautions to secure their vessels or remove them from the harbor in advance of this severe weather.
"

Going to tell them Mark of Sea Life says "No worries."

Mike
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post #59 of 88 Old 10-01-2015
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Re: TS Joaquin

The predictions could end up wrong anyway... I think I'll vote for "Hurricane Screw-It-Let's-Just-Trash-Florida-Again"



Daniel
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post #60 of 88 Old 10-01-2015
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Now a Category 4!!


And the airline won't let me change flights till the airport is "listed". What? Listed for sale???
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