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-   -   TS Joaquin (https://www.sailnet.com/forums/weather/221169-ts-joaquin.html)

DivingOtter 09-29-2015 10:13 AM

TS Joaquin
 
23 Attachment(s)
Im here in NJ and based in Island Heights on the Toms River. As luck would have it I'm going to a wedding in the Hamptons this weekend but leaving tomorrow afternoon. Currently looking like it may fall from Cape May to Atlantic Highlands if my predictions are correct. Either way, the only day to hunker the boat down is tomorrow morning . I'm torn between going overkill and going under kill since I won't be in the area to make changes. I'm going to add lines and fenders and remove both sails. Whats everyone else doing ?

mbianka 09-29-2015 12:33 PM

Re: TS Joaquin
 
I'm definitely keeping an eye on it here on Long Island. NOAA is so far making it sound like mainly a rain event. But, I something to keep an eye on in case I need to strip the sail off.

DivingOtter 09-29-2015 01:48 PM

23 Attachment(s)
Yeah. They are saying that it's going to impact Annapolis as of now. All I know is I said Sandy was going to hit our area and no one believed me. Then the day before my clients were ringing my phone off the hook trying to find a place to haul. Yeah, it's only a TS, but I'm going to be up in the Hamptons, so that means however I tie it up is how it's gonna be. I'm sure the marina will adjust lines of need be but I'm not relying on it. Some people are hauling out because they live out of state so their boat is a vacation home but at this point the owner said if you're going on the hard, you're staying there for the rest of the season. I sail as long as possible.

capta 09-29-2015 08:16 PM

Re: TS Joaquin
 
Before anyone gets too complacent and pays too much attention to the NWS/NHC and their prognostications, take a moment to ask Mark of Sea Life just what a forecast minor tropical depression can become in just an hour or so.
The one truly predictable thing about tropical cyclones is their unpredictability.

DivingOtter 09-29-2015 08:54 PM

23 Attachment(s)
Exactly. I learned that a low category storm can devastate my area. A few models show a few spaghetti models with one taking a late Sandy like hook back to the same area, while a few others show it headed back east. Things can change within hours as stated before. I guess all I can do is take a gamble on the best method to keep her safe. If not, my insurance is up to date.

RichH 09-29-2015 10:17 PM

Re: TS Joaquin
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by capta (Post 3055409)
Before anyone gets too complacent and pays too much attention to the NWS/NHC and their prognostications, take a moment to ask Mark of Sea Life just what a forecast minor tropical depression can become in just an hour or so.
The one truly predictable thing about tropical cyclones is their unpredictability.

I can agree with that. Was coming down the NE coast when "irene" popped up and was predicted to direct hit on Cape Cod. Being prudent I exited the Cape Cod area and headed for NYC only to get directly run-over by Irene with a 13-14ft. surge to add to the 'fun'.
In any large storm along the NE coast, Id add that one should never blindly run to known 'ports and anchorages' .... I got kicked out of (forced to leave) two North Shore of Long Island harbors when running from Irene, so much for New York 'hospitality'.

DivingOtter 09-29-2015 10:27 PM

23 Attachment(s)
My marina just called and said if I want to be on the haul list, I need to let them know by tomorrow morning or else that can't guarantee a haul. Oh well. She's staying wet then. I don't have spring lines on my boat. She's 24 foot so I'll add some springs around the winches, throw some fenders and balls over the side. Only have one neighbor to the starboard. I'll stagger the masts as well.

mbianka 09-29-2015 10:31 PM

Re: TS Joaquin
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by DivingOtter (Post 3053905)
Im here in NJ and based in Island Heights on the Toms River. As luck would have it I'm going to a wedding in the Hamptons this weekend but leaving tomorrow afternoon. Currently looking like it may fall from Cape May to Atlantic Highlands if my predictions are correct. Either way, the only day to hunker the boat down is tomorrow morning . I'm torn between going overkill and going under kill since I won't be in the area to make changes. I'm going to add lines and fenders and remove both sails. Whats everyone else doing ?

Looks like you should be able to make it back to New Jersey before Joaquin hits the area. If it hits. Latest I saw had it off Hatteras on Sunday. I would not stay too long in the Hamptons though. Gonna be very wet for the next couple of days out there anyway. Bring your rain gear. :)

eherlihy 09-29-2015 10:46 PM

Re: TS Joaquin
 
latest spaghetti is ALL over the map;
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storm...cks_latest.png

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/i...model_zoom.gif

I'm no expert, but I find it hard to believe that it will pull that sudden 120+ (from 240 to 000) hook to starboard.

[EDIT] NOTE that these images update automagically! Therefore, the 120 turn which I am so skeptical of (and which is still there as I type on 9-30-2015 at 09:30) will probably not be visible as the models are updated.

Ajax_MD 09-29-2015 10:50 PM

Re: TS Joaquin
 
WTF?? We can't do anything with that.


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