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post #261 of 319 Old 03-05-2019
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Re: Will climate change change your sailing plans

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Mike, this does not jive with the science. All you have to do is look at any of the recent climate assessments or IPCC reports comparing emissions scenarios to see that our decisions today impact the relatively near term future -- I plan on living at least a couple of decades more. Sure the changes become larger as you look at longer time horizons, but there are substantial differences in the next couple of decades between RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for instance.
Ill look them up. My recollection is that the latest report shows were already locked into 1.5C rise, and that is wildly optimistic. Even 2C is very optimistic, and there is much research to indicate were likely locked into 3C or more.

Regardless, we are locked into a certain temperature rise. There is nothing we can do short of significantly de-carbonizing the atmosphere, and no one knows how to do that. Even at 1.5C the impacts are real (they are real already).

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post #262 of 319 Old 03-05-2019
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Re: Will climate change change your sailing plans

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Ill look them up. My recollection is that the latest report shows were already locked into 1.5C rise, and that is wildly optimistic. Even 2C is very optimistic, and there is much research to indicate were likely locked into 3C or more.

Regardless, we are locked into a certain temperature rise. There is nothing we can do short of significantly de-carbonizing the atmosphere, and no one knows how to do that. Even at 1.5C the impacts are real (they are real already).
Full agreement here. You are right that we are locked into significant warming already -- avoiding 1.5 or 2C warming is wildly optimistic -- and those impacts are meaningful. My point was simply the difference between business as usual and lower emission pathways will reduce the necessary level of adaptation in our lifetime -- not just our grandchildren. You are of course correct that the bulk of the change comes later.
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post #263 of 319 Old 03-05-2019
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Re: Will climate change change your sailing plans

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The mathematical problem is that no one can show it will in fact keep warming to 2 instead of 3 degrees.
Just some quick thoughts:

The best available science has provided estimates for the emissions pathway necessary to keep anthropogenic warming below various thresholds -- we may disagree on the strength of the best available science, but it is what we have to go on. In one way I agree with you: if you look at the uncertainty distribution, we are more likely to be underestimating future warming than overestimating -- hence we cannot say that a particular path will be enough. Where it appears we disagree is I interpret that to mean we need to be more proactive, not less.
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post #264 of 319 Old 03-05-2019
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Re: Will climate change change your sailing plans

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.... Where it appears we disagree is I interpret that to mean we need to be more proactive, not less.
Proactive to adapt, for sure.

The house is burning. It needs 1000 gallons of water just to delay it's burning to the ground, it can't be stopped. We have 2 gallons and are proactively trying to put 4 gallons on it. That's the best analogy I can give of my point.

Better get out. Rather than spend all of our time and money on the extra water, spend it on an exit plan. Adapt.

Actually, I'm beginning to hear discussions on NPR that are trending toward my point and are less focused on being able to "stop" climate change. Stopping it and reversing it were mainstream Global Warming talking points just a handful of years ago. Most (who accept climate is changing) are coming to realize that isn't going to happen.


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post #265 of 319 Old 03-05-2019
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Re: Will climate change change your sailing plans

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Full agreement here. You are right that we are locked into significant warming already -- avoiding 1.5 or 2C warming is wildly optimistic -- and those impacts are meaningful. My point was simply the difference between business as usual and lower emission pathways will reduce the necessary level of adaptation in our lifetime -- not just our grandchildren. You are of course correct that the bulk of the change comes later.
Well, I guess it depends on how old each of us is today .

A good analogy is that of a braking train, or even better, a slowing container ship. If there is a pending collision, throwing the engines into reverse may not avert the hit, but its still worth the effort b/c it will make the impact less.

I disagree with the position that says were already doomed, so why bother do anything to reduce our current contribution of green house gasses. But I think its important to recognize that were going to collide (to carry on my analogy). How hard is still up to us.
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post #266 of 319 Old 03-05-2019
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Re: Will climate change change your sailing plans

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Well, I guess it depends on how old each of us is today .

A good analogy is that of a braking train, or even better, a slowing container ship. If there is a pending collision, throwing the engines into reverse may not avert the hit, but its still worth the effort b/c it will make the impact less.

I disagree with the position that says were already doomed, so why bother do anything to reduce our current contribution of green house gasses. But I think its important to recognize that were going to collide (to carry on my analogy). How hard is still up to us.

Mike, I don't mean to drag this out, since you and I are in clear agreement, but I think it is easier to see the difference with a shorter time axis. The scenarios have diverged by 2040 or so. From IPCC AR5...
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post #267 of 319 Old 03-05-2019
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Re: Will climate change change your sailing plans

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Proactive to adapt, for sure.

The house is burning. It needs 1000 gallons of water just to delay it's burning to the ground, it can't be stopped. We have 2 gallons and are proactively trying to put 4 gallons on it. That's the best analogy I can give of my point.

Better get out. Rather than spend all of our time and money on the extra water, spend it on an exit plan. Adapt.

Actually, I'm beginning to hear discussions on NPR that are trending toward my point and are less focused on being able to "stop" climate change. Stopping it and reversing it were mainstream Global Warming talking points just a handful of years ago. Most (who accept climate is changing) are coming to realize that isn't going to happen.
This isn't an either or. No we can't stop it. Yes we have to adapt. But still we can and should reduce it.

RCP8.5, which represents a relatively conservative business-as-usual pathway, predicts warming of ~5C by the end of the century. For comparison, that is roughly the same global mean temperature change as the difference between the last glacial period and this interglacial (which, by the way, happened over thousands of years, not a couple of centuries). In other words, that level of warming means a dramatically different world. Personally, I think it would be foolhardy to put all our eggs in the adaptation basket.
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post #268 of 319 Old 03-06-2019
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Re: Will climate change change your sailing plans

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Mike, I don't mean to drag this out, since you and I are in clear agreement, but I think it is easier to see the difference with a shorter time axis. The scenarios have diverged by 2040 or so. From IPCC AR5...
Actually, I was looking for this shorter term graph, but missed it. Thanks.

Like I say, its clear that we should start today to make changes (we should have started 30 years ago when serious alarm bell were already ringing). But I also think its important that we be honest and clear. We are locked into a certain amount of climate change consequence, and theres not much we can do about it in the short to medium term.

One of the things that irks me about so much of the environmental messaging is how they lay out the risks and predicted dangers, but then always put a pollyanna spin on the message in the end. People are left with this juvenile notion that if we all just change a few lightbulbs, or recycle some paper and plastic, that everything will be ok. And more importantly, none of us has to change our lifestyles or our consumption rates.

Bullcocky.

To achieve RCP4.5 requires significant changes on our part. And that means we must use less, and live smaller. But this is something few of us are even willing to contemplate, let alone act on. I see a lot of discussion, and a few focused success stories, but mostly I see business as usual here in the developed world most especially here in North America.

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post #269 of 319 Old 03-06-2019
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Re: Will climate change change your sailing plans

Even in the midst of our current orgy of full on carbon emissions, plastic pollution and consumerism - CPAC is screaming that " they" are going to take away all cows, cars, airplanes etc. So, if total capitulation to greed doesn't get us peace and harmony, then politeness and compromise aren't going to either. I think future generations will quite correctly judge this generation extremely harshly, on the level with the segregationists,exploiters and conspiracy nuts of the past, or at best as moral equivalents of " good Germans" prior to WW2. We see the disaster coming, but we don't do anything about it. Of course we wish we could politely convince everyone, but that isn't possible. We can probably drag most of them along. Minne is an example of a person slowly and incrementally agreeing. And he is right that this probably isn't a productive conversation here.

But - nationally, the sooner we realize that we have to just confront this issue, and all the subterfuge and deniers, the better off we will all be.
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post #270 of 319 Old 03-06-2019
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Re: Will climate change change your sailing plans

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Even in the midst of our current orgy of full on carbon emissions, plastic pollution and consumerism - CPAC is screaming that " they" are going to take away all cows, cars, airplanes etc. So, if total capitulation to greed doesn't get us peace and harmony, then politeness and compromise aren't going to either. I think future generations will quite correctly judge this generation extremely harshly, on the level with the segregationists,exploiters and conspiracy nuts of the past, or at best as moral equivalents of " good Germans" prior to WW2. We see the disaster coming, but we don't do anything about it. Of course we wish we could politely convince everyone, but that isn't possible. We can probably drag most of them along. Minne is an example of a person slowly and incrementally agreeing. And he is right that this probably isn't a productive conversation here.

But - nationally, the sooner we realize that we have to just confront this issue, and all the subterfuge and deniers, the better off we will all be.
Actually, blame your great grandparents and grandparents generation. They invented the car, the plane and other fossil fuel modes of transport. In the process they ripped out green transport like trolley bushes and trams and horse drawn carts and set up the current fossil fuel powered transportation system that we are stuck with today. They even switched from high density urban housing to suburbs meaning that the vast majority of the Western world needs to own or otherwise use fossil fuel powered transport just to go about their daily lives. And then they need to consume additional gobs of power to run their oversized homes whilst consuming, consuming, consuming because our great grandparents and grandparents invented mass marketing and consumerism, too.

We're just the meat in the sandwich. We really are. We can't even claim to be the first generation to be aware of the issue. This was known a century ago. And we can't claim to be the generation to fix it because we don't have the technology to do so. The only sure fire fix is to turn of the lights, reset average life expectancy to 30 and return to caves.

Unless "we" want to do that (I certainly don't) adapting is the only way to move forward until the appropriate technologies are (if ever) developed.

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