Will climate change change your sailing plans - Page 30 - SailNet Community
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post #291 of 319 Old 03-07-2019
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Re: Will climate change change your sailing plans

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However it was intended the discussion it brought up isnít about AGW itís about massive deficits, make work projects and the threat of Socialisim.

IMHO we need to do as much as possible as soon as possible about AGW and some other issues. We need to develop consensus to move forward where ever possible. That will require learned and wise leadership. Iím look hard but Iím not seeing it anywhere on the political spectrum.
Anti climate warning is not seen as a profit engine. It's conceived of by many as the reverse... a huge spending effort with not ROI no way to make profits... If you don't make profits it's like evil socialism or communism.
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Since Miami was mentioned as not having sunk, that’s true, it hasn’t sunk... not yet.
But as someone who has lived in Miami most of my almost 70 years, I can say unequivocally, there are areas that flood now at high tides that never did before.
Additionally, Miami Beach is spending roughly $500 million on (questionable) pumps and other flood control measures due to never seen before flooding. Miami recently passed a $400 million bond for (questionable) pumps in the Brickell area, again due to never seen before flooding (except in hurricanes).
Miami is especially vulnerable due to our porous limestone foundation. We get water from six sides, including from the ground up.
Clearly something is happening, that fact is not in question, and the folks who are much smarter than I am, and have gone to school much longer than I did (and yes, got better much better grades than I did), and who study this for a living, and who recreate these conditions with these outcomes in their labs, say this is primarily due to the effects of burning fossil fuels.
So who am I going to believe, these scientists, or the folks who think the earth is flat, the moon landing was filmed in Pete’s garage, and who climb in bed every night wearing cone shaped tinfoil hats so they can pick up cosmic signals?
My money is on the smart guys, it usually pays off.
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post #293 of 319 Old 03-08-2019
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Re: Will climate change change your sailing plans

Yes. Expect lots of wild swings in temperatures and humidity. Look for massive movements of people who are seeking food, water and a place to resettle. Expect wars in already hot zones such as the Gulf, the Indian subcontinent, etc. Floods and famine will likely make some places too dangerous to visit. We are already seeing this, but the latest and best estimates is that the level of change is speeding up. Your children and especially your grandchildren will be living in a dangerous and seemingly incoherent era. They will wonder what you did to fight against these trends. Enjoy.

One of the best things we can do is educate ourselves. If you don't mind the academic tone, you might find this website out of the London School of Economics interesting or maybe sobering:
https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/ab...lCode=resource

Finally, Chris Hayes and Joe Rogan have had some great conversations with David Wallace-Wells about his new book. Not for the faint of heart.
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post #294 of 319 Old 03-08-2019
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Re: Will climate change change your sailing plans

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....Folks can we return to talking about sailing?
Yes, let's do that, my friend. I think we're close enough, for a sailing forum, to understanding where each other is coming from. It's not as far apart as it appears at first. Drinks are on me, when I see you in the Caribe one day. I'm still going, AGW and all.

I'm off to start a new thread...... will new gun laws change your sailing plans.


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post #295 of 319 Old 03-08-2019
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Re: Will climate change change your sailing plans

Unless you cruise in the same area for a long time (multiple decades), itís going to be hard to separate weather from climate. One of my common questions to locals regarding weather is: ďIs this normal?Ē And usually they have no definite idea.

I think we can detect the impacts of climate change in the shifts of established ďgo-timesĒ and routing through books like Cornellís. Perhaps comparing pilot charts over time might reveal the changes as well. But as cruisers we care about whatís happening now, and out days or weeks. IOW, weather.

One of the more immediate impacts on international cruisers is likely the social/economic ones. The stiffening boarders, and increasing costs, that some face are likely more obvious. In some measure these changes are driving by climate change and the added stresses this brings to societies.

Mass migrations of people are part and parcel of this, and it is something weíll likely see more of as these stresses continue. This will make the easy flow of small cruising boats even harder. I believe Cornell suggests this is one reason for the apparent uptick in more regional cruising ó people are staying closer to home.
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post #296 of 319 Old 03-08-2019
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Re: Will climate change change your sailing plans

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Unless you cruise in the same area for a long time (multiple decades), itís going to be hard to separate weather from climate. One of my common questions to locals regarding weather is: ďIs this normal?Ē And usually they have no definite idea.

I think we can detect the impacts of climate change in the shifts of established ďgo-timesĒ and routing through books like Cornellís. Perhaps comparing pilot charts over time might reveal the changes as well. But as cruisers we care about whatís happening now, and out days or weeks. IOW, weather.

One of the more immediate impacts on international cruisers is likely the social/economic ones. The stiffening boarders, and increasing costs, that some face are likely more obvious. In some measure these changes are driving by climate change and the added stresses this brings to societies.

Mass migrations of people are part and parcel of this, and it is something weíll likely see more of as these stresses continue. This will make the easy flow of small cruising boats even harder. I believe Cornell suggests this is one reason for the apparent uptick in more regional cruising ó people are staying closer to home.
Good post Mike. I have been sailing since 1985 in LIS and cruises north and south. We definitely have a different weather pattern in the summer and shoulder seasons that we had in the late 80s where I sail.
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post #297 of 319 Old 03-09-2019 Thread Starter
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Re: Will climate change change your sailing plans

Excellent point but you do get some clues. Erosion patterns, coral, fish flora/fauna all talk to you about whatís been going on with an appropriate time scale.
Even in a shorter time frame you can make some reasonable judgments. If you see a once in hundred year event now occur year after year itís reasonable to assume a new normal is likely.
Then again we have benefits of the ďpilots ď. If month after month and year after year they donít match what the weather is your region has changed.
What I know is cruiser discussions of those doing the islands and going back and forth to Europe or the states repetitively reference how their view of things has changed. Yes, this is group think and annedotal so holds no scientific merit but itís interesting that you hear minor variations of the same thing from multiple voices. Particularly true for the shoulder seasons when people do passages.
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post #298 of 319 Old 03-12-2019
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Re: Will climate change change your sailing plans

This has been an absolutely fascinating thread especially since I'm reading David Wallace's new book. I highly recommend it but it's not for faint of heart!

The OP inquired whether CC is affecting our sailing plans. Here in the PNW, the fires that surround us all summer make our typical cruising time unbearable now. Rather than cruising in July-September, we're now contemplating a much earlier time. We'll get rain and gray, not not the smoke.

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post #299 of 319 Old 03-12-2019
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Re: Will climate change change your sailing plans

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The OP inquired whether CC is affecting our sailing plans. Here in the PNW, the fires that surround us all summer make our typical cruising time unbearable now. Rather than cruising in July-September, we're now contemplating a much earlier time. We'll get rain and gray, not not the smoke.
These fires affected us in Newfoundland as well. Weeks of crimson red sunsets, dimmer more diffuse skies during the day, and a noticeable diminishment in output from my solar panels.

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post #300 of 319 Old 03-13-2019
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Re: Will climate change change your sailing plans

Mike,

You should have been there a few years ago when they had the big fires in Labrador and had to evacuate Lab City. The smoke was so dense in our town on Bonavista Bay I could not see the headlands one mile away.

Thatís at distance of about 500 miles, give it take.

Not one peep on US media.
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