Will climate change change your sailing plans - Page 32 - SailNet Community
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post #311 of 319 Old 03-14-2019
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Re: Will climate change change your sailing plans

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One dark and stormy night I was getting kicked in the teeth pretty good. The wx report said “SW 20-25.” However, when they got to the “current conditions”!it was “Cape Bonavista, 25 with gust to 32.” I’ve been assured by a retired local meteorologist that if it was 25-32 at Bonavista it was substantially more 15 miles off where I was.

Anyway, I ticked me off that they were still propogaring a weather forecast that did not match their own observations. Would have been better if they said “our current forecast of 25-25 SW is clearly wrong, expect substantially more wind.”
This is reminiscent of my “welcome” to Newfoundland. We had a solid forecast for nothing more than SW 20 as we arrived across the Gulf of St. Lawrence. WX was still proclaiming “SW20” even while we were getting the snot kicked out of is as we fought our way into the Bay of Islands. Winds were a sustained 40 coming from the WNW with gusts to ‘holy crap!’ Seas were steep 3 to 4 metres. . Took us six hours to cover those last 12 miles.

My partner says it was NFLD’s way of seeing if we were worthy.

The common wisdom from fishers in our area is to add at least 10 to any Environment forecast, and assume the direction will be different.

If this is improved forecasting, I wonder what it used to be like
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post #312 of 319 Old 03-14-2019 Thread Starter
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Re: Will climate change change your sailing plans

Day after day the gribs show one vane or occasional two between the islands but you go and it’s 5-10 kts higher. That’s not hyper local phenomenon like compression zones at the ends nor compression due to valleys. The field of the grib depends on the program used. All too often that field is too large.
When a good meteorologist gives you a forecast they integrate more information, interprete multiple sources including gribs and have a degree of intuition a computer doesn’t have. Their field of interest is much more likely to focus on where you want to go.
Look at a grib then a report from a weather router of your choice. Both may be wrong but at leadt the forecasters report is more focused and in my experience to date more likely to be congruent to the reality I face.
I understand no human chess player can beat Merlin but the degree of granularity of gribs leaves much to be desired.
You may be hypertensive for years before your kidneys fail or you have your first heart attack or stroke. You may be dementing for years before you can no longer use the remote control. Pseudo acute changes occur in most all phenomena.
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post #313 of 319 Old 03-15-2019
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Re: Will climate change change your sailing plans

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Those GRIB flying arrows are pretty useless. I use an app where I can see the actual forecast wind, that gives a dramatically different view. It’s an iPhone app called WeatherTrack. You download the GRIB, look at a parameter, say Wind, but then set a point where you can get the Meteoplus forecast. That is MUCH more useful. And it gives you CAPE, which gives some indication of squall likelihood.

I also look at BouyWeather. That has the standard forecast but also something they call a LOLA forecast. The LOLA wind is pretty good, maybe a bit conservative. The LOLA wave is IMHO very conservative, I use the traditional forecast for wave height. WeatherTrack does not give wave period but Buoyweather does, I find that important.
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Re: Will climate change change your sailing plans

If you go into the forecasting options in WeatherTracker, wave period is an option, depending on which forecast model you've chosen to use. I'm a fan.


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Re: Will climate change change your sailing plans

Nice looking app Howard. Thanks. I’ve used Windy and Passage Weather, along with the GRIB function in iNavx. Windy lets you view a few different models. This one looks a lot better. I like how it can be used offline. Thanks for the tip.

I try and access current reporting from weather stations and buoys when available. These are usually good ways to calibrate the forecasts — at least in the immediate period.

I also like to look at the raw forecast charts (like this: https://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/526_100.gif) to see large scale predictions.

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post #316 of 319 Old 03-15-2019
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Re: Will climate change change your sailing plans

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If you go into the forecasting options in WeatherTracker, wave period is an option, depending on which forecast model you've chosen to use. I'm a fan.
Thanks for pointing that out, it’s been a while since I checked that setting, it appears more is available.

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Re: Will climate change change your sailing plans

Whole heartedly agree about the arrows. Like you use multiple sources. Gribs are an easy way to see general trends when you scroll through them. We are visual animals and that presentation makes it easy for my bride and others when discussing the next few days. Prefer the arrows to the colors although it’s the same information.
I do like looking at the entire mainland US, the entire North Atlantic and then the area I’m in with gribs. Again it’s an easy way to see trends. But for a forecast for a specific transit found it wise to supplement with other sources and presentations. On a visceral level you can look at the millibars and distance between them and predict the gribs even though you aren’t a computor. What I don’t know is the nuances and know what I don’t know so continue to have respect for the professionals.

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Re: Will climate change change your sailing plans

Btw don’t think it makes any difference which you use ( Windy, passage weather etc.) to get gribs. Do think it does matter which model is the substrate for the presentation. Worth while to look at different modeling strategies in whatever program you like.
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post #319 of 319 Old 03-15-2019
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I like the big picture too.
The cause..and what is coming..or changing.
Not the dog barking in your yard...but where the pack is...
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