Will climate change change your sailing plans - SailNet Community
 232Likes
Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools
post #1 of 319 Old 09-27-2018 Thread Starter
Senior Member
 
outbound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: new england
Posts: 5,717
Thanks: 132
Thanked 167 Times in 161 Posts
Rep Power: 7
 
Will climate change change your sailing plans

Over the last few years weather events at the turn of the seasons has had major impact on my sailing. From missing the window for safe passage to the eastern Caribbean last fall to lying hove to for a full week to allow a system to clear the spring before on return.
The defined hurricane season seems to no longer exist. Nor does the defined hurricane zone. Although I’m used to the New England attitude “if you don’t like the weather wait a minute” even squall behavior seems different. I was used to line squalls passing through with a few bad hours not to the days you experience now.
This is starting to change my thinking. I find myself obsessing about the west coast of Africa. I have increasingly low confidence that GRIBs, 500mb, or any model will predict the weather in my immediate vicinity. I have increasing trepidation which has caused me to change my behavior. In the past the boat was set up two different ways. Coastal or offshore. Now unless it’s a day sail she’s in offshore mode.
I wonder if others have changed the way they think and act in response to the weather impacts of climate change?

s/v Hippocampus
Outbound 46
outbound is offline  
Sponsored Links
Advertisement
 
post #2 of 319 Old 09-27-2018
Old soul
 
MikeOReilly's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Wherever I am
Posts: 3,705
Thanks: 246
Thanked 180 Times in 168 Posts
Rep Power: 10
 
Re: Will climate change change your sailing plans

It’s a question I’ve pondered. To be honest, I haven’t cruising long enough to know anything but what I’ve experienced. I do wonder about the reliability of various historic-based tools like pilot charts or sailing directions. Blue water routes (and timing) seem less certain now.

Seasons up north (where I’ve spent my entire sailing life so far) actually seem to be extending, but established seasonal weather patterns appear to be getting more erratic.

So far, I can’t say any of this has directly changed my cruising pattern, but it certainly makes me view traditional knowledge tools far more skeptically.

Why go fast, when you can go slow.
BLOG:
To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
MikeOReilly is online now  
post #3 of 319 Old 09-27-2018
Master Mariner
 
capta's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: somewhere south of civilization
Posts: 6,795
Thanks: 134
Thanked 359 Times in 347 Posts
Rep Power: 8
 
Re: Will climate change change your sailing plans

It was June too soon. July standby. August come they must. September remember and October all over was the mantra for the hurricane season when I worked in the Caribbean in the late 70's and early 80's. It had been for several hundred years. Even when we knew there was a storm headed our way, we did not know if it would hit us directly, until it hit the windward side of the island.
Then Klaus slammed into St Thomas in November 1984 and it seemed things were changing even before someone coined the phrase climate change.
However, on the other side of the coin, I now have exactly the same information available to me that the weather forecasters do, from the web. So, as long as I have an internet connection, I have the information I need to make an informed forecast of my own, giving me a freedom to cruise around during hurricane season I never had before.
The last time I set sail for the Caribbean from Newport, I did so on October 8th, more than a month before it is now recommended to do so, and I had the best trip I have ever had between Newport and Bermuda. I was confident in doing this because of the weather information available to me on the internet.
It isn't about day to day forecasting for me but in the big picture. Three to five days of travel with a reasonable certainty that I won't have any unexpected weather systems is a huge improvement over my past. And though I have yet to use the phone/grib thing, I'm confident that when I do it will be an immense improvement over the old WWV/WWVH 5 minutes of weather info updated every 12 hours.
I guess that leaves me better off now than in the past, even with climate change in the mix.
chef2sail and outbound like this.

"Any idiot can make a boat go; it takes a sailor to stop one." Spike Africa aboard the schooner Wanderer in Sausalito, Ca. 1964.
“Believe me, my young friend, there is nothing - absolutely nothing - half so much worth doing as simply messing about in boats.” ― Kenneth Grahame, The Wind in the Willows

To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.

facebook.com/svskippingstone
capta is online now  
 
post #4 of 319 Old 09-27-2018
Senior Member
 
hpeer's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Onboard
Posts: 1,134
Thanks: 12
Thanked 32 Times in 32 Posts
Rep Power: 14
 
Re: Will climate change change your sailing plans

Like Mike above I’m relatively new to sailing. I’s not hard to listen to folks with extensive outdoor experience, especially in the North, to know things are changing.

I was reading a story from the 1890’s of folks going North through the Straights of Bell Isle in late June and being delayed due to the ice pack, which was normal and expected. I’ve personally sailed those same waters at that same time and met the odd iceberg, which is the current normal.

In his Introduction to his new improved pilot chats Cornell cites climate change as one of the reason the charts need updating. And that was a few years ago.

IMHO it’s hard to blame any one storm on CC. But the long term statistical data (ie ice data) along with personal historic knowledge of the North makes a most compelling story.

33' Brewer, Murray 33, steel cutter
44' Pape, Steelmaid, cc steel cutter
hpeer is online now  
post #5 of 319 Old 09-28-2018 Thread Starter
Senior Member
 
outbound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: new england
Posts: 5,717
Thanks: 132
Thanked 167 Times in 161 Posts
Rep Power: 7
 
Re: Will climate change change your sailing plans

Capta I’ve done the weather briefings, listened and read Lee Chesneau, subscripted to Chris, get my NOAA, and do my own collection of data. I’m convinced any predictions more than 5 days out are a crap shoot. I’ve experienced vicious winds when all predictions suggested benign conditions. Predictions are excellent for a large field of view but not as good for hyper local conditions. Believe this is true both for coastal and off shore. Saw high 40s inside L.I. Sound in face of 10-15 predicted. Predictions are excellent for a day sail but not for a passage as you know.
However, in the past seasonal assumptions tended to hold with few outliers. Perhaps there’s no increase in named storms but intensity and duration seemed to have increased. My impression is inspite of of advances in prediction technology and ability to get daily emails and bidaily SSB chats you are much more uncertain as to what you will face on any long coastal jump or a ocean passage. I still head out. I do so with more trepidation. How about you? Do you think this is making for less people engaging in ocean sailing?

s/v Hippocampus
Outbound 46
outbound is offline  
post #6 of 319 Old 09-28-2018
Master Mariner
 
capta's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: somewhere south of civilization
Posts: 6,795
Thanks: 134
Thanked 359 Times in 347 Posts
Rep Power: 8
 
Re: Will climate change change your sailing plans

Quote:
Originally Posted by outbound View Post
. How about you? Do you think this is making for less people engaging in ocean sailing?
I can't speak for others with any accuracy, but my feeling is that way too many people rely on weather forecasts and routers instead of taking the information available and forecasting for themselves.
A prime example is Brett, last year. It was headed south of Grenada and with a double, very strong Atlantic High rather far south in the Atlantic, there was no likelihood that the storm could slide north.
When we arrived in Tyrrel Bay on Carriacou all but a handful of the 100+ boats moored there had fled to the safety of the lagoon. After setting our anchor, a local came over and asked us if we wanted help moving into the lagoon. I said no thank you, confident that since the storm was passing to our south, there was no possibility that we would get westerlies, the only wind which would make that anchorage dangerous.
Brett did exactly as expected, remaining south of Grenada and dashed itself to death on the mountains of Venezuela, giving us no more than 40 knots of wind from the east.
It just wasn't all that difficult to see what Brett would/could do if one had a very basic understanding of hurricanes and weather in general.
But weather services have a responsibility to issue warnings when the situation meets certain criteria, not even on what the forecasters themselves believe will happen, so those who rely on those warnings alone can end up either unprepared for an unforeseen weather change or prepared for something that is so unlikely as to be impossible, not necessarily a bad thing, but a lot of hard, unnecessary and possibly expensive effort.
I think Mark's (Sealife) tale of his voyage to Europe last year is a good example of using the real-time weather information available, rather than forecasts, to make a safe crossing.

"Any idiot can make a boat go; it takes a sailor to stop one." Spike Africa aboard the schooner Wanderer in Sausalito, Ca. 1964.
“Believe me, my young friend, there is nothing - absolutely nothing - half so much worth doing as simply messing about in boats.” ― Kenneth Grahame, The Wind in the Willows

To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.

facebook.com/svskippingstone
capta is online now  
post #7 of 319 Old 09-28-2018 Thread Starter
Senior Member
 
outbound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: new england
Posts: 5,717
Thanks: 132
Thanked 167 Times in 161 Posts
Rep Power: 7
 
Re: Will climate change change your sailing plans

Capta we do that as well and think most do. Have gone to the right side of a system be it depression or invest or TS figuring regardless of deviation from predicted tract I want to be on the side with less wind and more options. Yes, I agree predictors are constrained by certain “rules” and you should do your own homework. Still, I’m focused not on available tools at your disposal but rather the weather itself and the apparent breakdown of the prior pre CC assumptions. Biggest is having some reliance that there’s a period after hurricane season and before winter gales that is fairly safe to set sail for the Caribbean. Or if in subtropical US there’s a defined thunderstorm season. Or if in northern New England/ southern eastern Canada there’s a period you will see less fog or cold rain. Or.....fill in the blank.

s/v Hippocampus
Outbound 46
outbound is offline  
post #8 of 319 Old 09-28-2018 Thread Starter
Senior Member
 
outbound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: new england
Posts: 5,717
Thanks: 132
Thanked 167 Times in 161 Posts
Rep Power: 7
 
Re: Will climate change change your sailing plans

Capta should mention I’m pretty old school. Have a metereoman recording barometer. Have frequently reefed in response to that not any prediction. To date it hasn’t let me down.
Oh. And still look at the clouds.

s/v Hippocampus
Outbound 46
outbound is offline  
post #9 of 319 Old 09-28-2018
Master Mariner
 
capta's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: somewhere south of civilization
Posts: 6,795
Thanks: 134
Thanked 359 Times in 347 Posts
Rep Power: 8
 
Re: Will climate change change your sailing plans

Quote:
Originally Posted by outbound View Post
Biggest is having some reliance that there’s a period after hurricane season and before winter gales that is fairly safe to set sail for the Caribbean. .
For southbound, the US to the Carib, my feeling is that it's not about a "safer period" but more info that allows an earlier voyage, avoiding the harsher weather of the later season, early October versus late November.
Northbound, I'd guess it's more of a gamble, but I've done a lot of hurricane season deliveries, long before the internet, and got away with them all. It just seems easier now with the weather info available.
The rest I really can't comment about as I haven't had to give it any thought or pay attention to the seasonal weather outside of the tropics in a long time.

"Any idiot can make a boat go; it takes a sailor to stop one." Spike Africa aboard the schooner Wanderer in Sausalito, Ca. 1964.
“Believe me, my young friend, there is nothing - absolutely nothing - half so much worth doing as simply messing about in boats.” ― Kenneth Grahame, The Wind in the Willows

To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.

facebook.com/svskippingstone
capta is online now  
post #10 of 319 Old 09-28-2018
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Narragansett Bay
Posts: 18,873
Thanks: 82
Thanked 528 Times in 505 Posts
Rep Power: 11
   
Re: Will climate change change your sailing plans

The bigger boat to entertain guests is my climate change move. A beach house is at too much risk. It's not a question of when the ocean level rises and floods, it's when every bank and insurance company begin to believe it will happen. When funding and insurance become unavailable, the values will disappear. This will happen long in advance of the actual event.

Society is being idiotic in not trying to adapt or relocate our shoreline. I'm no sky is falling tree hugger. The shoreline was not always there and won't always be there. I also don't believe there is much any of us can do about it. Spend money on adapting, not useless things there is zero evidence will matter.
CVAT and Spidersloveboats like this.


To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.

Jeanneau 54DS

In the harsh marine environment, something is always in need of repair. Margaritas fix everything.
Minnewaska is offline  
Reply

Quick Reply
Message:
Options

By choosing to post the reply above you agree to the rules you agreed to when joining Sailnet.
Click Here to view those rules.

Register Now



In order to be able to post messages on the SailNet Community forums, you must first register.
Please enter your desired user name, your email address and other required details in the form below.
Please note: After entering 3 characters a list of Usernames already in use will appear and the list will disappear once a valid Username is entered.


User Name:
Password
Please enter a password for your user account. Note that passwords are case-sensitive.

Password:


Confirm Password:
Email Address
Please enter a valid email address for yourself.

Email Address:
OR

Log-in











Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Show Printable Version
Email this Page Email this Page



Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Climate change? Classic30 General Discussion (sailing related) 12 10-25-2012 05:58 PM
Climate change breaks the ice: 3-man sailboat makes record voyage - Los Angeles Times NewsReader News Feeds 0 09-04-2012 05:20 AM
Technology, climate change spark race to claim Arctic resources (USA Today) NewsReader News Feeds 0 03-24-2007 02:15 PM

Posting Rules  
You may post new threads
You may post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On

 
For the best viewing experience please update your browser to Google Chrome