Dorian - SailNet Community
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Dorian

From what ive seen forecasted, it will break up after hitting the DR.
Hopefully not build.
Barbados on watch.
Capta is in that area
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Re: Dorian

The waves are marching through. Already up to invest 99. September should be interesting. Just hope they continue to be north of Grenada when they organize and upper level shear remains strong.
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Re: Dorian

Never take them for granted. However, Tropical Tidbits puts odds on it falling apart after crossing the Leewards somewhere. No doubt messy, but fairly small. Hopefully, he's right, but he says small storm intensity is hard to predict.

The games have begun. September is always the top of the bell curve.
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Re: Dorian

Models are all over the place.
Euro has it going thru the mona, hitting t and c, san salvador, top of eleuthera, abaco, grand bahama and florida just below canaveral.
Another has it breaking up after hitting the dr.

Im in george town so it has my attention
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Re: Dorian

remember irmariageddon began as did this one.. keep ready hold fast and duck. it doesnot hurt to prep for maximum intensity than anticipated however it does hurt to be unready for impending doom.
good luck to allayez in the zone.
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Chris thinks Barbados st Vincent st Lucia. Squalls 30-50kts in Grenada.

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Re: Dorian

The different models are closer in agreement now.
Windwards are known.. its there
What happens after impact with pr and dr is still iffy.
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Re: Dorian

Interesting take on this hurricane season from noonsite. Opinion is September will be worse than usual due to being an off El Niņo year.

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Re: Dorian

September will be active, it always is.

I wonder what they mean by "usual". I don't have Sept data handy, but in the last 20 years, named storms have ranged from 8 in both 1997 and 2014 to 28 in 2005. Nothing all that usual from year to year. A regression line is heading higher, for sure, with high deviation from norm, year to year.


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Re: Dorian

Both incidence and severity are treading higher with out a doubt. At present less concerned about Dorian and more concerned about Erin. Less concerned about the boat and more concerned about the house. We just completed building a new house. Landscaping not completed. Have erosion concerns.

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