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post #11 of 37 Old 09-09-2019
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Re: 'Nother One

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It's September and they're coming thick and fast.

Tropicaltidbits.com has most of the Invests on its storms page.
Just started to read/listen to the book SUDDEN SEA about the 1938 Hurricane that hit Long Island and New England and created the Shinecock Inlet around September 21. Keeping a weather eye on the tropics myself. Tropical Tidbits is great for understanding the storms and the possibilities.
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post #12 of 37 Old 09-09-2019
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Re: 'Nother One

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Originally Posted by capta View Post
....I think one would have to be pretty inattentive to get hit by a storm in the Windwards or Leewards in these days of satellite/internet weather, as long as you are prepared to move your boat a hundred miles or so north or south........
Glad it's worked for you. However, there have been storms that gave virtually no notice, they don't all march across the Atlantic first. The three day cone is 100 miles wide and still only 66% statistically likely. If you were at one side and could get further away, that might make sense. However, even that close, the seas must be getting stirred, you better not have a mechanical failure and wherever you're going better not be full.

I think I'll pass, even though most will win the draw. The Caribbean is a big place. I'm not sure I see it as much more scientific than that.


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post #13 of 37 Old 09-09-2019
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Re: 'Nother One

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I think one would have to be pretty inattentive to get hit by a storm in the Windwards or Leewards in these days of satellite/internet weather, as long as you are prepared to move your boat a hundred miles or so north or south.
I'm not sure about that. We were in Grenada in 2010 when a hurricane (Tomas) was making a direct approach to Grenada. The forecasts and models were all in agreement that Grenada would be the island it hit. A day or so before it was to hit, all the charter boats, and many cruising boats ran up to St. Lucia (we holed up in Grenada). Then, the hurricane turned North and hit St. Lucia.

While I think it is less risky to run South for a hurricane in the EC, I think it is risky to run North - particularly in the Windwards.

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Re: 'Nother One

To the south is also the weaker side. Just makes sense
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post #15 of 37 Old 09-09-2019
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Re: 'Nother One

I had a summer on a hurricane mooring in St Martin.

One of my more stupid things I've done.

Hurricane Gonzalo popped up.

I found out you can't run south from the north end of the Caribbean because most of the hurricanes are going North East and you'd be crossing in front of it.
You can only run south when it's already tracking north of you.
But the buggers wriggle so much you really - OK let me cross out 'you' - I really can't work out where the hell they're going and I get this frozen with indecision thing. You'all being better sailors (etc) than me wouldn't have these problems...

So I stayed on board and rode out this fast developing hurricane and got to experience an eye wall. Sonethibg I will never, ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever do again.

Your bravado flies out of the seat of your pants when people die just a few hundred meters from you.




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post #16 of 37 Old 09-09-2019
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Re: 'Nother One

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I'm not sure about that. We were in Grenada in 2010 when a hurricane (Tomas) was making a direct approach to Grenada. The forecasts and models were all in agreement that Grenada would be the island it hit. A day or so before it was to hit, all the charter boats, and many cruising boats ran up to St. Lucia (we holed up in Grenada). Then, the hurricane turned North and hit St. Lucia.

While I think it is less risky to run South for a hurricane in the EC, I think it is risky to run North - particularly in the Windwards.

Mark
I don't disagree that whenever possible it is probably better to run south, but I still maintain that there is enough information available so that one shouldn't make that mistake. As you say, perhaps I've been lucky, but if so, it's been a very long lucky streak.
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post #17 of 37 Old 09-09-2019
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Re: 'Nother One

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Originally Posted by MarkofSeaLife View Post
I had a summer on a hurricane mooring in St Martin.


So I stayed on board and rode out this fast developing hurricane and got to experience an eye wall. Sonethibg I will never, ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever do again.

Your bravado flies out of the seat of your pants when people die just a few hundred meters from you.

Mark
I had planed to ride out Hurricane Sandy on the mooring. But, I could not get back to the dingy dock because the roads to the marina were flooded out way before it hit. After the storm I found my boat 1000 feet from where I left it still attached to the mooring. Storm surge lifted it and moved it across the harbor. A year or two later I rode out a Nor'Easter on board. Won't do that again. The 30 to 40 knot winds and higher gusts convinced me there would be nothing I could do if things started breaking bad while on board.

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post #18 of 37 Old 09-09-2019
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Re: 'Nother One

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I don't disagree that whenever possible it is probably better to run south, but I still maintain that there is enough information available so that one shouldn't make that mistake. As you say, perhaps I've been lucky, but if so, it's been a very long lucky streak.
Hundreds of boats did make that mistake, including all of the charter boats that were brought to Grenada to be safe for the summer. The forecast was to hit Grenada, with Trinidad even being a potential target. Nobody was talking about St. Lucia, but that is where it hit.

I agree that there is enough timely information to very early run far away from a hurricane towards a known low-risk area, but disagree that one can count on simply moving 100nm in a predicted direction a couple of days before impact.

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post #19 of 37 Old 09-09-2019 Thread Starter
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Re: 'Nother One

There is a lot that goes into a plan to move.
Its fluid and your 'go' time is such.
Err on maybe being scared and jumping early rather than late.
Late takes away your options. That funnel tightens quickly. You are resigned to the roll at a craps table...or something else as scary...

We have quakes that give almost zero notice, tornados that might give 1 hr notice, floods that have several days notice.
Risks

We have..tools. use them as well as you are able.
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post #20 of 37 Old 09-09-2019
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Re: 'Nother One

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Gfs would probably take me out.
Will watch and plan to move south end of this week, weekend
Good luck out there, don't take any chances!!!
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