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post #1 of 37 Old 6 Days Ago Thread Starter
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'Nother One

Gfs shows it developing early next week, coming in at dominica, over top of puerto rico...then bigger.
Euro shows later and smaller development going north of leewards.
Much disagreement this far out.

Gfs would probably take me out.
Will watch and plan to move south end of this week, weekend
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post #2 of 37 Old 6 Days Ago
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Re: 'Nother One

What source are you looking at that shows these undeveloped storms past a couple of days? I'm seeing 20-30% of development through 5 days on the NHC site and a tracking bubble (difference from a hurricane cone) that doesn't say strength.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

Hope all make out well, I have a hard time understanding why anyone would want to be cruising down there during cane season. Even if you move on this data, the storm can redirect to your new destination or have another pop up. If you move south out of the way of the first, you could be hit by the second. All just seems like a roulette wheel, little more.
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Re: 'Nother One

Shown on windy.
My predictwind doesnt go out that far
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Re: 'Nother One

Quote:
Originally Posted by RegisteredUser View Post
Shown on windy.
My predictwind doesnt go out that far
I see it now. First starts to appear 8 days out, just north of the Bahamas. That's nearly fiction, as you know. Could happen, hard to use for decisioning.


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Re: 'Nother One

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Originally Posted by Minnewaska View Post
I see it now. First starts to appear 8 days out, just north of the Bahamas. That's nearly fiction, as you know. Could happen, hard to use for decisioning.
When the models start to agree....
Have your plan/s inhand before they agree

...now look at the gfs model on windy...
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Re: 'Nother One

Looking like it will hit Alabama to me...

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Re: 'Nother One

Quote:
Originally Posted by Minnewaska View Post
I have a hard time understanding why anyone would want to be cruising down there during cane season.
Well, if one really enjoys uncrowded anchorages and quiet bays, the only time you are going to get that is in the summer. There are quite a few eastern side anchorages that are completely unavailable at any other time, so cruising in the summer is the only time to go.
Perhaps, if you had been down here before satellite/internet weather, when you knew a storm was coming more or less toward where you were but only that it was going to strike you directly when it hit the other side of the island, you would consider sailing in the hurricane season today as safe as sailing anywhere. After all, you can hole up in Grenada and an Ivan can still ruin your week.
I think one would have to be pretty inattentive to get hit by a storm in the Windwards or Leewards in these days of satellite/internet weather, as long as you are prepared to move your boat a hundred miles or so north or south. It's always a mistake to get lulled into complacency like Mark did in St. Martin, and then get hit by a "not yet developed" tropical storm, which turns out to be a hurricane.
However, especially after the Dorian fiasco, I think we can all agree that if you have to rely on the weather forecasters, then perhaps cruising the eastern Caribbean in the summer isn't for you.
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Re: 'Nother One

Passageweather is showing it hitting dominica/guadeloupe next monday
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Re: 'Nother One

Oh boy.
Are you sure you are all rested up enough to begin this all over again?

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Re: 'Nother One

It's September and they're coming thick and fast.

Tropicaltidbits.com has most of the Invests on its storms page.

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