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post #11 of 79 Old 1 Week Ago
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Re: More active hurricane season predicted

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Originally Posted by hpeer View Post
Like Ken we are sailing back June 11, weather permitting.

We have 2 issues. If this was a “normal” year We would leave the boat in Grenada and spend the season in Canada. Being we can’t go to Canada we could stay in the islands and move South for a storm. However with the virus we may want to move South only to find Grenada and Trinidad closed.

We won’t reliably be able to get to our Canadian cabin because of the virus lockdowns. We don’t have another place to stay in the USA. So we will take our house with us to the USA. Then dodge hurricanes there.

That seems like the plan with the most flexibility and reliability of occurring.
It would have been nice to meet up. Perhaps another year.
Good luck on your passage and may the east coast storms miss you.

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post #12 of 79 Old 1 Week Ago Thread Starter
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Re: More active hurricane season predicted

Looking at options seems we’re stuck with leaving boat in St.Lucia. Thought about relaunching and going to Clarke’s. But feel travel restrictions/risks, what’s involved in relaunching/redecommissioning makes this unappealing. Thought about heading to western Caribbean and explored details but bailed on that as well. So will just wait it out. Although things are opening up yards are behind in their schedules. Still a fair number of boats on the hard and wouldn’t be surprised if some don’t launch. Probably in response to the downstream economic conditions from covid. An early season storm will have them spinning.
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post #13 of 79 Old 1 Week Ago
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Re: More active hurricane season predicted

Covid 19 and the resulting political/travel instability has become a greater concern than hurricanes.

Example: As hundreds of boats wait to head down to Trinidad, the Trinidad population of 1.4 million mostly poor people who’ve now gone almost three months without a paycheck remain in lockdown with no end in sight, even though there are presently zero active cases of covid on the islands of Trinidad and Tobago. Zero active cases... borders and businesses remain closed, no flights in or out. With this kind of instability, there’s no way most people should trust leaving a valuable asset down there.

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post #14 of 79 Old 1 Week Ago
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Re: More active hurricane season predicted

Capta,

Yes, a missed opportunity. Perhaps this winter season? IF we can come back!

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Re: More active hurricane season predicted

Ken111,

Yes this is a problem, one I have been foreseeing for a while.

Imagine you are the PM of one of these islands. You have shut down and “beaten” the virus. Cheers all around, good job. Now what?

The PM is painted into a corner. If he opens in any commercially viable way the virus will return. If the virus returns the people will ask “If the virus was inevitable why did we lock down?”

If he does not commercially open the tax base disappears.

The worst case is maybe the most likely, a open, close, open, close ..... scenario.

I’m not liking the odds. This will hurt.
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post #16 of 79 Old 1 Week Ago
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Re: More active hurricane season predicted

Here on the East coast of Florida - they arent too accurate with numbers at times - but one thing that seems consistent the last 5 years - when they do head our way they are bigger and stronger - we got very lucky last year with Dorian ( not the Bahamas though) I expect if we get hit with one it will be strong - the water temps are just staying high - lots of fuel for a hurricane.
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Re: More active hurricane season predicted

There’s been a endless argument due to not differentiating climate from weather. Still what goes on with El Niño, waters off West Africa and in Caribbean seas does make a difference. Graphics of severity and frequency are informative. So you do see good years and bad with a trend to greater severity. That’s not a political statement

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Re: More active hurricane season predicted

Quote:
Originally Posted by outbound View Post
There’s been a endless argument due to not differentiating climate from weather. Still what goes on with El Niño, waters off West Africa and in Caribbean seas does make a difference. Graphics of severity and frequency are informative. So you do see good years and bad with a trend to greater severity. That’s not a political statement
Agreed

I think each year they are better at forecasting from 5 days in. After that there are too many variables. Long range is based on trends of great values of data which inherently make forecasting a greater degree of difficulty.

I don’t thing we would ever get a real read on this. Just probabilities in geral exrapolsting data.

I think that’s it’s remarkable that they can predict what they can.


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Re: More active hurricane season predicted

I’ve been reading up on NOAA hurricane predictions. They only claim their season predictions to be 60% - 70% accurate, within a range of storm numbers. That’s pretty squishy. Specifically.......

Quote:
The seasonal activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 70% of seasons with similar climate conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. These ranges do not represent the total possible ranges of activity seen in past similar years. The predicted ranges for 2020 are centered above the 1981-2010 seasonal averages of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Most of the predicted activity is likely to occur during the peak months (August-October, ASO) of the hurricane season.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1st through November 30th. This outlook will be updated in early August to coincide with the onset of the peak months of the season.
Here is their actual prediction, not media sound bite. Higher than normal is 60% odds.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...urricane.shtml

I just don’t have the time to line up all their historic predictions vs. actual. Here’s the archived predictions....

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...-archive.shtml


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Re: More active hurricane season predicted

The NHC might be a different crew but I've noticed that locally a lot of the NOAA forecasts are way off the mark recently. I'm not talking a week away but, day to day.

Mike
Currently: Hunkering down for a bit.

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