More active hurricane season predicted - SailNet Community
 43Likes
Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools
post #1 of 61 Old 5 Days Ago Thread Starter
Senior Member
 
outbound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: NE & Windwards
Posts: 6,937
Thanks: 145
Thanked 212 Times in 202 Posts
Rep Power: 8
 
More active hurricane season predicted

All sources are fairly consistent in predicting more named storms and hurricanes in the Caribbean and western Atlantic.
Has this caused you to change your thinking, plans or travel?

s/v Hippocampus
Outbound 46
outbound is online now  
Sponsored Links
Advertisement
 
post #2 of 61 Old 5 Days Ago
Master Mariner
 
capta's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: somewhere south of civilization
Posts: 8,088
Thanks: 179
Thanked 420 Times in 408 Posts
Rep Power: 9
 
Re: More active hurricane season predicted

Judging by the temperatures here at this time of year, it feels as though the Atlantic to our east is colder than usual. I haven't chased down the appropriate products, but if true, I'm guessing the EC season will begin later than usual. we will see.

"Any idiot can make a boat go; it takes a sailor to stop one." Spike Africa aboard the schooner Wanderer in Sausalito, Ca. 1964.
“Believe me, my young friend, there is nothing - absolutely nothing - half so much worth doing as simply messing about in boats.” ― Kenneth Grahame, The Wind in the Willows

To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.

facebook.com/svskippingstone
capta is online now  
post #3 of 61 Old 5 Days Ago
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Narragansett Bay
Posts: 21,365
Thanks: 84
Thanked 605 Times in 581 Posts
Rep Power: 12
   
Re: More active hurricane season predicted

I wouldn't plan to be in the hurricane box, whether predicted above or below an average hurricane season.

It seems to me, all I've heard for a decade now is the prediction of above average. Has it always actually happened? I bet it's nuanced, in how many major storms, how many make landfall, etc. Not sure the number of storms is as relevant as where they go.


To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.

Jeanneau 54DS

In the harsh marine environment, something is always in need of repair. Margaritas fix everything.
Minnewaska is offline  
 
post #4 of 61 Old 5 Days Ago
Learning the HARD way...
 
eherlihy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Boston / Ft Myers Area
Posts: 7,076
Thanks: 402
Thanked 320 Times in 311 Posts
Rep Power: 14
 
Re: More active hurricane season predicted

I have seen the predictions for more tropical storms and hurricanes than usual this year. I have also noticed that the water temperatures here in Florida seem to me to be warmer earlier than I remember (already in the 80s!)... However, the predictions do not tell us where the storms will be, and predictions are just educated guesses.

When I was teaching sailing, students would sometimes get panicked over a prediction of rain at any time during the course. I would tell them not to worry. If I based my sailing on the weather forecast, I would rarely be able to leave the mooring.

My PLAN is to bring the boat south this fall. My wife was "retired" in November, so there is the opportunity for us to make the trip together. This plan has been scrubbed for various reasons 4 times before - but this time for sure!. I feel like Bullwinkle pulling the rabbit out of his hat;
chef2sail and bristol299bob like this.


To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.

USCG Licensed OUPV Captain, US/Sailing BKB and ASA 101/103/104/105/106/114/118 Instructor - Also ABYC certified in Marine Electrical Systems,


To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
eherlihy is online now  
post #5 of 61 Old 5 Days Ago
Master Mariner
 
capta's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: somewhere south of civilization
Posts: 8,088
Thanks: 179
Thanked 420 Times in 408 Posts
Rep Power: 9
 
Re: More active hurricane season predicted

I've been living with almost the same hurricane forecast "predicting more named storms and hurricanes in the Caribbean and western Atlantic." since my arrival here in 1978. They always seem to meet their predictions or revise their predictions to suit, as the season progresses, but rarely does any of it impact the areas outside of the normal historical tracks. When the storms do, they are labeled "the storm of the century" or "super storm" or any other name to draw public awareness away from the fact that that one got away from them.
The short term forecasting has improved immensely, after all, there was a time when we knew the storm was going to hit us for sure was when it hit the other side of the island.

but the long term forecasting seems little more than hocus-pocus to me, even with all the technology available today.
chef2sail likes this.

"Any idiot can make a boat go; it takes a sailor to stop one." Spike Africa aboard the schooner Wanderer in Sausalito, Ca. 1964.
“Believe me, my young friend, there is nothing - absolutely nothing - half so much worth doing as simply messing about in boats.” ― Kenneth Grahame, The Wind in the Willows

To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.

facebook.com/svskippingstone
capta is online now  
post #6 of 61 Old 5 Days Ago
bell ringer
 
Don L's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Florida
Posts: 4,647
Thanks: 11
Thanked 135 Times in 121 Posts
Rep Power: 12
 
Re: More active hurricane season predicted

Quote:
Originally Posted by outbound View Post
All sources are fairly consistent in predicting more named storms and hurricanes in the Caribbean and western Atlantic.
Has this caused you to change your thinking, plans or travel?
Pretty sure they have said this the last 4 years.

Besides currently hurricanes aren't even on my radar far as travel goes. All there is is the ...........................VIRUS!

Don't blow air up my rear, be useful and blow it at the sails!
To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
Don L is online now  
The Following User Says Thank You to Don L For This Useful Post:
chef2sail (5 Days Ago)
post #7 of 61 Old 5 Days Ago
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: Northeast U.S
Posts: 2,484
Thanks: 5
Thanked 90 Times in 87 Posts
Rep Power: 6
 
Re: More active hurricane season predicted

My wanderlust has faded to the point that tedious long passages no longer entice me. The COVID19 conditions have made it more so. I now enjoy a nice sail to a nearby port where a three hour weather window is sufficient. If a Hurricane should threaten the area I have plenty of time to get back to my homeport and make preparations.

BTW I just finished INTO THE STORM by Tristram Korten about the El Faro sinking and another ship that sank in the same Hurricane. One crew perished and the other was saved. Reminded me that hubris and luck do not play well together.
chef2sail likes this.

Mike
Currently: Hunkering down for a bit.

To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.


To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
mbianka is online now  
post #8 of 61 Old 5 Days Ago
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: The Bahamas
Posts: 4,278
Thanks: 3
Thanked 163 Times in 161 Posts
Rep Power: 10
 
Re: More active hurricane season predicted

Quote:
Originally Posted by Don L View Post
Pretty sure they have said this the last 4 years.
....
Should continue until a newly discovered kraken swarm can be promoted
mbianka likes this.
RegisteredUser is online now  
post #9 of 61 Old 5 Days Ago
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2020
Posts: 205
Thanks: 5
Thanked 8 Times in 7 Posts
Rep Power: 1
 
Re: More active hurricane season predicted

Quote:
Originally Posted by outbound View Post
All sources are fairly consistent in predicting more named storms and hurricanes in the Caribbean and western Atlantic.
Has this caused you to change your thinking, plans or travel?
The Covid virus issues involving closed borders and the possibility of not being able to return caused us to change our plans two weeks ago, which is why I abandoned previous plan to store boat in Trinidad and sailed over to St Thomas last week and why we’re sailing north to New England and out of the hurricane belt on Sunday. Leaving the boat trapped and/or me stuck indefinitely in the hurricane zone isn’t considered a logical option for us, no matter how many hurricanes are predicted.
mbianka likes this.

Last edited by Ken111; 4 Days Ago at 07:06 AM.
Ken111 is offline  
post #10 of 61 Old 5 Days Ago
Senior Member
 
hpeer's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Onboard
Posts: 1,763
Thanks: 19
Thanked 53 Times in 53 Posts
Rep Power: 16
 
Re: More active hurricane season predicted

Like Ken we are sailing back June 11, weather permitting.

We have 2 issues. If this was a “normal” year We would leave the boat in Grenada and spend the season in Canada. Being we can’t go to Canada we could stay in the islands and move South for a storm. However with the virus we may want to move South only to find Grenada and Trinidad closed.

We won’t reliably be able to get to our Canadian cabin because of the virus lockdowns. We don’t have another place to stay in the USA. So we will take our house with us to the USA. Then dodge hurricanes there.

That seems like the plan with the most flexibility and reliability of occurring.

33' Brewer, Murray 33, steel cutter
44' Pape, Steelmaid, cc steel cutter
hpeer is online now  
Reply

Quick Reply
Message:
Options

By choosing to post the reply above you agree to the rules you agreed to when joining Sailnet.
Click Here to view those rules.

Register Now



In order to be able to post messages on the SailNet Community forums, you must first register.
Please enter your desired user name, your email address and other required details in the form below.
Please note: After entering 3 characters a list of Usernames already in use will appear and the list will disappear once a valid Username is entered.


User Name:
Password
Please enter a password for your user account. Note that passwords are case-sensitive.

Password:


Confirm Password:
Email Address
Please enter a valid email address for yourself.

Email Address:
OR

Log-in











Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 26 (4 members and 22 guests)
Don L , jtsailjt , Ulladh , zeehag
Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Show Printable Version
Email this Page Email this Page



Posting Rules  
You may post new threads
You may post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On

 
For the best viewing experience please update your browser to Google Chrome