Jeff,
I am still trying to understand the forces in the rigging.
forestay sag - sag can only be caused by:
catanary forces
movement of the hounds forward (moving aft would "remove" sag)
lengthening
mast at dockside is held vertical (guyed) by the shrouds and the forestay. The backstay is not supporting the mast. In fact when hauling the backstay is "removed" so the travel lift can get in position.
Under sail upwind
sail will exert a force along the luff (I am unsure how those forces are distributed. Intuitively I would guess that the forces approach 0 at the upper swivel fitting of the roller furler... and increase to max near the furler drum. Sheet angle is supposed to be "aligned" to the mid point of the luff. The "loaded" sail will cause the forestay to sag. The sag is somewhat analogous the the deflection of a loaded floor joist.
The lee shrouds slacken and the windward shrouds take additional load. The shrouds are tuned to the mast straight as the boat heels and the shroud loads shift to the windward side. You don't want the lee shrouds too loose or the swage connection will fatigue from movement of the shroud.
Tensioning the backstay (shortening) will pull the top of the mast aft causing it to bend... because it is "fixed" at the hounds... where the forestay and the upper shrouds are located. Compression forces (vertical from tensioning the backstay) will also contribute to the mast "bowing".
Mainsail flattens when mast bows... draft is reduced.
To remove sag from forestay, tighten windward runners and check stays which at attached above and below the "hounds" and pull the mast at this location aft.
So... the fuzzy thing in my mind is how much do the hounds move aft by tensioning the backstay. If the hounds to move aft...the shrouds will slacken a bit and the mast will lose aft support mid length. I am thinking why runners are important in more than moderate winds.
If the hounds don't move aft... the forestay lengthening is likely only from loading by the sail.
What is the effect of sag? Is or can the sail be designed to take the forestay sag into consideration.. ie it is designed such that a loaded luff is slightly bowed in shape.
The vector diagram... not to scale.... shows the fore and aft forces counteract and net force is 0... hounds is not moving forE or aft. To add tension... ir reduce forestay sag the hounds MUST move aft. How far aft must it move to reduce sag? Seems to me that moving aft an inch or two will have a very very little impact on forestay sag/tension. It's like rotating a rigid "column" a small fraction of a degree.
So... in a masthead rig... the forestay when loaded and sagged will pull at the masthead (forward). Adding backstay tension counteracts the sag by pulling the masthead aft. This is what runners do in a fractional.
I am not understanding your explanation... because I don't see how the hounds move enough to add tension to the forestay.