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This time there will be bodies in the street.
2% mortality rate, which is up from 1% for the common flu. What bodies?

The risk here is economic. It’s very contagious and many could be sick at once, crippling sections of society. But 98% will be back on their feet in a week.
 

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Re: Caribbean Quarantine Status

The risk here is economic. It’s very contagious and many could be sick at once, crippling sections of society. But 98% will be back on their feet in a week.
This is actually of concern. The UK estimates 20% of the work force could be ill at the height of their epidemic, and if that should happen down here and to those who supply the islands, things could get a bit difficult for a few weeks. I
 

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Re: Caribbean Quarantine Status

2% mortality rate, which is up from 1% for the common flu. What bodies?

The risk here is economic. It’s very contagious and many could be sick at once, crippling sections of society. But 98% will be back on their feet in a week.
Sorry, buddy, have to correct you again: the flu mortality rate is 0.1%, not 1% https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

So 2% is a big deal.
 

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Re: Caribbean Quarantine Status

One bonus to the employment scene will be gas stations hiring attendants to spray down the handles on self service outlets. Hope Trump doesn't take credit for the concept.
 

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Re: Caribbean Quarantine Status

So 2% is a big deal.
Not to mention that it appears to be 3.4% so far.

Another thing not considered by the deniers is that the seasonal flu has ~50% of the population inoculated and immune against it, which lessons its ability to spread. This new virus has 0% immunity, and people are contagious 14 days before they show symptoms.

It is actually more contagious and faster spreading than ebola, although ebola has a far worse death rate (over 50%).

Believing this is no worse than the common flu is foolish, and for authorities to say this is criminal.

Mark
 

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Re: Caribbean Quarantine Status

Canceling and stopping hajj is roughy equivilant to canceling 30 super bowls or burning man events
A biggie
 

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Re: Caribbean Quarantine Status

It will all be over in a few months.... Thanks to the marvellous scientists out there...


2 bits of news:

One vaccine is ready after just 45 days. https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-vaccine-moderna-looks-to-ramp-up-production-2020-2?op=1&r=US&IR=T

Far UVC life kills the airborne virus

So does the cancer causing UVC but you can still use it just don't shine it in your eyes or on your skin.

Place to buy... Amazon or your local pet store. UVC lights are used in aquariums to kill goobies.

Mark
 

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Re: Caribbean Quarantine Status

50% infected of 300,000,000 people= 150,000,000 people
2% of 150,000,000 people = 3,000,000 dead...

Older people hit the hardest.

Is that the projection for the US?

Towns health care overwhelmed.
Mortuary’s overrun
Mass creamatoriums to prevent spread
Industry and public events curtailed.

What a mess
 

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Re: Caribbean Quarantine Status

You misread that. They had a vaccine candidate ready in 45 days - not a vaccine itself. This part is actually pretty easy to accomplish. However, the candidate has not yet been shown to produce an immune response, nor have an acceptable safety profile, and that will take clinical trials to determine. This part is hard. If it does show efficacy and safety, then they need to manufacture it and get it distributed.

To get a vaccine out will take at least a year in even the most optimistic scenario.

The UV light is impractical for stopping epidemics, although it can be helpful for maintaining localized sanitary conditions.

Mark
 

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Re: Caribbean Quarantine Status

However, the candidate has not yet been shown to produce an immune response, nor have an acceptable safety profile, and that will take clinical trials to determine.

To get a vaccine out will take at least a year in even the most optimistic scenario.
As I said: Underway. Wanna make $4,500?
"It sounds tempting: a payment of £3,500 to spend two weeks relaxing in front of the television, playing video games or catching up on some reading. There is a catch, however — you will be infected with a coronavirus and banned from physical contact with the outside world.

As part of a global experiment, up to 24 people at a time will be paid to be infected with a coronavirus in a $2bn (£1.53bn) race to find a vaccine for Covid-19."


https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/coronavirus-vaccine-race-volunteers-to-be-infected-in-the-uk-ck0s72x8k



The UV light is impractical for stopping epidemics, although it can be helpful for maintaining localized sanitary conditions.

Mark
China has bought up the worlds supplu of UVC robots and installed them in Chinese hospitals. Maybe htas why their virus figures are doing so well.
 

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Re: Caribbean Quarantine Status

Sorry, buddy, have to correct you again: the flu mortality rate is 0.1%, not 1% https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

So 2% is a big deal.
I had actually read the average over time of regular flu mortality was 0.6% (one back in the early 1900s was 2%), but rounded only because none of these answers to the decimal change the point at all. Even the head of the WHO said it was over 3% (although criticized for bad data) and it doesn't change the point. There will not be bodies in the street, which is the comment I responded to.

For the general population, the only big deal is that you may get the flu. Not die. If you are elderly or have a compromised immune system, all flu is a potentially big deal and this virus is worse. Otherwise, society isn't going to die off over this, most that contract the disease do not even have severe symptoms. Economic activity will take a pause, while a lot of people recover.
 

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practice intense hygiene.

My sister was in the ER and then ICU the week that the first NY case was brought to THAT hospital before he was moved downtown. She is not suffering from any symptoms and has not been tested. She's back home at the assisted living. Close but no cigar.
 

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Re: Caribbean Quarantine Status

I had actually read the average over time of regular flu mortality was 0.6% (one back in the early 1900s was 2%), but rounded only because none of these answers to the decimal change the point at all. Even the head of the WHO said it was over 3% (although criticized for bad data) and it doesn't change the point. There will not be bodies in the street, which is the comment I responded to.

For the general population, the only big deal is that you may get the flu. Not die. If you are elderly or have a compromised immune system, all flu is a potentially big deal and this virus is worse. Otherwise, society isn't going to die off over this, most that contract the disease do not even have severe symptoms. Economic activity will take a pause, while a lot of people recover.
I am sure mortality was worse a long time ago, as it was for pretty much all diseases, but I don't think that is what this discussion is about. The latest numbers (2018-2019) from the CDC are 34.1K deaths for 35.5M patients with symptomatic illnesses, so just under 0.1%. See the link I provided.

We don't know exactly what the equivalent numbers are for Covid-19, most estimates are in the range 2% to 3.4% but I don't think anybody disagrees that they are an order of magnitude higher than those for the influenza virus.

Well, except for some stable genius who is very good at this 'medical' because his uncle taught at MIT. :devil
 

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As I said: Underway. Wanna make $4,500?
"It sounds tempting: a payment of £3,500 to spend two weeks relaxing in front of the television, playing video games or catching up on some reading. There is a catch, however — you will be infected with a coronavirus and banned from physical contact with the outside world.

As part of a global experiment, up to 24 people at a time will be paid to be infected with a coronavirus in a $2bn (£1.53bn) race to find a vaccine for Covid-19."

What a good idea. I'd bet further data will be obtained by 100% postmortem examination of the recipients. (It's in the fine print)
 

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Back when I was a young man, working at the University Of Maryland Hospital in Baltimore, I came in contact with many, many patients with TB. Most of the time I didn't know they even had TB when I first saw them, and as highly contagious as tuberculosis is, I never contracted the disease. At the time, Baltimore had the highest TB rate in the entire world. There were at least a half-dozen, relatively large, TB sanitariums in the city and surrounding suburbs. At least once a week I would go to Mount Wilson Hospital and draw blood for blood gas analysis on about 20 patients, all of which were highly contagious - I was scared to death, dressed in a scrub suit, hat, gown, booties, wearing rubber gloves and a special mask. When I finished, I entered a decontamination room, tossed all the surgical clothes into a plastic bag to be incinerated, then took a hot shower with surgical scrub soap before getting dressed and going back to Baltimore. When I got home, I took another shower and washed all my clothes in Betadine surgical soap. Over the years, I guess I came in contact with more than 1,000 patients with active TB - Well, I'm still alive and kicking.

Is this virus more contagious than TB - I doubt it. I also doubt that the mortality rate is nearly as high as TB. Just use common sense, wash your hands often, especially after coming in contact with items that is touched by the general public. Also, I still carry Chlorox hand wipes in my van all the time - no one ever seems to think about those handles on the cold cases in the grocery stores, and they are a very high source of infections, especially during the winter months.

Good topic, but it likely is much of a nothing burger when it comes to infectiious diseases, but the press seems to love that word "Pandemic" a lot lately.

Go sailing - I only wish I could,

Gary :cool: (The old codger.)
 

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I’m not a doctor nor a scientist
The virus hits a retirement community in Seattle area within 2 weeks 13 dead
I’d say it’s serious enough that it shouldn’t be attributed to media frenzy

CDC defines elderly anyone over 60, so how many of you are like me in that category
Here is the CDC fast facts

https://www.cdc.gov/aging/emergency/pdf/guide.pdf

While looking at past history on epidemics is fine, the worldis different from even 50 or 100 years ago


More elderly longer living on average
Transmission spread like lightening do to world economy and travel
More dependence on others in infrastructure..ie food supply
Created concentration in numbers in urban areas
More resistant bacteria and viruses due to drug use
 

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Re: Caribbean Quarantine Status

I am sure mortality was worse a long time ago, as it was for pretty much all diseases, but I don't think that is what this discussion is about. The discussion I engaged in is whether there will be "bodies in the street". Even the most deadly of estimates do not suggest that will be the case. It's most concerning for the elderly and compromised. ~98% will survive.

We don't know exactly what the equivalent numbers are for Covid-19, most estimates are in the range 2% to 3.4%
3.4% was discredited, that was the head of the WHO. Nevertheless, we've not had a very good capability to test either. Until recently, one had to be both symptomatic and a doctor had to decided a test was warranted. Testing supplies have been limited worldwide. In all likelihood, more people have had the disease than we know. Some symptoms are mild and one would never go to the doctor. Deaths are more accurately tracked. Therefore, the denominator is likely larger than is being used in these mortality stats and the ratio will decline.

I'm fairly rigid on needing to stop the spread of this disease. One should not be cavalier about it, as one could be the vector that gives it to an elderly victim. Nevertheless, whatever the mortality multiplier to ordinary flu turns out to the be the case, there is no reason to say there will be bodies in the street. Even in China, where new cases are in decline, only a fraction of the population contracted the disease and low single digits of that population perished. All deaths are tragic, but some of the rhetoric is being exaggerated.
 
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