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".... Ahhhh, yes, your Double-Blind Placebo-Controlled Clinical Trial that took a team of 20 2 years and was excellently peer reviewed the next year, published the year after is all very good.... However, we can't actually approve your XXXX because no one has REPLICATED the results of your trial. Unfortunately a team about to do a replication trial have all died of the virus you were trying to cure. Sorry"
Who are you quoting here?

Mark
 

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The US has charged Venezuela's President, Nicolás Maduro, and other senior officials in the country with drug trafficking crimes.

The move, which will increase tensions between the two nations, was announced by Attorney General William Barr.

The US also offered a $15m (£12.5m) reward for any information leading to Mr Maduro's arrest.


This seems criminal to me in a time when that money would be much better spent on items like PPEs and ventilators to keep Americans alive.
How many PPEs and ventilators would $15m buy? How much economic relief would it buy?

What exactly are this administration's priorities these days when even local law enforcement is changing policing policies in this pandemic?
Isn't it time Americans got angry, really angry, and made it clear that they want to be the priority in these terrible times!
The U.S. government continues to work despite the Virus. The Depart of Justice Lawyers are still working if only from home. As far as masks go money is not the issue it's the product. Even there the government Lawyers are on the case. Attorney General Barr announced the DOJ would go after hoarders and price gougers:

"Attorney General Barr: "If you have a big supply of toilet paper in your house, this is not something you have to worry about. But if you are sitting on a warehouse with masks, surgical masks, you will be hearing a knock on your door."

Three days later this:

"Service Employees International Union United Healthcare Workers West announced Thursday that it located 39 million N95 masks and will make them available to state and local governments and health care systems that are fighting the novel coronavirus outbreak.

Funny how that works. :)
 

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Mark some years ago a cure for Alzheimer’s was developed. Proof of concept was perfect.phase one and two trials showed dramatic positive results. A phase three trial was started but shortly aborted. The treatment was injection of a monoclonal antibody that latched on to amyloid. The amyloid was then cleared by existing mechanisms in the person. Problem was after some delay study people developed a pan encephalitis. So that started to happen in the phase one and then phase two people. Phase three was aborted.
HC has been around for quite awhile. I have a first order relative on it for autoimmune disease. Toxicities well worked out. However, you have fuzzy numbers on ARDS and even mortality rate. You have fuzzy numbers on incidence of prolonged QT in the highest risk groups for ARDS or death as Plaquinil isn’t commonly given to that group. Nor do you have a firm dose response curve for efficacy.
Think it makes sense to at least get preliminary numbers. Then it’s rational to dispense and monitor. Use the monitoring data to modify use. Believe that’s what’s in progress. Believe that’s rational. Expect that’s going on with a multiplicity of agents. CDC says it is. Also happening throughout the world. Perhaps there are more available. More effective. More benign agents. Glad to see they are all being explored. Being on a respirator in a medically induced coma sucks. At that point risk/benefit is entirely different than mild URI symptoms. If you have limited supplies and resources where in the course of this illness you do intervene? Lots of big questions. Some can be approached by science. Some are dependent upon non scientific issues.
 

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I have never lived in a building with a doorman but I see the rationale for them being considered essential. In your post immediately preceding the one I am quoting from, you mention concerns about looting, and rightly so IMHO. I would consider doormen simply security, in particular for buildings that are set up for having access controlled by them even in normal times.
Not only security, they help the elderly and disabled residents in the building. For many they are far more than a luxury.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk
 

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The scientific method exists for good reasons. Most people understand the placebo effect, but what most don't realize is that in medication and treatment studies, the placebo effect can be as high as 70%. This is why so much anecdotal evidence exists around effectiveness of witch doctors, homeopathy, miracle cures, "what the establishment is keeping from you" stuff, etc.

Scientists are trained not to be biased, but confirmation bias is so deep in the human condition that even scientists trained intensively to not succumb to it understand that they need to design studies specifically to remove themselves from the results.

There is no "conspiracy" around the scientific method. Physicians reporting results outside of any actual study design at all are not using the scientific method. They should make their results public, along with any data they have, and scientists should look at it and use it in study design or direction - but these results should not be used to hype a cure, make public health policy, or (most importantly) denigrate or mock the scientific method.

Elsewise, science is lessened in public opinion, and the general public becomes dumber under the guise of "knowing more".

Mark
 

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I will admit. I don't know how to view the numbers. I'm trying to wrap my head around the Governor of NY calling for 40,000 Ventilators. ( i was doing this before any politics got involved)

If I look at the numbers that are public it looks like roughly 2.5% of the cases need ICU care ( assuming ventilator)

If I divide 40,000 by 2.5 % I get 1.6 million cases in New York. New York State State currently has 36,991 cases and approx 1300 in ICU (higher than avg.rate)

At that rate New York would need to get to roughly another 1.5 million cases to require 40,000 ventilators.

That would be a doubling of cases every day for the next 5 days. ?

They just stopped construction in NYC which has been going on this whole time. Hard to wrap my head around that too, given the dire forecasts coming out of NY everyday.
 

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Discussion Starter #588
I will admit. I don't know how to view the numbers. I'm trying to wrap my head around the Governor of NY calling for 40,000 Ventilators. ( i was doing this before any politics got involved)
I read that thousands of new ventilators delivered by the Federal Gvt have been found in a New York storage area horded, not released, by NY authorities.

Hording is a very natural human trait. Similar to disbelief... its easy for people to not believe things they don't wish to believe. LOL

Don't know the numbers as its all too politicised :)


Mark
 

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I will admit. I don't know how to view the numbers. I'm trying to wrap my head around the Governor of NY calling for 40,000 Ventilators. ( i was doing this before any politics got involved)

If I look at the numbers that are public it looks like roughly 2.5% of the cases need ICU care ( assuming ventilator)

If I divide 40,000 by 2.5 % I get 1.6 million cases in New York. New York State State currently has 36,991 cases and approx 1300 in ICU (higher than avg.rate)

At that rate New York would need to get to roughly another 1.5 million cases to require 40,000 ventilators. .......
Exactly.
 

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I read that thousands of new ventilators delivered by the Federal Gvt have been found in a New York storage area horded, not released, by NY authorities.

Hording is a very natural human trait. Similar to disbelief... its easy for people to not believe things they don't wish to believe. LOL

Don't know the numbers as its all too politicised :)


Mark
I am watching Cuomo speak now. He was questioned about the ventilators

He said that story about the ventilators Was GROSSLY UNINFORMED . The ventilators he talked about have been just received yesterday earmarked that day to be distributed today.

So who to believe. I won’t politicize this however one lies constantly the other is driving around on the front lines.
 

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I read that thousands of new ventilators delivered by the Federal Gvt have been found in a New York storage area horded, not released, by NY authorities.
You "read" that from a Trump tweet, since it is the only source. Cuomo has stated that these were just delivered to a distribution warehouse, and have not been "hoarded". They just arrived yesterday - they weren't even "found".

It is also easy for people to believe only what they want to believe.

Mark
 

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Who would hoard ventilators? That sounds like a BS story. Perhaps they were stored for emergency use and lost track of.... it's an emergency.... use them.
 

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NJ numbers being reported:

As of Friday. 8,825 tested positive

108 deaths = 1.2 %

N.J. has performed a paltry 28,043 tests and is reporting a 33.4 % positive test rate. I'm assuming that means people with the seasonal flu symptoms are being tested, or people who have showed symptoms but recovered, or they're letting worried healthy people in the line.

1080 reported hospitalizations. NJ doesn't report the number on ventilators but just applying the 2.5 % number, that would = 27

Tests are ramping up, test results are lagging perhaps by as much as 7 days. Predictions are that we are several weeks to peak, if people can keep their butts out of trouble!

I'm a little shocked that the State that is home to 14 of the 20 largest Pharmaceutical companies in the world, Bio-research labs etc. can't get it's act together to test and report. I guess, I'm missing something.
 

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What’s missing is point of care testing (not invented yet but in development) and paucity of adequate numbers of the test kits ( of currently available technology) where there needed.
I don’t think government is playing politics with this in the way alluded to on this site. There’s real logistical issues. It’s in both parties interest at all governmental levels to do the best they can. You can lament their mishandling it or proposing stupid things like lifting quarantine in place prematurely but that doesn’t negate the fact all of us are ultimately at risk and all of us will suffer (even if we remain healthy) until this pandemic resolves.
RMaddy, myself and C have been repetitively singing you the same song. We made not be in perfect harmony but the lyrics are the same. This isn’t even a “first do no harm” thing. It’s simple logic.
 

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FDA kicked a second time:

Covid-19: FDA approves use of convalescent plasma to treat critically ill patients

https://www.bmj.com/content/368/bmj.m1256


The US Food and Drug Administration has approved the use of plasma from recovered patients to treat people who are critically ill with covid-19, provided that doctors get approval over the telephone.1

The method has been used in the past to treat diseases such as polio, measles, and mumps, in the 1918 flu epidemic, and in previous outbreaks of respiratory infections similar to covid-19.

The FDA’s decision came a day after the New York state governor, Andrew Cuomo, said that the state’s health department would begin to treat critically ill patients with convalescent plasma.
 

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I don't know how you feel about National Geographic as a source for info on C-19, but here's something that may be of interest. I'll include the link at the end so you can read the whole article if you wish.



The chloroquine narrative started with several small studies from China and France—both of which have shortcomings and offer few lessons for patients at large. The French results are based on only 36 people and focus on the patients’ viral load, or the amount of virus in the body. Indeed, the only patients to die or to be sent to intensive care in the French study had taken hydroxychloroquine.

“We don’t have data from randomized, controlled trials telling us how chloroquine worked in real people,” says Annie Luetkemeyer, an HIV and infectious diseases specialist at the University of California, San Francisco, Department of Medicine.

Self-medication with hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin may also come with hazards, as the two drugs might stress the heart and increase the risk of arrhythmia. On Monday, the president vowed to send New York thousands of doses of the combo for an FDA trial, not long after an Arizona hospital reported one of its patients died after self-medicating on chloroquine phosphate, a form of the compound used to clean aquarium tanks. Nigerian health officials reported two cases of chloroquine overdoses over the weekend.

“The last thing that we want right now is to inundate our emergency departments with patients who believe they found a vague and risky solution that could potentially jeopardize their health,” Daniel Brooks, the medical director of the Banner Poison and Drug Information Center in Phoenix, says in a statement.


https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/03/as-coronavirus-surges-how-hospitals-are-treating-covid-disease/?cmpid=org=ngp::mc=crm-email::src=ngp::cmp=editorial::add=SpecialEdition_20200327&rid=A7AAF9E10930A77DE4B14B1426BFF1DB
 

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FDA kicked a second time:

Covid-19: FDA approves use of convalescent plasma to treat critically ill patients

https://www.bmj.com/content/368/bmj.m1256


The US Food and Drug Administration has approved the use of plasma from recovered patients to treat people who are critically ill with covid-19, provided that doctors get approval over the telephone.1

The method has been used in the past to treat diseases such as polio, measles, and mumps, in the 1918 flu epidemic, and in previous outbreaks of respiratory infections similar to covid-19.

The FDA’s decision came a day after the New York state governor, Andrew Cuomo, said that the state’s health department would begin to treat critically ill patients with convalescent plasma.
After getting back from Bonaire in January I stayed a few days in Washington DC. Then took the Amtrak to New York's Penn Station. Then the Long Island Railroad home. A few days later I started not to feel good in the evening. The next day I could not get out of bed was very achy and needed to sleep on my side to breath better. A day or two later I felt things clear up fast and I was fine. I had a Flu shot a few months before. I can't remember the last time I had Flu like conditions like that. I've been wondering if I actually had CONVID-19 virus. I heard of at least three other people including a Doctor who is wondering the same thing. I'd sure like to get tested if I might have had the virus and I could donate some plasma. But, I don't think those tests are being done yet.
 

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https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-daily-data-summary.pdf


This is the NYC Data that I spotted, but couldn't find again until tonight :

80% of the positive test cases in NY belong to folks under the age of 64

44% , the largest segment, are between the ages of 18 and 44

20% are over the age of 65.

https://www.businessinsider.com/new-york-city-coronavirus-cases-deaths-hospitalizations-by-age-chart-2020-3

The above article is a few days old, but shows the rate of hospitalizations and the mortality rates in each age group.
 
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