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Rick,

You did mention in a PM ....and now again here. That’s a curious play

My post wasn’t in relation to Minniesails post....that’s why I didn’t quote it. I agreed with him.

I was trying to make the point that the science of hurricane forecasting is still progressing and it’s a difficult one to make a 100% prediction.

I think the NHC has done a good job with Dorian.

The news hype is another issue
 

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Pretty neat view of the eye of the hurricane passing over Edisto buoy:
G]
That's an incredibly long period of the eye.
Huge hurricane and very slow moving.

Also shows clearly that the Second half is worse than the first.
 

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The worst is behind us but winds are still strong and rain is coming down in waves. Fortunately, not much damage here and we still have power. We had 90 mph winds with higher gusts. There is some flooding
 

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Huh.

The most popular and most followed government Twitter account gives a serious warning that is hundreds of miles off base, and doesn't correct or update that warning. And that's supposed to be OK.

OK.
I don't disagree, but please drop this angle of analysis of storm prediction and reporting. Your issue is a reflection of a political battle where each side's best defense of their behavior is the other guy started it.
 
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The worst is behind us but winds are still strong and rain is coming down in waves. Fortunately, not much damage here and we still have power. We had 90 mph winds with higher gusts. There is some flooding
Looks good.

I notice 2boats with their mainsail still on.

Yanmar will have a nice clean floor.

Glad your survived. :grin
 
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Thank you, guys :)
Winds have weakened here and it is not raining much. I went for a walk to check out the neighborhood. Some trees are down, some power outages, some flooding on the roads, but overall it’s looking good. No major damage.
 

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We just heard from our friends in Beaufort, NC. They put their boat up in the hard on Adams Creek, just inland of Beaufort. The yard is 11’ above normal water level. They just said they are “fine” with details to come.
 

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Great to hear our locals are making out well. I assume our FL posters made out okay too, but don't recall hearing from them.

It makes me realize it's impossible not to cry wolf, in most cases, with hurricanes. The ability to forecast, with sufficient time to prepare, is simply not accurate enough to avoid warning the vast majority of coastline that will not ultimately be hit head on. It's just math. The cone is only 66% accurate and with a few days to prepare, the eye could land within a 100+ mile area. By definition, it won't land in the majority of the warning area. Understanding storm surge is probably must more important than eye wall landfall, which covers a larger area.

That said, media should do a much better job of making this point clear, and educating the public, along with the point that you must prepare. Beyond wanting to sensationalize for ratings, I believe they think the public is stupid. Dangerous position to take, as it leaks over into coverage for all sorts of topics.

Someone mentioned the need to get the news out quickly. Journalism used to have standards of accuracy. It's accurate to define what the cone means and the potential. There are simply so many for-profit cable news networks now, they are overly pressured to scoop.
 
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Great to hear our locals are making out well. I assume our FL posters made out okay too, but don't recall hearing from them.

It makes me realize it's impossible not to cry wolf, in most cases, with hurricanes. The ability to forecast, with sufficient time to prepare, is simply not accurate enough to avoid warning the vast majority of coastline that will not ultimately be hit head on. It's just math. The cone is only 66% accurate and with a few days to prepare, the eye could land within a 100+ mile area. By definition, it won't land in the majority of the warning area. Understanding storm surge is probably must more important than eye wall landfall, which covers a larger area.
I can report from the Canaveral area that there wasn’t much wind or rain here from Dorian. We commonly see much worse from the typical summer thunderstorm, although their effects last a much shorter time than a passing hurricane.

I’m on the inland side of the lock at Port Canaveral and don’t know how much surge was seen inside the port.

For me the NHC forecasts were very helpful and acceptably accurate given the difficulty of forecasting a tropical system’s path and intensity. The 3 day forecasts were all pretty accurate in my opinion. I don’t have TV and avoid weather channel and local news reporting on the internet about storms like these for the most part because of the hype and hysteria they seem to need to push.

Dorian left an unimaginably sad situation in the Bahamas, and I hope that everyone in the Carolinas comes through with as little damage as possible.
 

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We just heard from our friends in Beaufort, NC. They put their boat up in the hard on Adams Creek, just inland of Beaufort. The yard is 11’ above normal water level. They just said they are “fine” with details to come.
I know that yard. Very high above water. Great place to haul out if you reserve the spot in advance. They are just a few miles from me across Neuse River.
 

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I can report from the Canaveral area that there wasn’t much wind or rain here from Dorian. We commonly see much worse from the typical summer thunderstorm, although their effects last a much shorter time than a passing hurricane.

I’m on the inland side of the lock at Port Canaveral and don’t know how much surge was seen inside the port.

For me the NHC forecasts were very helpful and acceptably accurate given the difficulty of forecasting a tropical system’s path and intensity. The 3 day forecasts were all pretty accurate in my opinion. I don’t have TV and avoid weather channel and local news reporting on the internet about storms like these for the most part because of the hype and hysteria they seem to need to push.

Dorian left an unimaginably sad situation in the Bahamas, and I hope that everyone in the Carolinas comes through with as little damage as possible.
Good to hear
 

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The worst is behind us but winds are still strong and rain is coming down in waves. Fortunately, not much damage here and we still have power. We had 90 mph winds with higher gusts. There is some flooding
Great you are making it through
 
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Why should it?
How do you prevent a Cat 5 hurricane?
Even the concrete buildings got flattened.
How do you prevent storm surge?

I guess we should have a moratorium on building with in 20 miles of all coastal waters . That way no one is affected.

Instead of mandatory evacuations maybe we should declare Marshall law and force people out of potential hit zones. Course that’s hard to predict accurately. No one predicted it woukd linger 36 hours ahead of time over the Bahamas. No one could have predicted a week ahead of time it would roll up the coast 70 miles offshore.

People already build differently in hurricane areas , but there will still always be destruction.

I think the NHC predicted as best they could according to current technologies but predicting will always be a science of probabilities. It continues to increase in accuracy but there will always be the Monday morning quarterbacks from their computer perches pointing out what was missed or where it actually went using 20/20 hindsight.

Unfortunately we are relegated to REACTING to natural disasters. That is where even more criticism come in.

Note here it is the United States who answers the call worldwide. Whether it’s Bahamas, earthquakes in Haiti , e bola in Africa. And the US does it without regard of political persuasions. The American taxpayers foot the bill to. Many American corporations ( though more and more are international) donate to the disaster products and efforts. The US Navy is usually the first to arrive to help, no matter where in the world. Unfortunately. This part of our generosity and care for other humans goes virtually unnoticed or unrecognized

Instead there is criticism . That’s doesn’t mean we can’t improve but for goodness sake, thank god for US satellights, US meteorological data, US assets . and US money.

So what should we learn ? How would it have saved the Bahamians from a horrible force of nature. .
 

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Just to note that the Brits pre-positioned a landing craft vessel equipped with much equipment, water carriers, a helicopter and two badges to land such. They are already landing equipment and supplies.

I think that is pretty good work.

The RFA Mounts Bay crew have so far delivered shelter kits, ration packs and water. The Wildcat will also be airlifting relief to outlying, cut off communities in liaison with the Royal Bahamian Defence Force.

The ship has been in the Caribbean since June in preparation for the hurricane season and was re-tasked last week to sail to The Bahamas in anticipation of Hurricane Dorian, the strongest ever recorded in The Bahamas.

RFA Mounts Bay has embarked a dedicated Humanitarian and Disaster Relief team, and is carrying vital aid and specialist equipment. It also stores Department for International Development water carriers, hygiene kits including basic items such as soap, and shelter kits. Since Hurricane Dorian hit, a liaison officer from the Royal Bahamas Defence Force and a DFID humanitarian expert have been onboard to help coordinate the relief efforts.
 

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The immediate disaster response to the Bahamas will be adequate.

Where the huge disparity will be is the huge sums invested into hurricane damage in the USA compared to the Bahamas.

Puerto Rico population 3.4 million Vs Bahamas Population 395,000
PR, Political arguing aside - received $41 BILLION (maybe up to $90 billion long term) from the US Federal government. Is any country going to give the Bahamas $4 billion?

I notice China is trying to make grants for hurricane relief so they can 'buy' the Bahamas - China has already built the worlds largest container port in the Bahamas, in Freetown.

Perhaps the US/China battle will work well for the Bahamas... but to the tune of $4B? I doubt it.

Make no mistake, if you are going to have a natural disaster quickly move your country into the United States!
 
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The average historical record of hurricane paths show which areas are vulnerable. But this has hardly deterred development and use of this land. There is little that can be done to make this development sustainable. Insurance is hardly and solution.

Since the gov and relief agencies are always picking up the pieces and the costs... perhaps it's time for a political solution where property is "bought back" and the vulnerable areas are returned to "nature" and become "barriers"...buffers. The time frame needs to see the buy back over multiple years with perhaps the greatest pay offs for those who move out sooner.

It's really stupid to put yourself, your family and your property in a perilous situation. Many people didn't know, or didn't believe the risk was high enough. Now they do. Now they have to undo their mistake.

I have a friend who sold their Fire Island home because they understood the inevitable fate of their community. Smart move. They moved up to Vermont.

Obviously high areas which are in the paths of hurricanes with still take a battering... but likely nothing like what we see in the low lying coastal areas.
 

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I think it's only appropriate to rebuild low lying, hurricane or sea rise vulnerable areas, if they can economically sustain themselves through the next inevitable disaster. These disasters are assured periodically, they aren't freaks of nature. It makes no sense to continually rebuild coastlines that don't generate the resources to be sustainable themselves.

Perhaps there are exceptions to the rule and some retired grandmother in Nebraska may want to pay taxes to subsidize a flood insurance and disaster program to be sure some part of the country is rebuilt over and over. I doubt there are many exceptions.

I'm in favor of saying, here's the money from the flood/disaster/whatever program. You can either rebuild there or somewhere else. If you rebuild there, you're totally on your own next time. I'm sure the idea needs some tweaking for exceptions, such as China wanting to control/own an island off our coast. That somewhat how we ended up with Puerto Rico and the USVIs. Now that they no longer serve the same purpose, it's a problem, because they cost multiple times more than they create in economic value.
 
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That somewhat how we ended up with Puerto Rico and the USVIs. Now that they no longer serve the same purpose, it's a problem, because they cost multiple times more than they create in economic value.
Release them to self rule.
 
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