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Discussion Starter #1
From what ive seen forecasted, it will break up after hitting the DR.
Hopefully not build.
Barbados on watch.
Capta is in that area
 

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The waves are marching through. Already up to invest 99. September should be interesting. Just hope they continue to be north of Grenada when they organize and upper level shear remains strong.
 

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Never take them for granted. However, Tropical Tidbits puts odds on it falling apart after crossing the Leewards somewhere. No doubt messy, but fairly small. Hopefully, he's right, but he says small storm intensity is hard to predict.

The games have begun. September is always the top of the bell curve.
 

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Discussion Starter #4
Models are all over the place.
Euro has it going thru the mona, hitting t and c, san salvador, top of eleuthera, abaco, grand bahama and florida just below canaveral.
Another has it breaking up after hitting the dr.

Im in george town so it has my attention
 

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Chris thinks Barbados st Vincent st Lucia. Squalls 30-50kts in Grenada.
 

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Discussion Starter #7
The different models are closer in agreement now.
Windwards are known.. its there
What happens after impact with pr and dr is still iffy.
 

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Interesting take on this hurricane season from noonsite. Opinion is September will be worse than usual due to being an off El Niño year.
 

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September will be active, it always is.

I wonder what they mean by "usual". I don't have Sept data handy, but in the last 20 years, named storms have ranged from 8 in both 1997 and 2014 to 28 in 2005. Nothing all that usual from year to year. A regression line is heading higher, for sure, with high deviation from norm, year to year.
 

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Both incidence and severity are treading higher with out a doubt. At present less concerned about Dorian and more concerned about Erin. Less concerned about the boat and more concerned about the house. We just completed building a new house. Landscaping not completed. Have erosion concerns.
 

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Once again, putting your faith in the forecasters is a fool's errand. I'm a bit mystified why they didn't take into account the very warm water that Dorian would be moving into whether or not it hit the mountains of SD. Time and time again we have seen minimal storms blossom when they get into the warm waters of the southern Bahamas and the Gulfstream.
So watch out, those of you in Fla. At this time Dorian may hit central Fla as a high cat 1 or cat 2, if the storm doesn't slow and cook in the warm water for a time.
Forecasters 0, Dorian 1.
 
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The 11:00 am update looks ugly......my boat is in the Canaveral area, dadgummit. I’m in NC right now, leaving later today to go strip the boat and double up the dock lines.
 
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....more concerned about Erin. ....
Erin is currently a 30 kt storm and I'm not seeing any landfall predictions, except 5% on the Cape. Not sure where your house is, but what are you seeing that has you concerned?

My fingers are crossed for a long Labor Day weekend cruise here. So far, not seeing anything that should mess it up. (hopefully)
 

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Once again, putting your faith in the forecasters is a fool's errand. I'm a bit mystified why they didn't take into account the very warm water that Dorian would be moving into whether or not it hit the mountains of SD. Time and time again we have seen minimal storms blossom when they get into the warm waters of the southern Bahamas and the Gulfstream.
So watch out, those of you in Fla. At this time Dorian may hit central Fla as a high cat 1 or cat 2, if the storm doesn't slow and cook in the warm water for a time.
Forecasters 0, Dorian 1.
To be fair, Tropical Tidbits definitely showed this had some chance, it just wasn't his most likely a few days ago. He was right that it's strength wasn't anything out of the ordinary for the islands, when it made landfall yesterday. The issue is what's next.
 

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Please look at Captas post. Been beat by the forecasters in the past. Currently predicting 3-4” of rain over less than a day. If that increases significantly my concern is not wind but flash flooding from Erin.
Have fun on your cruise. Kind of like rain as it sure beats down the waves.
 

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Discussion Starter #16
Euro model showing....hit abaco and grand bahama, impact at canaveral, going across to tampa bay, then hitting pensacola
Others show..over top of abaco, hitting just north of canav, hugging tight to coast up to brunswick, then losing its power.
Then carolina and ga coast get some strong ne
 

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I’m hoping the euro model is wrong. Our boat is in Pensacola, and I have some complicated work travel that would need to be scrapped to go prepare.
 

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just be ready for a c4 or 5 hitting mid fla...where it goes after will be less intense and mor eendurable. as the watwrs between pr and fla are nicely warm and conditions are good, it CAN conceivably intensify to a c5. be real prep well and hunker. hold fast and DUCK.
remember these models are just that--MODELS not reality. models showed patricia would hit well away from me n mine, w ewere outside the cone-- guess what--we got the eye. wooohoo these icepick sized storms are fierce.
just be ready. get off puter and hunker well then write about it.

hold fast be ready and duck well when it comes
 

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If it mows up the state, like currently predicted, it’s going to blow the budget. :eek
 
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