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Discussion Starter #21
Passageweather has 92L hitting around st martin next thurs and then blowing out.
Also has another behind 92 that turns N mid atlantic.

1st plots i saw of Florence had her going due N before getting as far as 60W. Not so now...

Wait and see....
 

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The last vlog from Levy Cowan at Tropical Tidbits is a couple of days old, which is unusual during active times like this. However, his last vlog did point out the 500mb steering currents to the north and south of Florence's path were highly variable and that's why it's been very unpredictable where she'll go.
 

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There are now 4 disturbances, with cyclone potential, lined up across the Atlantic. Can't recall last time this many appeared at once. The latest popped up, with only 10%/48hr potential, between Florence and the East Coast.

I fear this is going to be a wild ride.
 

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Truly interesting. I wonder how this new disturbance will effect Florence, take some energy away perhaps?
 

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snake charmer, cat herder
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looks like season is ramping up. you are playing catch up with us, and we on letter p. wooohooooo.
we successfully sent ours all to hawaii except iliana, which dissipated over barra de navidad and environs.
has been an interesting and strange cane season.
be safe and prepared. in transit--get safe and prepared.
 

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2008 Jeanneau 39i S/V Grace
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Someone please remind me again of rule #1 of passage sailing?
 

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Be oblivious to weather forecasts?????
Ignore September as peak hurricane season?
Try and outrun the weather?
 

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“Don’t have a schedule.”
 

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bell ringer
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Just don’t worry and be an idiot! It’s not like a hurricane just shows up.

Me, I’m not going down the NJ coast till there’s a good forecast that has been consistent for 3 days.
 

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In some places the threat is more from water than wind. Serious storm tides are expected Thursday and Friday on the central coast of North Carolina. The Pamlico and Neuse are to be hard hit, in excess of ten feet at Washington and New Bern. The normal ones there are about two feet.

If by any chance you are in the area, be warned. I'm now in New Bern doing what I can to secure Sequoyah. She's tied to a floating dock so should be safer than some, but if you're at a fixed one you'll need to keep an eye on your lines throughout this.
 

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In some places the threat is more from water than wind......
That's almost always the case. The water does the most damage. As for the wind, it's not how strong the wind blows, but what the wind blows. Your house may take much of the wind, but not the hard debris blown into it.
 

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Discussion Starter #33
New Bern is in the projected direct landfall area.
Florence is now about 1500 miles away.
If possible i would wrangle some friends/help and motor the ICW south for several days.
 

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We have some friends in Beaufort, NC, living on a dock. They are going to move up to a very enclosed marina on a Broad Creek, NE of Oriental.

Not sure why they are not heading South but they are not.

Fingers crossed for them.

I don’t think New Bern will get a huge dose of wind, water yes, wind not so much.
 
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