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That profile map is very cool!!

I have read this starts way back in Michigan, but I still don’t follow all the engineering. It’s been implied that the IJC could theoretically take the lake down even further, during the winter, than they have already. I’m not sure I understand the reasons for not doing so. Perhaps aesthetics, perhaps waterfront usage, perhaps the hydro electric consistency. I smell an agenda in most of what I’ve read.

What does make sense, is when the winter draw down doesn’t prove sufficient, it’s too late. Way too late in ‘17, but okay in ‘18. They can’t know for sure.

It seems we’ve messed with nature, via dams and watershed removal, and built too close to the flood planes. Not sure we’re going to collectively hold back the inevitable for much longer.
 

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1968 Columbia 50
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To raise the water level of just Lake Michigan it takes 400 Billion gallons of water, now multiply that by 23, as it is 23" above the year around datum norm, and that is a lot of water.

Now take into account the rest of the Great Lakes and all together it would take 1,692,000,000,000,000 gallons of water to raise all of the Great Lakes by 1" alone!!
 

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PHP:
Agree even WAY over here on the Chesapeake. Here's a pic of my Dufour 31 nearly popping over the pier. I have another pic that was within a few inches.
Sorry not seeing that on the Chesapeake and we are only 30 miles north of you. We’ve had a lot of April/ May rain fall as well as the normal full moon cycles and easterly breezes which contribute to high water, but no CONSISTANT longer term rise in water levels at the dock.
 

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snake charmer, cat herder
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snowmelt happens and is transient change.
does noaa need to record transient change as real permachange???
wait until snow is done melting. they are continuing to see snow in upstate ny, so it could take a while. they have been asking when does gw start....... and hoping apple trees have ability to keep blooms just now popping out.
 

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A lot of high water on the Chesapeake this month. >1 foot above normal for much of May:

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/w...19&timezone=GMT&datum=MLLW&interval=6&action=

Before I found this thread this morning, I was wondering how long this trend has to continue befor NOAA considers resetting the datum.

I would think a month in the big scale of things could be an aberration

Very rainy May. Last year was the rainiest year for many years. Whether that means a permanent change in the norm. To small a survey or too short a sample especially when weather is measured in thousands of year patters ( or millions)

A foot change on the Chessie has some alarmed . Where we are now a foot change they wouldn’t even flinch with normal 5 -8 foot changes. Peolple who build on the Chessie build way to close to the water. A one foot change permanently would affect many
 

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Discussion Starter #27
Here is an article on the Thousand Islands area. It says that levels may or may not exceed 2017. One figure that stood out to me is that levels are currently 73 cm above averagel, so that's about 29 inches.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/otta...-river-kingston-brockville-flooding-1.5142304

I spent most of the summer last year cruising the Thousand Islands, much of the dock infrastructure was still not repaired and was out of service still from the damage in 2017. I am thinking it's going to be another tough year in this classic great lakes cruising ground.

And the total vessel ban is still in place on the Ottawa River for 400 km.

I wonder if this is going to have lasting effects on regional boat ownership and sailing participation? Cost of boat ownership is a tough pill to swallow when you can't even get out on the water.

On a brighter note I have been out on the Rideau every day this week end and people with boats on trailers/roof racks seem to be heading there as an alternative. It's not really a viable alternative for keel boats though, too many low bridges.
 

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I wonder if it’s technically possible to take the lakes down even further over the winter, to allow for increasing spring runoff. If even possible, I suspect that would impact access to shore facilities and possibly the hydro infrastructure, during winter months. These may be easier to modify than moving Montreal. :)
 

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^^^ that's pretty crazy. The entire season gone. Imagine you kept your boat there? Paying insurance, maintenance, or even loans with monthly payments? It's not like there is really that much overflow capacity at great lakes marinas for alternative slip options.
 

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This is hyper-local and not in the Great Lakes watershed, but there's a lot of water in Minnesota too. The little lake I keep my boat on empties into Minnehaha Creek, which forms Minnehaha Falls (of Longfellow's Song of Hiawatha fame), and the water flow has been over three times the median value all spring. We're soggy.
 

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1968 Columbia 50
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This is hyper-local and not in the Great Lakes watershed, but there's a lot of water in Minnesota too. The little lake I keep my boat on empties into Minnehaha Creek, which forms Minnehaha Falls (of Longfellow's Song of Hiawatha fame), and the water flow has been over three times the median value all spring. We're soggy.
That is a lot of change...now imagine that over an entire region, and you understand why the levels are what they are. Checking our local forecast this morning show rain for 5 out of the next 6 days...my boat is going to float right off the stands if this keeps up...ok not really but you get my drift.

Minne….On a quick sidestep, how is the new daysailer working out for the club that you picked up here in Michigan, has anyone taken it out yet??
 

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That is a lot of change...now imagine that over an entire region, and you understand why the levels are what they are. Checking our local forecast this morning show rain for 5 out of the next 6 days...my boat is going to float right off the stands if this keeps up...ok not really but you get my drift.
Yeah, there’s a bike path along the Mississippi that I sometimes take to work. Usually in the spring it gets covered by a foot or two of water and is impassable for a couple weeks. This year it was under eight feet of water and has been closed for over a month.

I have a friend with a 50’ power boat. She had to scramble to launch it early this year, because the storage yard at the marina was going to be underwater.

I’m reading about flooding downstream in Illinois and Mississippi and Louisiana and I’m thinking “keep your sandbags up, we’re sending a bunch more water your way.”



Minne….On a quick sidestep, how is the new daysailer working out for the club that you picked up here in Michigan, has anyone taken it out yet??
They put it in on the 11th, but I was out of town and wasn’t able to help. I know they’ve gotten a couple sails in and it sounds like it’s been great, but I haven’t been able to get to it. I hoping to try it out on Saturday. I don’t think anyone has dared test the spinnaker yet :) Thanks for asking!
 

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This all sounds quite serious. Here is another take on the problem - at least in marinas that can still function:...........
That was immediately forwarded to several sailing buddies.
 

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Stinkpotters...
 

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Minne-
What Arcb said. In Chicago, they announced a 2-year plan about two years ago, to mitigate climate change. New paving is supposed to be done with a porous concrete, which will allow rainwater to seep directly into the ground instead of pooling or running off and flooding low areas. But, porous concrete and other "simple" solutions cost money.
In the last decade as home prices have come back up, every bit of lowland and swamp has been built up, minimal money spent on anything out of sight (like drainage) and between that and a slight weather shift, any plans the ACE made for flood control 50 years ago are totally trashed.
I expect large parts of the US south and east coast will become like Bangladesh: Places that should have been left as swamp, but the only places that poor people could afford to go. So, they will perennially be flooded out. Chicago raised their downtown street level one whole story after the Chicago Fire, to elevate it out of the swamp. Seattle did the same thing in what is now Old Town and Underground Seattle. And apparently Chattanooga did something similar after the Civil War, that's mainly undocumented.
These days people expect the Federal Funding Fairy will pay for it all, but they're getting rude surprises. And this is nothing new, really. There are towns, cities, in Europe that were great ports in the middle ages--and now are miles from the shore. Some continue as vigorous towns. Others, like Venice, are having to make hard choices today.
 

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....... And this is nothing new, really. There are towns, cities, in Europe that were great ports in the middle ages--and now are miles from the shore. Some continue as vigorous towns. Others, like Venice, are having to make hard choices today.
You’re exactly right. It start arguments, when this point is made. The shoreline will continue to change. Period. Plan for it, stop kidding ourselves we’ll stop it. Slowing down the inevitable is best case and still the odds are strongly against even pulling that off.
 

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It's not just the Great Lakes. This drydocked WWII submarine floated off it's stands..in Oklahoma of all places.

 
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