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Jon, did you even read the whole blog post?

I have USED Caribbean Safety & Security Net information, weighting it equal to UNDOC data....
Yes, I did...

I'm simply mystified why you would dismiss information presented in a forum such as this - and from people like capta and TQA who have been living and cruising the Caribbean for years - as having little or no value, and yet place such emphasis on national homicide statistics, that may or may not have any real relevance to the type of security issues cruisers are likely to face...

This tragedy in St Lucia was an attempted burglary that sadly turned deadly, after all, not an attempted homicide... Sounds like they did not even have any weapons, beyond the use of their fists... I just don't see these figures having any real value to cruisers, other than in the broadest possible sense, and one that doesn't differ significantly from most people's anecdotal 'impressions' of the region, anyway...
 

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It just doesn't make any sense to tailor your precautions to abstract statistics.

If some statistic tells me I have a 1 in 100 chance of being pickpocketed in New York and a 1 in 50 chance of being pickpocketed in Chicago, does that mean I take less precaution New York? I don't think so, at least not me.

Now, if someone tells me there has been a rash of pickpocketings on xyz street in the last week, then that is useful information. I do take extra precaution on that street, or maybe avoid it altogether.

The crime statistics for an entire island/city/region, except in a broad general sense, are totally useless to your overall safety at any one place and point in time.
 

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OK, let me install steel bars on all hatches, install motion sensors and siren, lock down EVERY SINGLE thing that can be taken (jerry cans, bimini covers, second anchor, spare halyards, mainsail etc etc), lock ladder so it can't be lowered, wrap razor wire round all lifelines, etc etc.

I would be very very secure.

Safety precautions against threat/crime take time and effort. They exist on a spectrum. You do not either have them or not have them. You absolutely need to tailor your response to the perceived threat.

I never said crime statistics were anything other than a broad measure. I (tried) to carefully explain that they were only a crude measure of comparative levels of crime. Yes, Trinidad is definitely less safe than the BVI.

I have USED Caribbean Safety & Security Net information, weighting it equal to UNDOC data....

vs

I'm simply mystified why you would dismiss information presented in a forum such as this
Jon, we are obviously unable to communicate well.......
 

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Which is why I combined other factors like embassy travel warnings and noonsite reports. Check the blog post for all the explanation.



This seems a massive massive assumption. Taking a look at my data and its clear that the Bahamas is about as relatively safe as 60% of the rest of the Caribbean. We can equally come to the conclusion that carrying guns make no difference and only can lead to the possibility of accidental death.

But let's not fall into a gun debate :)
Well, for someone who doesn't want to fall into a gun debate, you sure don't mind putting in your two cents about it.

And, yes, I'm making an assumption. But, I'm not pulling it out of my ass. I've got a lot of time in, in the Bahamas, working and playing. It's an assumption based on observations and experience, not something I've read somewhere.

And, statistical probabilities are fine, as long as your personal experience falls within them. It's when they don't, that it really doesn't matter a rat's ass what should have happened, statistically.

I don't mind taking risks. If you knew me at all, you would know that. (I even teach a course called "Managing the High Risk Taker"). But, when you take risks, especially for a living, you quickly learn that you can't just plan for what will probably happen.
 

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while I wouldn't say 'stupid' ....

I live in the Adirondacks (NYS) and people say things about leaving their house unlocked and car with the keys in it. It is a 'safer' place.. but to announce it to the world ...

My house is locked and has booby traps all over the place... not bombs.. just boobies.
My favorite one about your part of the country.
Lady from the big city visiting her country friend.
When leaving her car in the town center the country lady locked her door.
The city lady chided her and said. "Oh so even you guys have to lock your cars now"
The country lady said. "Yes it's awful this time of year when the vegetables ripen. If you don't lock your car they will fill if full of vegetables. I have too many of my own just like everyone else."
 

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The country lady said. "Yes it's awful this time of year when the vegetables ripen. If you don't lock your car they will fill if full of vegetables. I have too many of my own just like everyone else."
This is actually true, it happened to me.....
 

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OK, let me install steel bars on all hatches, install motion sensors and siren, lock down EVERY SINGLE thing that can be taken (jerry cans, bimini covers, second anchor, spare halyards, mainsail etc etc), lock ladder so it can't be lowered, wrap razor wire round all lifelines, etc etc.

I would be very very secure.

Safety precautions against threat/crime take time and effort. They exist on a spectrum. You do not either have them or not have them. You absolutely need to tailor your response to the perceived threat.

I never said crime statistics were anything other than a broad measure. I (tried) to carefully explain that they were only a crude measure of comparative levels of crime. Yes, Trinidad is definitely less safe than the BVI.



Jon, we are obviously unable to communicate well.......
No need to resort to such hyperbole, I don't see anyone here suggesting one needs to replace their lifelines with razor wire, or even that such tactics might still result in any sort of 'guarantee' of safety... :)

I simply disagree with your assertion:

As a new cruiser to the Caribbean, when you read these forums and other sites, its all signal vs noise. You can't glean any reliable information.
I think we've seen valuable, accurate input and perspective offered in this thread, in contributions from those who have cruised the Eastern Caribbean, and are in the vicinity of St Lucia as we speak... As we see virtually every day in forums like Sailnet, on matters related to various cruising destinations, from people who are actually in those places right now...

As opposed to those like myself, who hasn't been to St Lucia in years, and am sitting in New Jersey, looking out at my boat that's not going anywhere, anytime soon... :)


 

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Brrrrr..... Jon what's with your neighbour's boat? aground?

I'm envious of your moorage arrangement but right now above freezing temps look pretty good - even if the boat's a 25 min drive away in soft water...
 

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The Admiral is "anxious" about bears! Ha! Not a cruising issue you say? It depends on where you are cruising. We do some (a couple of weeks each year) camping from one of our canoes in "bear country". Our house is in "bear country".

I am trying to get her to head up into Canada for a long trip but the bear issue is a sore point. I have built a prototype of my "bear stick". It contains a motion sensor a strobe and a 90 db speaker. It is my plan that a couple of these placed around camp with a recording of 50 cal machine gun fire that plays in sync with the strobe will be just what it takes to startle and chase a curious bear that wanders into camp. I am having fun with this. The neighbors are not. :eek: It does keep the deer out of the garden.

Why wouldn't it make sense to have simple motion detectors activate lights and noise on the boat? If some opportunist was creeping aboard and all hell broke loose it might turn them around. Lighting things up would turn the tables as has been suggested here in another post. You would have the advantage of being able to see what is going on, on deck.

Short of remote controlled Claymore fenders it would be simple and inexpensive enough and might offer some protection.

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OK, let me install steel bars on all hatches, install motion sensors and siren, lock down EVERY SINGLE thing that can be taken (jerry cans, bimini covers, second anchor, spare halyards, mainsail etc etc), lock ladder so it can't be lowered, wrap razor wire round all lifelines, etc etc.

I would be very very secure.

Safety precautions against threat/crime take time and effort. They exist on a spectrum. You do not either have them or not have them. You absolutely need to tailor your response to the perceived threat.
OK, if your statistics are going to have any use, then tell me how you would differ your precautions between, say, Barbados and Bahamas -- just based on your statistics.
 

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OK, if your statistics are going to have any use, then tell me how you would differ your precautions between, say, Barbados and Bahamas -- just based on your statistics.
I didn't think the stats were to tell you to have your bazooka ready in some ports and your fire extinguisher in others... but maybe which places you would like to avoid --- or sail by at night.

I read a book where tha author mentioned saying by at night and when a boat appeared at on the horizon and seemed to change course towards her, she turned off the lights and changed course herself... Think it was pirates maybe looking for her.

Ironically the other person also turned off their lights --- maybe thinking SHE was the pirate

.... just like the residents of the ADKs don't always have to lock their doors sometimes we just park our vehciles outside the library and search the internet for zucchini bread recipes
 

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I guess someone needs to tell Mrs. Pratt that they have checked the crime statistics for St. Lucia, and statistically, they should have been fine.
 

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Brrrrr..... Jon what's with your neighbour's boat? aground?
Yes, this is the sort of extreme blow-out tides we can get in the back bays along the Jersey shore in the late fall and winter, with the strong W-NW winds behind a frontal passage... My own boat is probably sitting about 7-8 inches out of the water in that pic...

Sadly, that boat next door has been unattended since Sandy, that guy is one of the many in the neighborhood who simply walked away in the aftermath of the storm, and the bank now owns the property...
 
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