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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Shipping is due to start on Lake Superior tomorrow. Right now an ice breaker is clearing Duluth harbor of ice that is five-feet thick in places.

The captain of the ice-breaking tug said "Last year we were breaking ice on the 4th of May. This year will be worse. There's a lot of slips that will have to be opened up later in the season. I'm sure we' ll have ice with us way into June."

I was hoping to charter over Memorial Day weekend.... Sailing through ice, that would be a first for me!

As Duluth's icebreakers usher in spring, cargo shippers are anxious to begin work
 

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Captain Obvious
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Why Is Great Lakes Ice Nearing a Record High, While Arctic Ice Hits a Record Low? - weather.com

excerpt -

From accuweather

research suggests that as the Arctic gets warmer, and the temperature difference between the North Pole and the equator gets smaller, the jet stream's west-to-east winds get weaker. "As those winds get weaker, the jet stream tends to take a wavier path, more northward and southward around the Northern Hemisphere," she explained in a conference call last week.

Why is this important? Because when it moves more in a north-south direction, the jet stream's waves get bigger and slower, she added. "And so the weather they create also moves more slowly, and it tends to feel like on the surface that we're in a pattern that just seems to get stuck."

This would seem to explain why weather events like this year's persistent cold spells across the eastern U.S. have lasted so long. Though Francis is careful to add that "we can't say the rapidly warming Arctic caused this pattern this year," she says it's "a great example of the kind of pattern we can expect to see happen more often as the globe, and the Arctic in particular, continue to warm."


I have written on a couple of posts my own opinion that the Jet Stream is our problem , but, as some here have said, I am the "type of person who is inclined to believe it anyway"

This is also an informative historical study of ice on the Great Lakes. Cut to the chase, they have only frozen over maybe twice since 1900.

http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/pubs/fulltext/1990/19900009.pdf?origin=publication_detail
 

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Bristol 45.5 - AiniA
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I went a canoe trip in early May a number of years ago north or Toronto when the the ice was still in a bit on one lake. It was a warm day 20C and the ice was like crystal with all sorts of holes in it. When we got to where the ice piled up it was suddenly very cool, When we got through the ice it warmed up a lot. Fabulous day.
 

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Sea Sprite 23 #110 (20)
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not this crap again... take it to the gutter would you
 

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Discussion Starter · #7 ·
Sigh....

In the 1970s according to our government's best intelligence, the earth was heading into a new Ice Age, and ice caps would probably expand for hundreds of years.
Time and Newsweek ran cover stories about global cooling, but Time and Newsweek are popular media, not scientific journals. The popular media is generally a bad place to get your science information.

Climate science was in its infancy, but even then the consensus was that the planet would warm.

What were climate scientists predicting in the 1970s?
"However, these are media articles, not scientific studies. A survey of peer reviewed scientific papers from 1965 to 1979 show that few papers predicted global cooling (7 in total). Significantly more papers (42 in total) predicted global warming (Peterson 2008). The large majority of climate research in the 1970s predicted the Earth would warm as a consequence of CO2. Rather than 1970s scientists predicting cooling, the opposite is the case."

Remember when Al Gore said the global ice caps would be melted by 2012?
No I don't remember that. Could you post a link?

Anyway. Yes, huge ice on Superior this year and I still have two feet of snow in my garden. On the other hand two years ago it was 80ºF on St. Patrick's Day and we were grilling in the backyard.

I sent an email to the charter company asking them if they think they'll have the boats in and be operational on Memorial Day Weekend. Fingers crossed!
 

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Dirt Free
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The ice ages were obviously a result of over population and the warming trend that once turned southern Ontario into a tropical jungle were obviously caused by the aboriginal coal fired generating plants.
 
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Minnesail. Climate change denialists aside......... I've been sailing out of the western end of Lake Superior for over 20 years and have seen ice on the lake Memorial Day only once, maybe this will be the second one. But, the lake is ALWAYS cold that weekend. Nonetheless, those of use that appreciate the beauty of the lake and landscape even with a few ice floes about, still love to get out there. Temperature inversions at time of year can provide some amazing mirages. However, Palm trees won't be the issue. Take a comfy sleeping bag.

The lake has clearly been increasing in ice-free days over the last several decades. As climate models have suggested, the amplitude of annual temperature swings is increasing over the lakes region, average Lake Superior temps are steadily increasing but the variance around that that increase has been madding for local sailors. A few years ago I launched our boat near the first of April, as you've noted, this won't be one of those years. Nonetheless, it's one of the most amazing cruising grounds in North America and worth the sufferage of these crappy winters. (At least that is what I keep telling myself).
 

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I really wonder if the magnetic pole shifting has anything to do with it? I really do not know, really nothing I can do about it except wait for Mother Nature to open the door, so to say. Sitting here with below zero again just makes the anticipation all the better.
 

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Old soul
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I've been sailing Superior for 10 years now, and this is definitely the most ice I've seen so far. I'm sure we'll be seeing it deep in the bays into June. But once it starts to warm, and the wind gets going, the majority of it will break up pretty fast. We live right on the shoreline of Thunder Bay and I've been walking on thick, solid ice one day way offshore, and the next day it's open water.

I'm less concerned about the ice than I am about all the snow. I've got a two meter wall of it surrounding my boat right now. I was hoping to get on board early in the Spring so I could get a jump on projects. Right now, with the cold and snow, I don't expect to get on board until May.
 

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A "denialist" in the context of the global warming debate is simply a way of denigrating persons with a viewpoint other than your own.
No, it's not.
It is an accurate label. Sorta like when a dumbass is called a dumbass.

Quoting George Will on the climate change is like quoting Stephen Hawking on running a marathon. Smart guy, no real knowledge on the subject.
 

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The question is about ice on Lake Superior. Can I suggest that the irrational sceptics (like that better than "deniers"?) take your political fight elsewhere?
Mike you are correct that this off topic banter should be moved to off topic threads.
My off topic responses have been deleted.

That reminds me of swimming in the shallow end of Eagle Harbor on Keweenaw Peninsula's north shore Memorial day once in the 1980s. Perhaps I have not thawed from the experience, thus have not warmed up to global warming.
-CH
 
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