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Discussion Starter #1
With death rate of 385/million and climbing the EU and others are not going to be accepting US travelers. This death rate is a hard number that can’t be dismissed as an artifact of testing rates nor false positive/negative rates of testing. Crispr testing for the virions presence has been licensed by FDA but remains difficult to obtain on a routine basis. It has good accuracy unlike antibody testing which generally runs at ~20% false negative with some commonly used tests. So accepting countries are correct in wanting a negative test and 2 week quarantine. Add in risks of airline travel and limited flight availability and you have a nasty situation.
We continue to fonder around due to lack of a federal response with forced public health mandates (forced social distancing, masks, etc.) and absence of expanded testing, contact tracing and enforced quarantine. So one can expect the current rates per million to not fall in the foreseeable future. Lastly should a vaccine become available its expected to be 70-75% effective so with a third of the US population already saying they will not vaccinate there’s no expectation of herd immunity. Other governments can be expected to simply accept the financial loses associated with no US tourists and forgo the risks/complications/expense of allowing their entry.

I’m very downhearted . Please cheer me up. Where am I wrong in this analysis?
 

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Your less than 6 months into an event. Right now this seems the end-all-be-all. History will write this as a blip when put into the perspective of a decade or a generation. The pandemic of 1968 killed 100,000 people in the US. Pandemic of 1958 killled 116,000 in the US. Spanish Flu (1918) killed 675,000 in the US. Traveled continued after all of those events.
 

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Old soul
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It's true that we've seen similar pandemic events in the 20th century (and many before that). So what's different about Covid-19? Some say nothing. But there are a few factors that come to mind that might mean this a different, and new, situation.

#1. Travel. This is the first major pandemic event in the era of cheap and accessible international travel. Viruses don't fly (at least not very far). They travel with us, and we are traveling further and faster than ever in human history. This is true both internationally, and nationally.

#2. Risk tolerance. I believe we in the developed countries have lowered the risk levels we are willing to accept. Our wealth and power has reduced so many threats, from disease to accidents to security, that we have changed our expectations of safety. This pandemic is an example where our wealth can't easily protect us all, so we're scared -- more scared than we might have been in the past.
 

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Metacognition........

Understand why you know what you think you know and one’s own understanding may become clearer. Many statements of fact that are far from proven fact. No way one can know the effective rate of a vaccine yet, better or worse. We can’t know if the virus will mutate favorably or unfavorably, only what past viruses did.

I’m more optimistic, but we’re far from out of the woods. I recognize we don’t know what we don’t know. I choose to relax.
 

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The OP's question is like the 'elephant in the room' for all of us that routinely cruise & cross an international border. It was easy to accept the CN closure this year, but next year and beyond do concern us.
While things will certainly stabilize in 5 or 10 years, that's a long time to wait, for us present day retirees.
 

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The situation is improving simply because the virus is spreading. The ironic thing is NYC May end up coming out of this first because it has already killed so many of its potential victims. Every day we have more folks who have been exposed and developed or demonstrated some form of immunity.

Having spent the last few months in undeveloped countries Ihave to disagree that the West is more risk adverse. Some of the Caribbean islands took this VERY seriously.,

Maybe too feel that it will fade away in a few years but in the meantime is screwing with my retirement. PITA.

I remain deeply concerned about this virus providing the opportunity for certain operators to grossly invade our privacy and limit our ability to move. Truly a dystopian year for me.
 

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Captain Obvious
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When President Biden takes office, things will change. Or if by some unlikely miracle the current occupant of the white house is gotten impeached, or contracted the virus, and his assistant, and so forth and a competent replacement installed. Once that happens, our curve will begin to match Europe, and with the arrival of vaccine, this nightmare will fade.

Until then its the Trump Pandemic Nightmare. Censor this if you will, it is just simply true.
 

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Old soul
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...I remain deeply concerned about this virus providing the opportunity for certain operators to grossly invade our privacy and limit our ability to move. Truly a dystopian year for me.
This has concerned me from the get-go. With authoritarian tendencies on the rise almost everywhere in the so-called "free world" I fear what lessons those in power are learning.
 

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When President Biden takes office, things will change. Or if by some unlikely miracle the current occupant of the white house is gotten impeached, or contracted the virus, and his assistant, and so forth and a competent replacement installed. Once that happens, our curve will begin to match Europe, and with the arrival of vaccine, this nightmare will fade.

Until then its the Trump Pandemic Nightmare. Censor this if you will, it is just simply true.
If it's what you say, I love it.
 

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We're sitting in Carriacou with these same thoughts running through our minds. It seems our charter business is finished, after all, at my age I don't have a lot of years to wait this thing out.
The planned opening of the airport here July 1st has been postponed indefinitely and I must say I am relieved. I wasn't looking forward to an influx of potential virus carriers, especially those Americans who won't wear masks or social distance because it somehow infringes on their civil liberties. Wasn't our country founded on the idea of protecting all its citizens from potential harm and injustice?
Then there's the problem of going to Trinidad when it opens and the worry that Grenada will close it's borders in the fall because of a second wave of the virus and we won't be able to return.
I don't care a lot about quarantines, 15 days in Trinidad, 15 days to return to Grenada, but I'd hate to spend the rest of my sailing days in quarantine everywhere I wish to sail.
The Bahamas has opened up for private planes and high end charters I've read, but I'm not sure how it works. Perhaps they fly in on private planes, go directly to the yacht, and aren't allowed ashore anywhere? Does everyone wear masks?
I also think how difficult it must be for those who have stored their boats down here and are unable to get back to them. Some are out of work and storage fees are mounting, yet the prospect of selling a boat no buyer can get to is very low, so they are in a very difficult situation indeed.
If only I han't thrown away that crystal ball !
 
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Unfortunately there is growing evidence that hard immunity may not be a achievable. Some studies are showing that antibodies do not linger in the body for more than a few weeks. It is also by no means certain that a effective vaccine will be available anytime soon. Even if there is a vaccine, there seems to be a large and growing anti vax movement in the USA. Once there is a vaccine it would not surprise me if travellers were required to show proof of vaccination before being allowed entry into many countries.

The politicization of the pandemic and measures to control it are not serving the US well, and the world is taking note. The Canada/US border is currently closed to discressionary travel until July 26, and likely much longer. There is very little public appetite for opening the border. Here in BC one of our major industries is tourism, and it is taking a beating, but still most people understand that it is important to keep it shut down.

The government is allowing US travellers across the border if they are transiting directly to Alaska but they are expected to take a direct route and minimize contact with locals. Reports of some of these Alaska travellers playing tourist once they enter the country is causing some to call for even tighter restrictions. I spoke to the operator of an Inn in the Gulf Islands who said he received a phone call from a guy from Texas who wanted to book a room. He was up front about exploiting a "loophole" by saying he was going to alaska, but making a few stops along the way! There are also reports of US flagged pleasure boats sneaking across the border to go cruising. Unfortunately this has caused people to look upon ALL US flagged boats with suspicion and even hostility. Patrols by CBSA and Coast Guard have been stepped up, and reporting lines set up. People are angry because we have followed the guidelines and restricted our travel to other communities, and it has worked. The Idea that all the hard won progress could be put at risk by a few foreign travellers is galling to us!

We look forward to the time when out tourism industry can get back on it's feet, but in the meantime we have earned our way into phase 3 reopening and we are now free to cautiously travel within our own province. Personally I am looking forward to exploring Desolation Sound without the hordes of American boats that descend upon the region every summer!



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Discussion Starter #12
Thank you for your responses but unfortunately they don’t cheer me up. In fact dig the hole deeper. Hopefully politely will correct what I think are seriously misstatements in above posts.
NY numbers improved NOT because it killed high risk victims. It killed a small percentage of total population so there remain plenty of potential victims in NY even now. I am currently in Massachusetts. It was fourth for quite awhile and now has even better numbers than NY. Both states had an initial poor reactions. More so for NYC than NYS than MA. However the culture in these states and Conn is such that public health instructions were followed and continue to be followed. This was and currently is not true for much of the country. I believe that will remain true regardless of Biden v Trump outcome. The arrogance and ignorance of my fellow citizens is appalling. That being the case mandatory policies are required as well as mandatory contact tracing/quarantine. This has occurred in the past( think Typhoid Mary sitting on a island in the east river) but unlikely at present.
A vaccine may mitigate impact but for reasons I pointed out in the OP is not going to be the solution without appropriate public policy.
Agree much remains unknown and it’s encouraging that the antigenicity of the spike material seems to be preserved in the face of strain mutations but the past predicts the future. There are no 100% effective vaccines for any of the viruses in the covid family. In fact none for those causing prior epidemics. Those were controlled by public health policy.
So I’m left with a boat on the hard in the hurricane zone I can’t get to. I agree this to will pass but not anytime soon. Please post something fact based that will cheer me up.
 

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The solution will be how to keep people from dying, not from contracting the disease at all. An effective vaccine would presumably do both, but does not need to. If it's effective enough to lower the death rate, we're done. To date, around 5% of known cases have perished in the US. What's the multiplier to get to actual cases, not just tested cases? The death rate is fairly low, nevertheless, tragic. It will not need to get to zero for all to open up.

It pains me to see this issue politicized, but so many just can't help themselves. It's solely about creating a point of view that puts one's own team or keeps one's own team in power. Sick really. Govt failed. All levels, all parties. They were all rank amateurs and this was clearly predicted to happen one day. No faith in any of them, but I do think the system learned a lesson.
 

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Please post something fact based that will cheer me up.
From your previous posts I gather you have a wonderful spouse, a beautiful home in a lovely location, and you appear to be financially quite comfortable. Based on your demeanour here I assume you have a number of quality real friends (not just the virtual type), and have many other interests and activities in your life.

You, my virtual friend, have every reason to remain cheery.
 

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Please post something fact based that will cheer me up.
I agree with all your points, except I am more optimistic that a new administration will be more effective (though your concerns are duly noted). So I cannot cheer you up.

Au contraire, mon ami: I think the title of your posting is too narrow: It should be changed from

"Is international sailing for US citizens a thing of the past"
to
"Is international TRAVEL for US citizens a thing of the past"

For 28 out of the last 30 years we have gone to Europe for Xmas/New Year's. I am pretty sure that this will not happen this year. We Americans will be treated like pariahs in the whole world and not let in anywhere, except by the poorest countries that are desperate enough for our $s to take the risk of infection over the risk of becoming even more destitute.

And I cannot blame them for it.
 

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My sense is we are perhaps still in the middle of the spread of this virus... and spread is at least partially due to not taking the measures to prevent spread which we know.... PPE no close contact. Contact is at the heart of commerce and leisure.

So perhaps if there was a very reliable instant test people who were free of the virus (in the stage which is contagious) than we CAN have contact. If I am negative and a bunch of my friends are also negative... why can't we have normal activities? The danger is contracting C19 from a carrier. So we need to find every carrier and isolate THEM... and treat them.

We are told to use a breathing mask so we don't spread infection to OTHERS.... But if we don't have infection the mask is not preventing spread. Then the issue is... does breathing through a mask reduce the risk of contracting to 0? Where does this virus live where we cant contact it and become ill? Hand railings? Door knobs?... things we normally touch??? We need to know PRECISELY all the ways this virus spreads... and then conduct our lives to not put ourselves in situation were virus is present.

Too much mystery about how this virus works. Sure everyone understands that virus can become air born when expelled by coughing breathing and spitting,

Realistically the US has 300 million people and 125,000 have died. That means that 299+ million are virus free and a few 10s of thousands are ill with the disease or asymptomatic carriers. This reminds me of auto death stats... except there is less we can do to safe healthy and get better when we catch the bug. And it appears that being healthy is a good way to not be a victim.

I feel bad for my grand children... and their grand mother as well. But not being able to travel is draconian and absurd. Travel should require a clean bill of health and then you should be free to travel.
 

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We are told to use a breathing mask so we don't spread infection to OTHERS.... But if we don't have infection the mask is not preventing spread. Then the issue is... does breathing through a mask reduce the risk of contracting to 0? Where does this virus live where we cant contact it and become ill? Hand railings? Door knobs?... things we normally touch??? We need to know PRECISELY all the ways this virus spreads... and then conduct our lives to not put ourselves in situation were virus is present.
I think one thing most people forget about wearing a mask is that it keeps those who wear it from touching their face.
Many (most?) of us have unconscious habits and many of them are hand to face. So a hand that just touched a hand rail, door knob or other frequently handled and potential virus path can transmit the virus to our faces, eyes, nose, mouth or whatever.
Wearing a mask protects everyone and I can't see any intelligent argument against it. What happened to Americans banding together for the good of all, as we did in WWII? Would those same people who protest against wearing masks today have protested against rationing as was necessary in WWII?
I just don't get it.
 

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...should a vaccine become available its expected to be 70-75% effective...
Where do you get this number? The flu vaccine that people typically get each fall is only about 50%-60% effective, low enough that some people debate whether it should be called a "vaccine." I wouldn't expect a COVID-19 vaccine to be any better than that, but we won't know until one is developed (IF one is developed, which is a very big "if").

In any case, even a 50% effective vaccine gets it down to where we don't have to close down the entire world anymore. Especially since, as it spreads, it is likely that many people will develop natural resistance to it -- as humans have to most diseases over the millenia.

It pains me to see this issue politicized, but so many just can't help themselves... Sick really.
I agree. Sick and stupid to try to turn this into a political issue. As you say, though, many just can't help themselves. You really have to kind of feel sorry for people like that.
 

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Old soul
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We are told to use a breathing mask so we don't spread infection to OTHERS.... But if we don't have infection the mask is not preventing spread. Then the issue is... does breathing through a mask reduce the risk of contracting to 0? Where does this virus live where we cant contact it and become ill? Hand railings? Door knobs?... things we normally touch??? We need to know PRECISELY all the ways this virus spreads... and then conduct our lives to not put ourselves in situation were virus is present.
I know you get this, but to point out the obvious, the thing about mask wearing is, as you say, to protect others. Non-medical grade masks do almost nothing to protect the wearer from getting the virus, but they are reasonably effective at halting airboard transmission. So wearing a mask is similar to physical distancing; it puts a barrier in place that reduces the odds of transmission.

If everyone wore a mask it would reduce transmission significantly, much like if everyone maintained a 2 metre physical distance.

Realistically the US has 300 million people and 125,000 have died. That means that 299+ million are virus free and a few 10s of thousands are ill with the disease or asymptomatic carriers. This reminds me of auto death stats... except there is less we can do to safe healthy and get better when we catch the bug. And it appears that being healthy is a good way to not be a victim.
Actually, the USA has 2.6 million confirmed cases of Covid-19. Mortality is 126,000, but so far only about 4.5% of cases result in mortality. So this puts your calculation at 297.4 million as virus free. Of course, we don't know the actual infection rate. Many experts are applying a factor of 10x, so the actual infection numbers maybe as high as 26 million.

I feel bad for my grand children... and their grand mother as well. But not being able to travel is draconian and absurd. Travel should require a clean bill of health and then you should be free to travel.
I wouldn't call it absurd, but it is drastic. This virus spreads because it hitches a ride on us. And the problem is that many people go unsymptomatic, but still carry and presumably spread the disease. Until we have an effective vaccine and/or achieve a reasonable level of herd immunity, neither of which are guaranteed, we will have to find ways to live with this virus.
 

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Travel should require a clean bill of health and then you should be free to travel.
They are some countries issuing a sort of 'clean bill of health' document and before they could be issued in any quantity, fake ones were being sold at a faster rate than the governments could issue real ones. I have no doubt that would happen in the US as well, so I don't see that as a viable solution. But I have none better.
 
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