SailNet Community banner

21 - 40 of 89 Posts

·
Registered
Joined
·
21,633 Posts
Where do you get this number? The flu vaccine that people typically get each fall is only about 50%-60% effective, low enough that some people debate whether it should be called a "vaccine." I wouldn't expect a COVID-19 vaccine to be any better than that, but we won't know until one is developed.....
We don't know, but I think comparing the effectiveness of a regular flu vaccine, which requires guessing on strain a year in advance is not the same as targeting a specific current coronavirus. That said, this virus could mutate, like they all do, and move away from the vaccine's effective range. It seems Dr. Fauci is "cautiously optimistic". Good enough for me.

A study was done on the regular Flu vaccine, which varies in it's effectiveness from year to year (because of the strain guessing). It found that it had a meaningful reduction in Flu severity, even when didn't prevent the Flu. Specifically, if you caught the Flu anway, after being vaccinated, you have a 37% lower risk of being hospitalized and an 82% lower risk of being in the ICU (ventilator). If 82% fewer people go to the ICU, that means and even greater percent survive. Get that much done on Covid-19 and life moves on, even though many might still get temporarily sick.


We only need to keep people from dying and over running the hospitals, we do not need to prevent everyone from getting sick. The later is impossible.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
7,060 Posts
Discussion Starter #22
Recent literature suggests breathing and talking are the major modes of transmission not objects nor even coughing or sneezing. Of course coughing sneezing, intubation and other medical procedures place a much greater viral load in the air but everyone is constantly breathing but not constantly doing the other activities.
My estimates on vaccine effectiveness come from a Dr.Fauci public statement.
Our death rate per million is currently 4th highest in the world and we’re rising in spite of all the money spent here.
People focus on mortality but morbidity is equally important. The incidence of what was initially thought to be an encephalopathy with HA, confusion and seizures seems to really be an encephalitis. Even after clearing the virus physicians are seeing post covid patients with persistent neurological impairment. Of serious concern is persistent cognitive impairment. Survivors of the 1918 pandemic years later continued to have serious problems. Profound lethargy, a ParkinsonIan illness and cognitive impairment . I worked at the Boston VA during training. In that setting given many of the victims were in the military I studied and cared for some of that cohort. The illness is called encephalitis lethargica. Given virus has been isolated from covid brain and CSF I’m concerned something similar will occur again. Encephalitis lethargica struck young otherwise healthy people who survived the 1918 flu.

Public health measures will control this illness. American culture is uniquely poorly suited to respond appropriately. Another legacy of western expansion and rugged individualism . God bless John Wayne.

Mike I picked up the IPad while having a cup of tea. I just came in from fly fishing in my backyard. My backyard is a town park they dump 15000 trout in every year. I caught a brown bigger then my net on a fly I just tied this morning with a rod I inherited from my dad. I’m just whining. Have too many friends dealing with much greater issues than my trivial concerns. You’re a good soul to remind me of that. Still, although I’m very proud to be an American sometimes I’m just fed up with what’s going on here now.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
7,060 Posts
Discussion Starter #23
In the OP pointed out there’s many foci with covid 19 that are “preserved”. All prospective vaccines are aimed at those sites. To date there’s no evidence those sites mutate.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
7,060 Posts
Discussion Starter #24
As pointed out in the OP unless you’re testing for virus in very close proximity to departure and there’s been no exposure during transport testing alone is not a “clean bill of health”. Hence crispr testing plus immediate strict quarantine is required.
Given people are very highly infectious transmitters up to 2 days before first symptom a normal temperature is meaningless as a sole indication of whether that individual is a vector.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
4,930 Posts
They are some countries issuing a sort of 'clean bill of health' document and before they could be issued in any quantity, fake ones were being sold at a faster rate than the governments could issue real ones. I have no doubt that would happen in the US as well, so I don't see that as a viable solution. But I have none better.
A Clean Bill VISA issued by gov stamped in passport.... anything can be forged I suppose.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
11 Posts
These same sorts of discussions are extremely active in the commercial airline world among international airports, airlines, gov't agencies, and trade associations. The challenge with the "clean bill of health" stamp is that it becomes obsolete essentially as soon as you walk out of the doctor's office or State Dept. consulate and encounter any other individual. Some airlines (e.g., Etihad) were giving blood tests at the airport for flights into certain destinations. So basically, those stamps have a half life of 30 seconds.... Where you see staff taking passengers (or anyone's) temperatures, those tests fail to capture asymptomatic individuals.

Some US carriers (most recently American) began asking passengers to submit questionnaires and declarations about their state of health. Who among us believes that all of those forms will be truthful and accurate?

For travel the rest of this year, the EU just put the US on the same "Do Not Travel Here" list with Brazil and Russia. That's a sad state of affairs.
 

·
Master Mariner
Joined
·
8,225 Posts
For travel the rest of this year, the EU just put the US on the same "Do Not Travel Here" list with Brazil and Russia. That's a sad state of affairs.
But certainly well deserved.
 

·
Senior Member
Joined
·
11,785 Posts
Recent literature suggests breathing and talking are the major modes of transmission not objects nor even coughing or sneezing. Of course coughing sneezing, intubation and other medical procedures place a much greater viral load in the air but everyone is constantly breathing but not constantly doing the other activities.
My estimates on vaccine effectiveness come from a Dr.Fauci public statement.
Our death rate per million is currently 4th highest in the world and we’re rising in spite of all the money spent here.
People focus on mortality but morbidity is equally important. The incidence of what was initially thought to be an encephalopathy with HA, confusion and seizures seems to really be an encephalitis. Even after clearing the virus physicians are seeing post covid patients with persistent neurological impairment. Of serious concern is persistent cognitive impairment. Survivors of the 1918 pandemic years later continued to have serious problems. Profound lethargy, a ParkinsonIan illness and cognitive impairment . I worked at the Boston VA during training. In that setting given many of the victims were in the military I studied and cared for some of that cohort. The illness is called encephalitis lethargica. Given virus has been isolated from covid brain and CSF I’m concerned something similar will occur again. Encephalitis lethargica struck young otherwise healthy people who survived the 1918 flu.

Public health measures will control this illness. American culture is uniquely poorly suited to respond appropriately. Another legacy of western expansion and rugged individualism . God bless John Wayne.

Mike I picked up the IPad while having a cup of tea. I just came in from fly fishing in my backyard. My backyard is a town park they dump 15000 trout in every year. I caught a brown bigger then my net on a fly I just tied this morning with a rod I inherited from my dad. I’m just whining. Have too many friends dealing with much greater issues than my trivial concerns. You’re a good soul to remind me of that. Still, although I’m very proud to be an American sometimes I’m just fed up with what’s going on here now.
I understand how you feel. I have ultimate hope that we will eventually pull out of this if/ when national and rational leadership changes. The EU does not swallow nor accept the bs that is spun out of the White House and therefore are walling us off , by isolating us for their own protection.

American look for easy fixes.....that is not going to possible in this case.
 

·
Old soul
Joined
·
4,497 Posts
My estimates on vaccine effectiveness come from a Dr.Fauci public statement.
I was about to offer the same. Fauci is guesstimating a 70-75% effectiveness. He also said this will be too low given the vaccine hesitancy level in the US population. He's too kind. I'd call it anti-vaccine idiots.

...The incidence of what was initially thought to be an encephalopathy with HA, confusion and seizures seems to really be an encephalitis. Even after clearing the virus physicians are seeing post covid patients with persistent neurological impairment. Of serious concern is persistent cognitive impairment.
It's morbidly fascinating, isn't it. This virus seems to lead to far more than a simple respiratory infection for some patients. A small percentage of very young children are reported having serious inflamatory reactions, and encephalitis of various forms is cropping up, producing lasting neurological impacts. This is definitely not just a nasty flu.

Mike I picked up the IPad while having a cup of tea. I just came in from fly fishing in my backyard. My backyard is a town park they dump 15000 trout in every year. I caught a brown bigger then my net on a fly I just tied this morning with a rod I inherited from my dad. I’m just whining. Have too many friends dealing with much greater issues than my trivial concerns. You’re a good soul to remind me of that. Still, although I’m very proud to be an American sometimes I’m just fed up with what’s going on here now.
(y):)

No doubt, we're all feeling a bit whinny. Me included. But this too shall pass. I'm trying to see the silver lining in it all. I've got a small motorcycle that I'm going to try and get road worthy. If this works I'm going to become a land cruiser for a few months, visiting friends and family across this vast country of mine.

Most of us here have many good options, and for that I feel blessed (which is saying something as a professed atheist ;)).
 

·
S/V Interlude, PSC31
Joined
·
292 Posts
To all,

Other than a discussion of which anchor is best, there will not be a more heated discussion than this topic. We have our opinions and our concerns but must be concerned mostly with living life and not being infected with fear. We are not stupid and actually during severe flu years have always avoided crowds, washed hands regularly and stayed away from sick people. There is so much misinformation and fear mongering going on it is difficult to make good risk assessment. I have included a link to THE ONLY site we trust for information to determine best protocols. The Swiss have always been known for their balanced approach to many things. Try not to dismiss it and please spend some time with the data and statements presented. It certainly will help the OP feel better! If you find it useful please pass it on and keep it where it can be found easily on this thread. We all could use some well founded information so we can then form our own plans instead of being told what our plans are.


....meanwhile we at least can explore the 11,000 miles of shoreline we call home waters and
still never be more than a two days sail form our slip. We are very grateful and also mindful.

respectfully,
Interlude
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
7,060 Posts
Discussion Starter #32 (Edited)
Interlude. I’ve only posted factual information. I’m trained as a board certified neuro epidemiologist. I do not fear monger. I state facts and clearly point out my opinions as a separate entity. Thank you for your referencing that site. There is a core group of posters here who are international cruisers. There’s also a group who enjoy international chartering. Either from being thousands of miles away from our boats or being unable to fly to a foreign charter fleet your suggestion isn’t applicable. Sad but true.
Social sites such as this do help providing some degree of emotional support. So far this thread has not devolved into the muck but has been helpful to me and I sincerely hope others as well. I hope the moderators allow it to continue as long as it continues to offer that very needed support.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
4,930 Posts
Re the stats related to this pandemic.
What are the ages of the people who die attributed to C19? Much is made that C19 can be fatal to people with "underlying" medical conditions. It seems that people with serious medical conditions have a high risk of dying as their body is already in a compromised condition. So what IS the cause of their death?
I am curious about the age and health related stats for those reported as dying from C19.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
7,060 Posts
Discussion Starter #34
This is a extremely difficult issue to pin down with accuracy at this point in time. Crude numbers are available from multiple sources with a simple google search. However, it’s understood they are crude estimates. To elucidate will refer to a a paper I published on death certification of stroke as cause of death in the Framingham heart study cohort. There’s several issues
person dies of pneumonia because they can’t swallow due to prior stroke. Did they die of stroke or pneumonia? Covid person dies from myocardial infarction because they can’t oxygenate. Did they die of M.I. or covid. Person with COPD survives Covid and is discharged. Dies two days afterward secondary to their debilitated state. What killed them?
person never had CT or MRI and dies at home or in ER. Covid person dies at home or ED and is never tested nor autopsied. What killed them?
person is misdiagnosed.
death certificate doesn’t reflect clinical record.
theres no clinical record or it’s lost.
sample used to abstract statistics is confounded by bias or is inadequate in truly representative numbers.

So there’s a host of confounders that requires very time consuming, detailed review by a reviewer educated in the disease, stastical principles and epidemiological knowledge. At present although data is being collected and published I’m fairly sure over time it will be reviewed and more accurate assessment generated.

Some known current confounders
Death rate is higher in males. But being male May not be the cause. Rather males are less healthy with more co morbidities than females. Correlation is not causation.
Deaths occur from cytokine storm. Cytokine storm more likely as person has aged. So storm is associated with age and death. However, co morbidities increase with age as well. Which is the correct attributed risk factor for death? How do you assign relative contributions to death? Multifactorial analysis requires sophistication and prior knowledge of all risk factors as well as a large cohort to be analyzed.
At present published data should be viewed as established correlations but its still to soon to view as truly established causative factors with known pathogenesis.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
21,633 Posts
Re the stats related to this pandemic.
What are the ages of the people who die attributed to C19? Much is made that C19 can be fatal to people with "underlying" medical conditions. It seems that people with serious medical conditions have a high risk of dying as their body is already in a compromised condition. So what IS the cause of their death?
I am curious about the age and health related stats for those reported as dying from C19.
There is significant data available in NY on this, right down to the county level. Hypertension is the number one, followed by diabetes. COVID is a syndrome that causes systemic inflammation, not just Flu like symptoms. I think it's abundantly clear that COVID killed these people, but they were fatally susceptible, due to the co-morbidity. 40% of fatalities were over the age of 80, 66% over age 70 and 85% over age 60, where having one of these co-morbidities is also more likely.

Notable that high cholesterol is the third highest co-morbidity.

 

·
S/V Interlude, PSC31
Joined
·
292 Posts
Interlude. I’ve only posted factual information. I’m trained as a board certified neuro epidemiologist. I do not fear monger. I state facts and clearly point out my opinions as a separate entity. Thank you for your referencing that site. There is a core group of posters here who are international cruisers. There’s also a group who enjoy international chartering. Either from being thousands of miles away from our boats or being unable to fly to a foreign charter fleet your suggestion isn’t applicable. Sad but true.
Social sites such as this do help providing some degree of emotional support. So far this thread has not devolved into the muck but has been helpful to me and I sincerely hope others as well. I hope the moderators allow it to continue as long as it continues to offer that very needed support.

Hey Outbound,
I am not referring to this forum as fear mongering, but rather the typical media outlets, nor was I inferring your information was incorrect, actually the contrary. The site i referenced, if you have spent time with it, you will find is very fact based with all statements fully referenced with the ability to not only know what research has been done but actually read the research., It was a refreshing change from most information and was given so many here could have much data in a single location.

I only mentioned our cruising close to home as it is the only option out there at present for us and even then some state's borders had been closed to cruisers until recently. We remain very mindful of the small coastal communities that line those coasts and their relative inability to deal with any major health issues but also their dependance upon the boating community. We have been very grateful for this site's support and the information freely shared and hope most will find the link we provided informative. We have always sought to understand rather than being told how to understand. It's why we don't watch TV!

Now how about what anchor is best!
 

·
Old soul
Joined
·
4,497 Posts
Interlude, I looked at the link to the Swiss Propaganda Research, or as it was renamed in May 2020, the Swiss Policy Research, and read through their "facts about covid-19". Knowing nothing about them I read with interest, but as I moved through their long list of "facts" I grew increasingly wary. Something didn't seem right. Many of their "facts" are opinion, and a lot of the "facts" are supported by one cherry-picked study.

So then I went looking for background on this organization. Very quickly I found lots of criticism of this site, with many labelling it as a perveyor of conspiracy theory and pseudo-science.

Based on my quick research I would not list this as a trusted source.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,403 Posts
We only need to keep people from dying and over running the hospitals, we do not need to prevent everyone from getting sick. The later is impossible.
I agree completely. I work for the college of medicine of one of Florida's state universities. I am not a professor, nor a doctor. I just work in IT. But being on the staff means that I am on all of the e-mail lists, and get reports pretty much daily about what is going on. In particular, we get information from the hospitals that are associated with the university, concerning their capacity to handle more cases.

At this point, even after the easing of restrictions and the expected increase in cases, they are nowhere near being over-run. They are, in fact, only slightly more busy than average for this time of year. I understand that it is a bit worse in the Miami area, but still nowhere near over-run. That's the good news. At least in Florida, if you get sick, there are hospital beds and ventilators aplenty for your treatment.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
4,930 Posts
There is so much "info" to sort thru... and when you have no expertise... it's often a matter TRUST BUT VERIFY.

I think there is BS coming from both sides of this issue.

But MY take away is that healthy people's risk is fairly low. Seniors typically have chronic conditions which raises their risk. I happen to be a senior but I have no chronic "underlying" conditions. I am healthy and my
"numbers" are normal. My senior issues are related to arthritis, diminishing vision, hearing, balance, old dentisty and balance. It didn't help that I had spine surgery which has damaged my sciatic nerve.... but it is (too) slowly recovering. My nerve might recover before I pass. ;-)
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
7,060 Posts
Discussion Starter #40
Some months ago posted the critical balance is between having a functional society and economy and preserving life. With further evolution of the syndrome associated with covid would add persistent morbidity from the illness to that equation. Unfortunately many the young adults and others with no known risk factors assume they may get sick but it won’t be a significant illness. Now we know even young children may become critically ill. What is unknown is the incidence of persistent neurologic damage from the illness. I wouldn’t be so sanguine S. Trust but verify is always wise. Understanding the sub divisions of risk is also wise to include in your thinking. Such as the concept of relative risk as being different from absolute risk. I have risk factors but live in a low risk state, very low risk town and follow ID guidelines. So my risk of death if I get covid is higher than average but my risk of getting covid is lower than average.
The current continuation of the first wave has a higher proportion of the 30-50 y.o. segment. Be interesting to see outcome numbers.
 
21 - 40 of 89 Posts
Top