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All sources are fairly consistent in predicting more named storms and hurricanes in the Caribbean and western Atlantic.
Has this caused you to change your thinking, plans or travel?
 

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Judging by the temperatures here at this time of year, it feels as though the Atlantic to our east is colder than usual. I haven't chased down the appropriate products, but if true, I'm guessing the EC season will begin later than usual. we will see.
 

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I wouldn't plan to be in the hurricane box, whether predicted above or below an average hurricane season.

It seems to me, all I've heard for a decade now is the prediction of above average. Has it always actually happened? I bet it's nuanced, in how many major storms, how many make landfall, etc. Not sure the number of storms is as relevant as where they go.
 

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I have seen the predictions for more tropical storms and hurricanes than usual this year. I have also noticed that the water temperatures here in Florida seem to me to be warmer earlier than I remember (already in the 80s!)... However, the predictions do not tell us where the storms will be, and predictions are just educated guesses.

When I was teaching sailing, students would sometimes get panicked over a prediction of rain at any time during the course. I would tell them not to worry. If I based my sailing on the weather forecast, I would rarely be able to leave the mooring.

My PLAN is to bring the boat south this fall. My wife was "retired" in November, so there is the opportunity for us to make the trip together. This plan has been scrubbed for various reasons 4 times before - but this time for sure!. I feel like Bullwinkle pulling the rabbit out of his hat;
 

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I've been living with almost the same hurricane forecast "predicting more named storms and hurricanes in the Caribbean and western Atlantic." since my arrival here in 1978. They always seem to meet their predictions or revise their predictions to suit, as the season progresses, but rarely does any of it impact the areas outside of the normal historical tracks. When the storms do, they are labeled "the storm of the century" or "super storm" or any other name to draw public awareness away from the fact that that one got away from them.
The short term forecasting has improved immensely, after all, there was a time when we knew the storm was going to hit us for sure was when it hit the other side of the island.

but the long term forecasting seems little more than hocus-pocus to me, even with all the technology available today.
 
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All sources are fairly consistent in predicting more named storms and hurricanes in the Caribbean and western Atlantic.
Has this caused you to change your thinking, plans or travel?
Pretty sure they have said this the last 4 years.

Besides currently hurricanes aren't even on my radar far as travel goes. All there is is the ...........................VIRUS!
 

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My wanderlust has faded to the point that tedious long passages no longer entice me. The COVID19 conditions have made it more so. I now enjoy a nice sail to a nearby port where a three hour weather window is sufficient. If a Hurricane should threaten the area I have plenty of time to get back to my homeport and make preparations.

BTW I just finished INTO THE STORM by Tristram Korten about the El Faro sinking and another ship that sank in the same Hurricane. One crew perished and the other was saved. Reminded me that hubris and luck do not play well together.
 

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All sources are fairly consistent in predicting more named storms and hurricanes in the Caribbean and western Atlantic.
Has this caused you to change your thinking, plans or travel?
The Covid virus issues involving closed borders and the possibility of not being able to return caused us to change our plans two weeks ago, which is why I abandoned previous plan to store boat in Trinidad and sailed over to St Thomas last week and why we’re sailing north to New England and out of the hurricane belt on Sunday. Leaving the boat trapped and/or me stuck indefinitely in the hurricane zone isn’t considered a logical option for us, no matter how many hurricanes are predicted.
 

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Like Ken we are sailing back June 11, weather permitting.

We have 2 issues. If this was a “normal” year We would leave the boat in Grenada and spend the season in Canada. Being we can’t go to Canada we could stay in the islands and move South for a storm. However with the virus we may want to move South only to find Grenada and Trinidad closed.

We won’t reliably be able to get to our Canadian cabin because of the virus lockdowns. We don’t have another place to stay in the USA. So we will take our house with us to the USA. Then dodge hurricanes there.

That seems like the plan with the most flexibility and reliability of occurring.
 

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Like Ken we are sailing back June 11, weather permitting.

We have 2 issues. If this was a “normal” year We would leave the boat in Grenada and spend the season in Canada. Being we can’t go to Canada we could stay in the islands and move South for a storm. However with the virus we may want to move South only to find Grenada and Trinidad closed.

We won’t reliably be able to get to our Canadian cabin because of the virus lockdowns. We don’t have another place to stay in the USA. So we will take our house with us to the USA. Then dodge hurricanes there.

That seems like the plan with the most flexibility and reliability of occurring.
It would have been nice to meet up. Perhaps another year.
Good luck on your passage and may the east coast storms miss you.
 

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Discussion Starter #12
Looking at options seems we’re stuck with leaving boat in St.Lucia. Thought about relaunching and going to Clarke’s. But feel travel restrictions/risks, what’s involved in relaunching/redecommissioning makes this unappealing. Thought about heading to western Caribbean and explored details but bailed on that as well. So will just wait it out. Although things are opening up yards are behind in their schedules. Still a fair number of boats on the hard and wouldn’t be surprised if some don’t launch. Probably in response to the downstream economic conditions from covid. An early season storm will have them spinning.
 

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Covid 19 and the resulting political/travel instability has become a greater concern than hurricanes.

Example: As hundreds of boats wait to head down to Trinidad, the Trinidad population of 1.4 million mostly poor people who’ve now gone almost three months without a paycheck remain in lockdown with no end in sight, even though there are presently zero active cases of covid on the islands of Trinidad and Tobago. Zero active cases... borders and businesses remain closed, no flights in or out. With this kind of instability, there’s no way most people should trust leaving a valuable asset down there.
 

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Capta,

Yes, a missed opportunity. Perhaps this winter season? IF we can come back!
 

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Ken111,

Yes this is a problem, one I have been foreseeing for a while.

Imagine you are the PM of one of these islands. You have shut down and “beaten” the virus. Cheers all around, good job. Now what?

The PM is painted into a corner. If he opens in any commercially viable way the virus will return. If the virus returns the people will ask “If the virus was inevitable why did we lock down?”

If he does not commercially open the tax base disappears.

The worst case is maybe the most likely, a open, close, open, close ..... scenario.

I’m not liking the odds. This will hurt.
 
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Here on the East coast of Florida - they arent too accurate with numbers at times - but one thing that seems consistent the last 5 years - when they do head our way they are bigger and stronger - we got very lucky last year with Dorian ( not the Bahamas though) I expect if we get hit with one it will be strong - the water temps are just staying high - lots of fuel for a hurricane.
 

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Discussion Starter #17
There’s been a endless argument due to not differentiating climate from weather. Still what goes on with El Niño, waters off West Africa and in Caribbean seas does make a difference. Graphics of severity and frequency are informative. So you do see good years and bad with a trend to greater severity. That’s not a political statement
 

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There’s been a endless argument due to not differentiating climate from weather. Still what goes on with El Niño, waters off West Africa and in Caribbean seas does make a difference. Graphics of severity and frequency are informative. So you do see good years and bad with a trend to greater severity. That’s not a political statement
Agreed

I think each year they are better at forecasting from 5 days in. After that there are too many variables. Long range is based on trends of great values of data which inherently make forecasting a greater degree of difficulty.

I don’t thing we would ever get a real read on this. Just probabilities in geral exrapolsting data.

I think that’s it’s remarkable that they can predict what they can.
 

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I’ve been reading up on NOAA hurricane predictions. They only claim their season predictions to be 60% - 70% accurate, within a range of storm numbers. That’s pretty squishy. Specifically.......

The seasonal activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 70% of seasons with similar climate conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. These ranges do not represent the total possible ranges of activity seen in past similar years. The predicted ranges for 2020 are centered above the 1981-2010 seasonal averages of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Most of the predicted activity is likely to occur during the peak months (August-October, ASO) of the hurricane season.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1st through November 30th. This outlook will be updated in early August to coincide with the onset of the peak months of the season.
Here is their actual prediction, not media sound bite. Higher than normal is 60% odds.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane2020/May/hurricane.shtml

I just don’t have the time to line up all their historic predictions vs. actual. Here’s the archived predictions....

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane-archive.shtml
 
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