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bell ringer
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The most important thing to know about hurricane season is that you need to be near me. I stayed right in the heart of the hurricane strike zone of the Gulf last year in Mississippi and every storm that came toward me was turned away by my mighty little yellow weather rubber duckie.
 

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snake charmer, cat herder
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every year the predictions have been same. i disbelieve the predictions and watch the realities.. they say more active here is still same 19-21 storms they say less active here we still have 19-21 mebbe even 23 storms... havent made letter x yet... still workin on it.
AANNDD i have seen same for atlantic basin.

just hold on to your britches buy a new belt and heeeres summer.
each basin has had an early appearance.. the words spouted by the predictors now say that means a lighter season. that means a heavier season. so.. flip the coin ourselves and see what we get.
oh yes and itis to be a la nina year but could be an el nino year and ,..yada yada yada yada.
 

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every year the predictions have been same. i disbelieve the predictions and watch the realities.. they say more active here is still same 19-21 storms they say less active here we still have 19-21 mebbe even 23 storms... havent made letter x yet... still workin on it.
AANNDD i have seen same for atlantic basin.

just hold on to your britches buy a new belt and heeeres summer.
each basin has had an early appearance.. the words spouted by the predictors now say that means a lighter season. that means a heavier season. so.. flip the coin ourselves and see what we get.
oh yes and itis to be a la nina year but could be an el nino year and ,..yada yada yada yada.
Unfortunately a lot of the "expert" opinions about weather come from people with no more ability to predict it than you or I, but what they spout has a certain following from folks with one political agenda or another so they are deemed to be "expert." Personally, I think what you said in your post just above is about as "expert" as anything else I've heard on TV, the Internet, or on this thread, and it's even based on real world experience rather than a computer model or being colored by some political opinion you may have. Looking out my window, it's all blue sky and 75 degrees, so my expert prediction is that it's going to be a beautiful day to be outside and away from this %$#* computer, so that's where I'm headed right now!
 

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Discussion Starter #46
Personally find weather and climate endlessly fascinating. Took a course from Lee Chesneau and been a Chris subscriber for years. Still lget info CommandersWeather as well on occasion.With advent of computer modeling things have gotten significantly better. I remember doing a simple transport of a Hinckley pilot from their Maine yard to Duxbury MA. There was a buoy out. NOAA’s forcast was nothing close to reality. We got caught in a true storm with occasional force 10-11 for over an hour at times. A through hull failed. We were declared overdue. First wife applied for my life insurance.
Even accounting for the mistakes CommandersWeather made with the 1500 or Chris made with fall SDR mistakes like NOAA made back then just don’t happen anymore. Multiple models using multiple sources of data.
Have been told to go north of Bahamas and wait on a BVI to Newport by Chris. We waited hove to for a week. Missed out on 60 k from the north in the stream. Got those directions four days before event.
So to those who think meteorologists are full of bunk I know they’ve saved my bacon a lot more than once.
 

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I'm amazed at the damning of weather researchers for making seasonal hurricane forecasts that are only 60-70% correct. They are only estimating amount of activity based on historical data correlated with large-scale climatology. For instance, the presence of an El Nino or La Nina means different estimates, as do many other climate conditions. Do you really expect them in February to know precisely how many hurricanes will form, as well as where and when? Their estimates are to help with guiding preparations, not to allow one to plan a season of hurricane passages on their boat.

It's no different than epidemiologists predicting the annual flu season. It helps to know in general terms what could be expected, and possibly how much preparation or caution to take.

Mark
 

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bell ringer
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Weather duck or mother-in-law?

Mark
the plastic yellow rubber duckie, it will out drink that old woman every time and not fall asleep after the first glass
 

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snake charmer, cat herder
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I'm amazed at the damning of weather researchers for making seasonal hurricane forecasts that are only 60-70% correct. They are only estimating amount of activity based on historical data correlated with large-scale climatology. For instance, the presence of an El Nino or La Nina means different estimates, as do many other climate conditions. Do you really expect them in February to know precisely how many hurricanes will form, as well as where and when? Their estimates are to help with guiding preparations, not to allow one to plan a season of hurricane passages on their boat.

It's no different than epidemiologists predicting the annual flu season. It helps to know in general terms what could be expected, and possibly how much preparation or caution to take.

Mark
having lived thru and survived many cane seasons in cane alley i see the marked difference between reality and predicted maybes. is drawing straws out of a can.
models for canes as well as models for flus are incorrect most of time, and it is a tossup which model maybe accuratest fro the specific storm. yes accuratest. hahahahaha checkout the ihme corona model ..way off mark. totally fear mongering and bs. we can do much better by seeing the nhc potential issues and doing what we can to prep for em.
currently we have a nice lil orange blob around salvador. fla has a lil yellow over land issue that willnot do anything to fla.
the mexicoast is dependent on accuracy for prevention of damages and protection from storms even to evacuation of towns. if we are fortunate perhaps 6 of the 19-23 cyclonic events possible might hit land. we depend on models to watch and prep. sometimes that doesnot work.sometimes it does. gods bless us they didnt work for patricia in 2015, nor did they work so well for odile and many other interruptions of fun and frolic in mexico waters.
i take the season predictions as a hahahahaha not a warning as there is little if any accuracy to the prediction of more activity for mexicoast.
once the cyclonic event gets rolling the models become more accurate but it takes 3 tries to track a storm to get any kind of accuracy in tracking. intensification of storm rolling toward ye is also an issue..they do this in predictable areas not mentioned by nhc or other experts in their fields. folks need to learn these locations and watch closely as storms approach and pass
through areas wherein these rapidly intensify and prep accordingly.
the rapid intensification areas are fairly reliable despite the fact they are not mentioned in the tracking and predictions during the development of each issue.
from what i have seen of east coast storms and survival of same is the rapid intensification surprises way too many folks who are unprepared for the intensity they receive. this also happens to folks in baja sur when ri occurs over waters off cabo corrientes before slamming the baja peninsula. post odile folks were amazed with her strength ans i heard quotes"we were told only 79 mph winds coming" and so much damage as a result. gotta pay attention to each and all of these beautiful creations. the more beautiful, the more deadly.
 

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Hunter 386
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The most important thing to know about hurricane season is that you need to be near me. I stayed right in the heart of the hurricane strike zone of the Gulf last year in Mississippi and every storm that came toward me was turned away by my mighty little yellow weather rubber duckie.
That's one magic ducky! You can tell be 'cause he is sideways in the thumbnail but magically turns upright when he expands! How much you want for him?
 

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bell ringer
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That's one magic ducky! You can tell be 'cause he is sideways in the thumbnail but magically turns upright when he expands! How much you want for him?
My wife says "he is priceless" as he has worked the magic more than once. She has left him behind in places in the past and facebook people go crazy and we have to go back and get him. But a word of warning before you go out and get one, they can really drink a lot for their size.
 

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I'm amazed at the damning of weather researchers for making seasonal hurricane forecasts that are only 60-70% correct. They are only estimating amount of activity based on historical data correlated with large-scale climatology. For instance, the presence of an El Nino or La Nina means different estimates, as do many other climate conditions. Do you really expect them in February to know precisely how many hurricanes will form, as well as where and when? Their estimates are to help with guiding preparations, not to allow one to plan a season of hurricane passages on their boat.

It's no different than epidemiologists predicting the annual flu season. It helps to know in general terms what could be expected, and possibly how much preparation or caution to take.

Mark
Mark,

Not arguing just pointing out:

Weather forecasters 60% to 70% correct.

Coin flip 50% correct.
 

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Personally find weather and climate endlessly fascinating. Took a course from Lee Chesneau and been a Chris subscriber for years. Still lget info CommandersWeather as well on occasion.With advent of computer modeling things have gotten significantly better. I remember doing a simple transport of a Hinckley pilot from their Maine yard to Duxbury MA. There was a buoy out. NOAA’s forcast was nothing close to reality. We got caught in a true storm with occasional force 10-11 for over an hour at times. A through hull failed. We were declared overdue. First wife applied for my life insurance.
Even accounting for the mistakes CommandersWeather made with the 1500 or Chris made with fall SDR mistakes like NOAA made back then just don’t happen anymore. Multiple models using multiple sources of data.
Have been told to go north of Bahamas and wait on a BVI to Newport by Chris. We waited hove to for a week. Missed out on 60 k from the north in the stream. Got those directions four days before event.
So to those who think meteorologists are full of bunk I know they’ve saved my bacon a lot more than once.
As a military and then professional pilot for the last (gulp!) 42 years, I've been pretty regularly consulting with various weather forecasters too and you're right that the info they offer has improved a lot so I don't question that they've saved your bacon multiple times. But I think Z was referring to the reliability of more long range forecasts such as speculating on whether we'll have a lot or few hurricanes months from now, which seem to be little more than coin flips to me. Wx info is much better than it used to be looking ahead up to about a week or so, but beyond that, I haven't noticed much of an improvement, and yet certain forecasters persist in making long range predictions that hardly ever seem to come true.

BTW, I once had a Hinckley Pilot and even though there was little freeboard when heeled over in a blow, especially for its size it handled big waves and winds amazingly well. No banging and the bow would sink into a wave all the way to the sheerline and then float up out of it. At times in big waves you'd almost feel like you were in a submarine but the boat kept on sailing just fine and you never felt out of control or had any violent motion or hard banging. Somebody at S&S knew what they were doing when they drew that boat!
 

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Discussion Starter #56
Had the floorboards floating.contaminated fuel and fresh water. 4 on board. One(owner went useless) other hypothermic from fixing leak. Dealing with that lost sails. Knock downs. Not pretty. But we got home. Strong little thing.
 

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Discussion Starter #57
Given the decrease in shipping and air travel even the short term forecasts maybe less reliable. Have persisted with using a recording barometer and watching clouds. Once was taught on a small boat you care most about the weather immediately where you are. That’s the problem with girbs. They aren’t granular enough so can be quite misleading. Especially when coastal. Pop up t storms and hyper local line squalls can ruin your day.
 

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Had the floorboards floating.contaminated fuel and fresh water. 4 on board. One(owner went useless) other hypothermic from fixing leak. Dealing with that lost sails. Knock downs. Not pretty. But we got home. Strong little thing.
Ouch, I imagine that floating floorboards are definitely not fun when out of sight of land! Never done that but I was on a Pilot that I noticed sinking in NE Harbor one nice Sunday morning and since I also owned one and knew where the thru hulls were located I went aboard to close them. From outside, the boat was looking VERY sleek with the boot stripe well underwater and when I got aboard, the cushions from the settee were floating so it was about ready to go. But I closed the thru-hulls and pretty soon the USCG and Hinckley service showed up with a big pump and they cleaned it out and a few days later it was back on its mooring. As it turned out it was the joker valve on the head that had failed and since the rim of the toilet was below the waterline, water was flowing steadily in. For weeks after I had people telling me that the very old owner wanted to thank me in person and kept rowing out to where my mooring was but I was never there. He finally did catch me on my mooring and was very gracious. He was about 80 and could afford about any boat he wanted but his Pilot 35 was his baby and he was genuinely very grateful I noticed it sinking and closed the thru-hulls before he lost it.
 

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having lived thru and survived many cane seasons in cane alley i see the marked difference between reality and predicted maybes. is drawing straws out of a can.
models for canes as well as models for flus are incorrect most of time, and it is a tossup which model maybe accuratest fro the specific storm. yes accuratest. hahahahaha checkout the ihme corona model ..way off mark. totally fear mongering and bs. we can do much better by seeing the nhc potential issues and doing what we can to prep for em.
currently we have a nice lil orange blob around salvador. fla has a lil yellow over land issue that willnot do anything to fla.
the mexicoast is dependent on accuracy for prevention of damages and protection from storms even to evacuation of towns. if we are fortunate perhaps 6 of the 19-23 cyclonic events possible might hit land. we depend on models to watch and prep. sometimes that doesnot work.sometimes it does. gods bless us they didnt work for patricia in 2015, nor did they work so well for odile and many other interruptions of fun and frolic in mexico waters.
i take the season predictions as a hahahahaha not a warning as there is little if any accuracy to the prediction of more activity for mexicoast.
once the cyclonic event gets rolling the models become more accurate but it takes 3 tries to track a storm to get any kind of accuracy in tracking. intensification of storm rolling toward ye is also an issue..they do this in predictable areas not mentioned by nhc or other experts in their fields. folks need to learn these locations and watch closely as storms approach and pass
through areas wherein these rapidly intensify and prep accordingly.
the rapid intensification areas are fairly reliable despite the fact they are not mentioned in the tracking and predictions during the development of each issue.
from what i have seen of east coast storms and survival of same is the rapid intensification surprises way too many folks who are unprepared for the intensity they receive. this also happens to folks in baja sur when ri occurs over waters off cabo corrientes before slamming the baja peninsula. post odile folks were amazed with her strength ans i heard quotes"we were told only 79 mph winds coming" and so much damage as a result. gotta pay attention to each and all of these beautiful creations. the more beautiful, the more deadly.
I can't respond to this in any meaningful way because I can't begin to even comprehend it. It is illegible, and what little I can piece together is illogical.

Mark
 

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Mark,

Not arguing just pointing out:

Weather forecasters 60% to 70% correct.

Coin flip 50% correct.
Understood, and I don't even know if the 60-70% is correct - I just borrowed that from a previous post.

My point is that they are trying to do good, and the task is virtually impossible at this time but steadily getting better over the years. 60% is a LOT different than 50% in this type of thing. If you don't think so, for sure don't visit a casino.

These types of long-range forecasts are done for many things - orange growing seasons, droughts/floods, wine harvests, etc, and none of them are spot on. They are helpful to varying extent even in their squishy accuracy. They aren't attempting to predict dates, times, and places of individual storms - they are only attempting to give a head's up on what might be expected for the coming year.

Personally, given the task of predicting the number of major storms over a 9 month future, I think 60% is pretty good.

The alternative implied by some is to get rid of all the climatologists, computer models, and their forecasts. That would just put us back fully in the mercy of unknown weather patterns.

Mark
 
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