[RegisteredUser]

Gfs shows it developing early next week, coming in at dominica, over top of puerto rico...then bigger.
Euro shows later and smaller development going north of leewards.
Much disagreement this far out.

Gfs would probably take me out.
Will watch and plan to move south end of this week, weekend

 

[Minnewaska]

What source are you looking at that shows these undeveloped storms past a couple of days? I'm seeing 20-30% of development through 5 days on the NHC site and a tracking bubble (difference from a hurricane cone) that doesn't say strength.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

Hope all make out well, I have a hard time understanding why anyone would want to be cruising down there during cane season. Even if you move on this data, the storm can redirect to your new destination or have another pop up. If you move south out of the way of the first, you could be hit by the second. All just seems like a roulette wheel, little more.

 

[RegisteredUser]

Shown on windy.
My predictwind doesnt go out that far

 

[Minnewaska]

Shown on windy.
My predictwind doesnt go out that far

I see it now. First starts to appear 8 days out, just north of the Bahamas. That's nearly fiction, as you know. Could happen, hard to use for decisioning.

 

[RegisteredUser]

I see it now. First starts to appear 8 days out, just north of the Bahamas. That's nearly fiction, as you know. Could happen, hard to use for decisioning.

When the models start to agree....
Have your plan/s inhand before they agree

...now look at the gfs model on windy...

 

[colemj]

Looking like it will hit Alabama to me...

Mark

 

[capta]

I have a hard time understanding why anyone would want to be cruising down there during cane season.

Well, if one really enjoys uncrowded anchorages and quiet bays, the only time you are going to get that is in the summer. There are quite a few eastern side anchorages that are completely unavailable at any other time, so cruising in the summer is the only time to go.
Perhaps, if you had been down here before satellite/internet weather, when you knew a storm was coming more or less toward where you were but only that it was going to strike you directly when it hit the other side of the island, you would consider sailing in the hurricane season today as safe as sailing anywhere. After all, you can hole up in Grenada and an Ivan can still ruin your week.
I think one would have to be pretty inattentive to get hit by a storm in the Windwards or Leewards in these days of satellite/internet weather, as long as you are prepared to move your boat a hundred miles or so north or south. It's always a mistake to get lulled into complacency like Mark did in St. Martin, and then get hit by a "not yet developed" tropical storm, which turns out to be a hurricane.
However, especially after the Dorian fiasco, I think we can all agree that if you have to rely on the weather forecasters, then perhaps cruising the eastern Caribbean in the summer isn't for you.

 

[RegisteredUser]

Passageweather is showing it hitting dominica/guadeloupe next monday

 

[capta]

Oh boy.
Are you sure you are all rested up enough to begin this all over again?

 

[MarkofSeaLife]

It's September and they're coming thick and fast.

Tropicaltidbits.com has most of the Invests on its storms page.

 

[mbianka]

It's September and they're coming thick and fast.

Tropicaltidbits.com has most of the Invests on its storms page.

Just started to read/listen to the book SUDDEN SEA about the 1938 Hurricane that hit Long Island and New England and created the Shinecock Inlet around September 21. Keeping a weather eye on the tropics myself. Tropical Tidbits is great for understanding the storms and the possibilities.

 

[Minnewaska]

....I think one would have to be pretty inattentive to get hit by a storm in the Windwards or Leewards in these days of satellite/internet weather, as long as you are prepared to move your boat a hundred miles or so north or south........

Glad it's worked for you. However, there have been storms that gave virtually no notice, they don't all march across the Atlantic first. The three day cone is 100 miles wide and still only 66% statistically likely. If you were at one side and could get further away, that might make sense. However, even that close, the seas must be getting stirred, you better not have a mechanical failure and wherever you're going better not be full.

I think I'll pass, even though most will win the draw. The Caribbean is a big place. I'm not sure I see it as much more scientific than that.

 

[colemj]

I think one would have to be pretty inattentive to get hit by a storm in the Windwards or Leewards in these days of satellite/internet weather, as long as you are prepared to move your boat a hundred miles or so north or south.

I'm not sure about that. We were in Grenada in 2010 when a hurricane (Tomas) was making a direct approach to Grenada. The forecasts and models were all in agreement that Grenada would be the island it hit. A day or so before it was to hit, all the charter boats, and many cruising boats ran up to St. Lucia (we holed up in Grenada). Then, the hurricane turned North and hit St. Lucia.

While I think it is less risky to run South for a hurricane in the EC, I think it is risky to run North - particularly in the Windwards.

Mark

 

[RegisteredUser]

To the south is also the weaker side. Just makes sense

 

[MarkofSeaLife]

I had a summer on a hurricane mooring in St Martin.

One of my more stupid things I've done.

Hurricane Gonzalo popped up.

I found out you can't run south from the north end of the Caribbean because most of the hurricanes are going North East and you'd be crossing in front of it.
You can only run south when it's already tracking north of you.
But the buggers wriggle so much you really - OK let me cross out 'you' - I really can't work out where the hell they're going and I get this frozen with indecision thing. You'all being better sailors (etc) than me wouldn't have these problems...

So I stayed on board and rode out this fast developing hurricane and got to experience an eye wall. Sonethibg I will never, ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever do again.

Your bravado flies out of the seat of your pants when people die just a few hundred meters from you.




Mark

 

[capta]

I'm not sure about that. We were in Grenada in 2010 when a hurricane (Tomas) was making a direct approach to Grenada. The forecasts and models were all in agreement that Grenada would be the island it hit. A day or so before it was to hit, all the charter boats, and many cruising boats ran up to St. Lucia (we holed up in Grenada). Then, the hurricane turned North and hit St. Lucia.

While I think it is less risky to run South for a hurricane in the EC, I think it is risky to run North - particularly in the Windwards.

Mark

I don't disagree that whenever possible it is probably better to run south, but I still maintain that there is enough information available so that one shouldn't make that mistake. As you say, perhaps I've been lucky, but if so, it's been a very long lucky streak.

 

[mbianka]

I had a summer on a hurricane mooring in St Martin.


So I stayed on board and rode out this fast developing hurricane and got to experience an eye wall. Sonethibg I will never, ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever ever do again.

Your bravado flies out of the seat of your pants when people die just a few hundred meters from you.

Mark

I had planed to ride out Hurricane Sandy on the mooring. But, I could not get back to the dingy dock because the roads to the marina were flooded out way before it hit. After the storm I found my boat 1000 feet from where I left it still attached to the mooring. Storm surge lifted it and moved it across the harbor. A year or two later I rode out a Nor'Easter on board. Won't do that again. The 30 to 40 knot winds and higher gusts convinced me there would be nothing I could do if things started breaking bad while on board.

 

[colemj]

I don't disagree that whenever possible it is probably better to run south, but I still maintain that there is enough information available so that one shouldn't make that mistake. As you say, perhaps I've been lucky, but if so, it's been a very long lucky streak.

Hundreds of boats did make that mistake, including all of the charter boats that were brought to Grenada to be safe for the summer. The forecast was to hit Grenada, with Trinidad even being a potential target. Nobody was talking about St. Lucia, but that is where it hit.

I agree that there is enough timely information to very early run far away from a hurricane towards a known low-risk area, but disagree that one can count on simply moving 100nm in a predicted direction a couple of days before impact.

Mark

 

[RegisteredUser]

There is a lot that goes into a plan to move.
Its fluid and your 'go' time is such.
Err on maybe being scared and jumping early rather than late.
Late takes away your options. That funnel tightens quickly. You are resigned to the roll at a craps table...or something else as scary...

We have quakes that give almost zero notice, tornados that might give 1 hr notice, floods that have several days notice.
Risks

We have..tools. use them as well as you are able.

 

[GLausin]

Gfs would probably take me out.
Will watch and plan to move south end of this week, weekend

Good luck out there, don't take any chances!!!