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I did a delivery from CT to Brazil in August. We did get hit by a tropical low which developed into a cane further north. We did the passage pretty quickly and stopped in Antigua and then made a run south hoping that if something developed we would be south of the EC by the time it would appear there. We may have been lucky. But beating along the long north coast of SA was no picnic!
 

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.....I still maintain that there is enough information available so that one shouldn't make that mistake. As you say, perhaps I've been lucky, but if so, it's been a very long lucky streak.
Best of luck to you Capta. You've probably developed more experience and intuition that 99+% of others will ever have the chance. It may be slightly dangerous to encourage the newbs, who have more courage than know how. Nevertheless, don't I recall reading that you've seen more than one hurricane up front and personal. That may be the lucky part.

Cheers. Be safe.
 

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I've been to the Caribbean and the Bahamas in the summer. My wife prefers the summer weather, which is more calm and the water even warmer. We've flown down each time, never aboard the boat. Always had an escape route that had us back in New England the next day. Big difference from a sailboat.

However, watching tropical weather developments from my comfy protected couch can be exhausting. It would be a real buzz kill to worry about being bug out ready all the time on the boat. I'm recalling when I decided to change fuel filters at anchor once and the filter house accidentally broke. I was SOL for a couple of days, trying to source the repair. I think I'd be constantly worried about events like that.

I'm not sure the absence of crowds does anything to overcome it. In fact, I wonder if the busy seasons are just safer and more fun. There definitely places on this planet, where I'd rather have folks around than be fully alone and isolated. There comes a point, when no activity is boring too. I go back and forth, like energy, then like solitude. Even in the notoriously busy BVIs, no winter crowd has ever been in the way of us having a great time. nor kept us from going anywhere we chose.
 
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Discussion Starter #25
More agreement...
Storm hits top of leewards, forms hurricane after hittimg puerto rico, runs thru t&c and right up bahamas chain.
Im in george town exumas. Forecasts showing eye hits here end of next week. Great...
Yeah, will prob change...or not :)
 

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Still a long way off to know. That's 10 days. Pure fiction for now. Hoping it doesn't play out that way.

Still, let's assume it plays out exactly as you describe. What do you do and when do you do it? Seems like no where to run, based on this forecast, unless you leave for Grenada now. If you wait till a few days out, then what?
 

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More agreement...
Storm hits top of leewards, forms hurricane after hittimg puerto rico, runs thru t&c and right up bahamas chain.
Im in george town exumas. Forecasts showing eye hits here end of next week. Great...
Yeah, will prob change...or not :)
Hope it misses you and the Exumas. We charter there each spring and would hate to see it meet the same fate as Marsh Harbor.
 

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Is this worth it to sit in the box during the season, sweating what might happen 10 days from now? Seems like such a buzz kill. I think I made that point already above. Hope all are safe.
 

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Discussion Starter #29
Still a long way off to know. That's 10 days. Pure fiction for now. Hoping it doesn't play out that way.

Still, let's assume it plays out exactly as you describe. What do you do and when do you do it? Seems like no where to run, based on this forecast, unless you leave for Grenada now. If you wait till a few days out, then what?
If it holds, i leave sat for cooba. North or south coast, depending on conditions.
North entry port is about 150nm, south entry is about 350nm
 

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Discussion Starter #30
Is this worth it to sit in the box during the season, sweating what might happen 10 days from now? Seems like such a buzz kill. I think I made that point already above. Hope all are safe.
Not a buzz kill at all, just what is going on. We choose.
Spent many years in tornado alley where there is little to no warning.
Wearher info we get now...is fantabulous.
Sure, the big mean bear can appear...just choose a different wood
 

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If it holds, i leave sat for cooba. North or south coast, depending on conditions.
North entry port is about 150nm, south entry is about 350nm
That would be about 5 days out. I suppose steering currents, at the time, could be pretty clear that it could not change course toward Cuba. That's still a long way out. The 66% likely forecast is still 200nm wide at that point. 1 in 3 it goes wherever the heck it wants outside the cone.

All the best. Seriously.
 

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70% chance of forming TS over Bahamas Tomorrow.

Heading for every state that surrounds, but not including, any state beginning with A except Arkansas and Alaska.
 
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Discussion Starter #34
70% chance of forming TS over Bahamas Tomorrow.

Heading for every state that surrounds, but not including, any state beginning with A except Arkansas and Alaska.
Euro has it popping the abacos...jeez.
Gfs has it not forming.

64L slowed down.
Euro has it going over cuba now, s to n, then forming hurricane.
I say, loudly, down with the euro...
 

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What's the current plan, man.
 

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Discussion Starter #36
Go south, preferably keeping bottom of acklins and matthew town within reach if conditions change. Having mild southerlies right now.
Weather doesnt look as crazy now..mother nature reined her temp back in for a while
Been here 3 or 4 weeks too long
 
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