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I have always thought that the Caribbean 1500 and Salty Dawg were based on a false premise...

That there is a weather window between the last hurricane and the first nor'easter.

We have sailed out of the Southern Caribbean twice at the end of hurricane season but not until late November because nobody told the weather gods that hurricane season ends November 1st. They are rare in November but they do happen. Hurricane Lenny in 1999 was a Cat IV that formed on the 13th of November.

I cannot get weather map to load but if you check..

Intellicast - Atlantic Analysis in United States

It shows tropical waves continuing to cross the Atlantic and a steering Azores high that will keep then crossing the Islands. I we were in the Chesapeake we would not be going off-shore to the Island until the later in the year...

Phil someone who has been in too many hurricanes!
 

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Sailboat Reboot
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Interesting that you bring this up. I am currently at JEB Little Creek in Virginia Beach, just down the water from Portsmouth, VA. Between the Carib1500, Salty Dawg, and snow bird contingents there must be 500 or so extra boats here in the Elizabeth River and southern Chesapeake Bay.

Last night we were treated to sustained winds in the 35 knot range with gusts to 50 knots. This morning as I write this the winds are 15 gusting to 25. The temperature is 46F. Not pleasant conditions at all.

I think that the November 1st departure is mostly a function of insurance rules. Most marine insurance policies limit the ability to cross south of a line about the latitude of the Florida - Georgia state line until November 1st. So a large number of sailors are trying to get South to escape the cold weather and have the longest season possible.

Yes, if you look at the forecast they are going to be here for at least another few days.

Fair winds and following seas :)
 

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Mermaid Hunter
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I have always thought that the Caribbean 1500 and Salty Dawg were based on a false premise...

That there is a weather window between the last hurricane and the first nor'easter.
I think that the November 1st departure is mostly a function of insurance rules. Most marine insurance policies limit the ability to cross south of a line about the latitude of the Florida - Georgia state line until November 1st. So a large number of sailors are trying to get South to escape the cold weather and have the longest season possible.
I agree with Roger. The premise of the rallies is that a significant number of participants carry marine insurance. It is the actuaries at insurance companies that, based on loss data, that define the dates and geography of the hurricane box.

Incidentally some policies define the Northern boundary of the hurricane box somewhere between 36°N and Norfolk.
 

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I have always thought that the Caribbean 1500 and Salty Dawg were based on a false premise...

That there is a weather window between the last hurricane and the first nor'easter.

We have sailed out of the Southern Caribbean twice at the end of hurricane season but not until late November because nobody told the weather gods that hurricane season ends November 1st. They are rare in November but they do happen. Hurricane Lenny in 1999 was a Cat IV that formed on the 13th of November.

I cannot get weather map to load but if you check..

Intellicast - Atlantic Analysis in United States

It shows tropical waves continuing to cross the Atlantic and a steering Azores high that will keep then crossing the Islands. I we were in the Chesapeake we would not be going off-shore to the Island until the later in the year...

Phil someone who has been in too many hurricanes!
Interesting thread. I was with you 100% until the end when you suggest leaving later. I agree that there doesn't seem to be defined break between hurricane season and the onset of the winter storms. To me, that doesn't suggest waiting until the winter frontal patterns are fully established, but rather that you need to be opportunistic and perhaps leave earlier. Is the certainty of getting hit by a couple of strong winter fronts better than the managed risk of a tropical low developing and tracking you down after you've gotten underway? Definitely interested in more opinions on this.
 

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I have always thought that the Caribbean 1500 and Salty Dawg were based on a false premise...

That there is a weather window between the last hurricane and the first nor'easter.
No, No, No... The premise of these rallies is that there is "Safety in Numbers" when making an offshore passage...

(grin, bigtime)

I think that the November 1st departure is mostly a function of insurance rules. Most marine insurance policies limit the ability to cross south of a line about the latitude of the Florida - Georgia state line until November 1st. So a large number of sailors are trying to get South to escape the cold weather and have the longest season possible.

Yes, if you look at the forecast they are going to be here for at least another few days.
While that is certainly true, the early November date is also largely a function of the timing of our Thanksgiving holiday. One of the primary driving forces in the formation of the Salty Dawg Rally, was the scheduling of the 1500 the first year it was taken over by the WCC, who set a departure date around Nov 8 or thereabouts... Bill and Linda Knowles thought that was too late, and with good reason...

Fortunately for the participants this year, Thanksgiving is coming pretty late in the month... But, as so many of the boats are relying on friends for additional crew - with the understanding that the departure will be made within a time frame that will allow them to be back home by Thanksgiving - once the departure date gets pushed back close to a week or so, you'll see crewmembers bailing out of Portsmouth and Hampton by the dozens...

Anyone who wants to get some experience offshore, looks like this might be a good year to think about packing a seabag, and heading down to the Tidewater... Walking the docks this year, I'll bet virtually anyone with a pulse might be able to find a ride, if boats are still sitting there beyond a few days...

:)
 

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. . .once the departure date gets pushed back close to a week or so, you'll see crewmembers bailing out of Portsmouth and Hampton by the dozens...

Anyone who wants to get some experience offshore, looks like this might be a good year to think about packing a seabag, and heading down to the Tidewater... Walking the docks this year, I'll bet virtually anyone with a pulse might be able to find a ride, if boats are still sitting there beyond a few days...

:)
You don't think that the majority will leave tomorrow or Tuesday?
 

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You don't think that the majority will leave tomorrow or Tuesday?
Only if:
1) They can't read a weather forecast like Sailing Weather - Marine Weather Forecasts for Sailors and Adventurers - PassageWeather
or
2) They are "immensely talented" and can tolerate the conditions,
or
3) They are insane. :)

Tuesday is a possibility but the waves will still be pretty high for the uninitiated. The down side is the USCG will no doubt be out rescuing people over the next few days...

Fair winds and following seas :)
 

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You don't think that the majority will leave tomorrow or Tuesday?
I have no idea... the 1500 says they're leaving tomorrow at noon, it's anyone's guess what the larger group of Salty Dawgs will wind up doing...

In any event, with the sporty conditions likely to be encountered, some boats might be thinking about taking extra crew this time, on short notice...
 

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The C1500 fleet seems to be made up of significantly larger boats. They also have a history of heading out in nastier conditions (and IIRC they have trumpeted that willingness to shove off earlier in improving conditions as reason for missing the next round of nastiness). I could see a big chunk of the SDR heading to Beaufort (that fleet includes a handful of 34-35'ers).

As for the forecast 000UTC = 7pm the prior day EST so this is 7PM Monday evening:

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_48hrwind_wave.gif

Looks favorable, no?
 

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I have no idea... the 1500 says they're leaving tomorrow at noon, it's anyone's guess what the larger group of Salty Dawgs will wind up doing...
I personally would plan on Monday afternoon, watching the weather as it develops and prepared to stand down.

I'd also plan to put off less experienced crew.

A lot depends on the boat of course.
 

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That Monday forecast looks about as good as one could get. If I was going I would really want to push hard to get as far east and south as possible before that next depression comes on Friday/Saturday. If the depression is going to stay south at all a stop in Bermuda might be a good idea. Otherwise get south fast.

One other thing that must be remembered is that, in spite of any requirements for offshore experience (to Bermuda in May-June for example), this is the first serious (and it can be very serious) offshore passage for many. I know I am a different sailor than I was in 2009 when we did this route.
 

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The C1500 fleet seems to be made up of significantly larger boats. They also have a history of heading out in nastier conditions (and IIRC they have trumpeted that willingness to shove off earlier in improving conditions as reason for missing the next round of nastiness). I could see a big chunk of the SDR heading to Beaufort (that fleet includes a handful of 34-35'ers).
Yup, as I said a few days ago in the Rallies Gone Wrong thread, if I were making the trip this year in my own boat, I'd probably be in Morehead/Beaufort by now... :)

Here's a report forwarded to me by a friend, from Eric Freedman aboard the Amel 53 KIMBERLITE... Eric is a VERY experienced offshore sailor, particularly on the route from NY to the Caribbean, which he generally makes non-stop every year. I've never had the pleasure of meeting Eric, but this guy is The Real Deal, no question about it. And a true master of understatement when it comes to dealing with heavy weather offshore, as this write-up from OCEAN NAVIGATOR attests... :))

Prepare for survival conditions - Ocean Navigator - May/June 2011

Right now, KIMBERLITE is somewhat E of Bermuda... They were planning to stop, but now it seems uncertain what they're gonna do...

https://share.delorme.com/kimberlite

Needless to say, they've been dealing with some pretty serious conditions, in that part of the ocean:

16:00 zulu position 33-24N 63-29 west Parallel and east of Bermuda,
Again I am typing with one hand and holding on with the other.
It all started about 3 am when the entire Leach (rear end of the head sail) tore about 45 feet.
we had to immediately roll up the sail.
without that we can no longer sail even close to where the wind is coming from so off to the east we went.
The seas were extraordinarily confused wind from one direction waves from another and an occasional biggie coming out of nowhere, The winds were are and still are gusting to 40 knots.
seas 9-16 feet on average. a number of times we hit a wave with no back and on the far side of the wave the boat just dropped 8-10 feed--Makes quite a noise.

I waited for daylight to change the head sail.
Our next sail is a heavy monster that takes 2 people to lift. we took this out of the stern locker and dragged it to the cockpit. We then planned how to change this sail at the bow of the boat in 30 knots of wind.
THree of us went to the bow and pulled down the sail and sheets into the cockpit. After using a hammer and wedge i removed the controlling lines, sheets, and we dragged it into th stern locker.

Putting this heavy sail up means we have to head the boat into the wind and 10-12 foot seas while the damn thing and lines are flogging all over the deck. The sail has to be fed into a track on the headstay by two people while on cranks up the sail

more to come

...

You have to be very careful while raising the sail in these condition as you can easily get seriously hurt by one of the heavy lines ore even receive a concussion if you are hit at the clew , where the lines join the sail. remember this sail is 65 feet tall. i wason the bow with jeff feeding the sail into the track,we were constantly underwater as the bow dipped into each wave. One memorable wave put me under water and i just remember the cold sea water filling my foul weather jacket , covering my head and finally running out my pants. we were all on deck without shoes as we have better traction. Jeff either slipped or got hit by the sail and split the lobe of his ear open.

we finally got the sail up and went back to sailing and assessing the damage to jeff.
I could have sutured or stapled his ear lobe closed but the tear was quite clean,and the boat was very unstable
I thoroughly cleaned the area with peroxide and then betadine. when this dried, i used surgical crazy glue to put his ear back together. It worked amazingly well. after the glue dried I reinforced it with butterfly bandages and steri strips. it looks really good.

dinner scallop and striped bass Gunbo. still waiting for a break in the weather.
Fortunately we made good time east otherwise we would have been in Bermuda for 4-5 days.
Every time I read an account like this, it only reinforces my reluctance to go offshore in boats of that size... 40-42 feet is the upper limit of my personal comfort zone nowadays, and at this stage of my life, even that might be pushing it... :)

I'll be raising a glass to Mr Freedman and his crew tonight, sounds like they've dealt with some serious stuff quite admirably...

I sure hope Charlie Doane is OK, last time I heard, he was planning on leaving Newport with LUNACY on or about the 27th of October, bound for Bermuda... There's been no update on his blog in well over a week, which I would have expected by now if he was either still sitting in Newport, or had reached Bermuda by now...

So, guess I'll be raising a glass to Charlie and LUNACY, as well...
 

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Here's a report forwarded to me by a friend, from Eric Freedman aboard the Amel 53 KIMBERLITE... Eric is a VERY experienced offshore sailor, particularly on the route from NY to the Caribbean, which he generally makes non-stop every year. I've never had the pleasure of meeting Eric, but this guy is The Real Deal, no question about it. And a true master of understatement when it comes to dealing with heavy weather offshore, as this write-up from OCEAN NAVIGATOR attests... :))

Prepare for survival conditions - Ocean Navigator - May/June 2011
Here's an interesting statement from a very experienced salt like Eric:

We had spoken via high frequency radio with Herb Hilgenberg, the weather router located in Canada, before our departure. As far as I am concerned Hilgenberg is the guru of Atlantic weather.

The forecast was for winds from the west at 40 knots, gusting to 50 for the next 24 hours.

Knowing that we were well prepared for these conditions, Hilgenberg gave us the green light to go.
 

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NDBC - Station 44014 64 miles east of Va. Beach.

Not my idea of fun.

Anyone have an idea where the current location of the western wall of the stream is east of Va. ?
This weather was very well forecast, days in advance...

So, how on earth did these folks find themselves 50 miles off Cape Hatteras last night??? UFB...

Note to self: Never, ever, name your boat the SEA HOLE...

:))

PORTSMOUTH, Va. - The Coast Guard rescued a man and a woman Saturday from their sailboat, 50 miles east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.

Watchstanders at the Coast Guard 5th District received an emergency alert from a electronic positioning indicator radio beacon at approximately 5 p.m. The watchstanders launched an MH-60 Jayhawk helicopter crew from Air Station Elizabeth City, North Carolina, and used the Automated Mutual-Assistance Vessel Rescue program to identify and divert the merchant vessel Horizon Trader to assist.

The crew of the Horizon Trader arrived on scene and relayed to the Coast Guard that the crew of the sailboat were worried about the weather and requested an evacuation.

The Jayhawk crew arrived on scene and located the boaters at approximately 7 p.m. Saturday. The man and the woman were hoisted into the helicopter and taken to Coast Guard Air Station Elizabeth City.

No injuries were reported.

DVIDS - Video - Coast Guard Rescues Two From Distressed Sailboat
 

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This weather was very well forecast, days in advance...

So, how on earth did these folks find themselves 50 miles off Cape Hatteras last night??? UFB...

Note to self: Never, ever, name your boat the SEA HOLE...

:))
"Coast Guard Rescues Two From Distressed Sailboat"

Sounds like the title was very gracious.

In fairness, it does look like their genny was shredded.
 

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Sailboat Reboot
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One other thing that must be remembered is that, in spite of any requirements for offshore experience (to Bermuda in May-June for example), this is the first serious (and it can be very serious) offshore passage for many. I know I am a different sailor than I was in 2009 when we did this route.
HAHA

I did my first solo offshore in 2009!

I agree. I am a different sailor too. Older!

Smarter?

Fair winds and following seas:)
 
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